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Barnett Production Comparison to Marcellus

A lot of people seem to be using the Barnett Shale production experience as a comparison for Marcellus. In fact, one of the royalty calculators uses Barnett depletion rates to generate revenue data. A concern has surfaced with this through an analysis of Barnett IP and EUR by Arthur Berman in which he suggested that the Barnett production experience has been relatively poor compared to the hope/hype. If Marcellus plays out the same way, it will be very disappointing. Berman's presentation was at the 2009 ASPO International Peak Oil Confence held last August. Does anyone have information to counter his study? ray c

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Permalink Reply by Greg Ricks on February 12, 2010 at 12:16pm
Ray,

If the results were viewed as poor by Cheasepeake, etc, why would they be so interested in Marcellus? I think that if they were burned once they would proceed with caution the second time around.
Sorry, this is just a basic observation.
Could you enlighten me as to who Arthur Berman is and what is the ASPO Internation Peak Oil Conference all about?
Thanks!
Permalink Reply by Raymond Calhoun on February 12, 2010 at 12:41pm
Ruby,
thanks a lot. I will access. ray
Permalink Reply by Raymond Calhoun on February 12, 2010 at 12:42pm
Rick,
don't know who Berman is other than he must be some kind of expert on gas. i'm going to be accessing rebuttal information provided by someone else and will try to remember to keep you in the loop. ray
Permalink Reply by Raymond Calhoun on February 24, 2010 at 9:10pm
I agree. Hope it's not another "bubble" of hope/hype/speculation. Looking more solid as time goes by, but still haven't found any solid counter arguments to Art Berman's analysis.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 9, 2010 at 6:55pm
What you all miss is that the Marcellus is just the tip of the Iceberg.. Below it sits the Utica Shale as well as several other formations in NYS.. The initial Utica well in In Canada/upstate NY is producing 6-12MCF/d and the Utica is 10 times thicker than the marcellus..

Mike is right, companies are not paying 30k an acre between them for no reason...
slowly but surely the truth is coming out.. we are sitting on the largest NAT GAS fields in the world.. If the Marcellus is 500-1,300 TFC and the UTICA is 10 times thicker and just as large in area if you count Canadian section.. well you do the math.. and this does not count the Onieda, and Herkimer etc..
anywhwere you drill you get gas..
Permalink Reply by ron lutz on March 11, 2010 at 7:49am
BINGO, You hit the nail on the head. These multiple shale formations is the dirty little secret that the gas companies have not been telling us.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 9, 2010 at 6:56pm
and no one dumps 40 Billion dollars for no good reason...
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 9, 2010 at 7:53pm
Well, you need to understand where the skeletons are in OBAMA land.. One of the biggest supporters and backers of the OBAMA bid for Presidency is none other than George Soros himself. through his undying efforts ;-) with Moveon.org and Pro -Publica..
As it turns out, Mr Soros is also and major investor in a VERY large LNG terminal and production Facility in New Guinea (11 Billion Dollars) whose goal was to export and Deliver NAT GAS the USA. Well with the move by EXXON and NYS being the top of the IceCReam Cone so to speak of the GAS world... It is his position to delay and postpone NG production in NY as much as possible as long as possible.. 90% of the bad publicity about NG is coming from Pro Publica.. check for yourself..
So you see , MR. OBAMA must bite the hand that fed him.. or else, which by certain timing will be OBAMA second term, where he has nothing to lose... (except a second term)
Politics makes strange bed fellows.. and sometimes those same bedfellows become bitter enemies..
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 9, 2010 at 7:55pm
Also , the Coal states are not pissed off.. They are sitting on 11 million acres of prime gas lands.. they are just mad that they are late to the game...
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 10, 2010 at 10:07am
Many people are aware of the position of Coal presently, but Gas is number 2 in the country as well, and nearly every acre of land in PA sits on one of the largest NAT GAS fields in the world, the Geology bares this out.
And in the end GAS just burns cleaner than coal, making the Greenies happy and it should make the Coal companies happy, as they are sitting on not one but 2 gold mines for enegy for the foreseable future..
Imagine all the land that was worked out by coal mining can now be recycled into GAS production..
NO matter how hard the USA tries to push GAS as a future fuel, it will take at least 20-30 years to replace all the coal fired powerplants and most likely longer, so the coal compnies should be happy as hell. And if ongoing research is an indicator, Coal is the single largest soource of Carbon around, so maybe some new chemical processing porcess, will cheaply convert Coal to eitehr OIl or Gas or both.

the only major issue here will be a breakthrough in Hydrogen technology, which will negate both gas and coal and nuclear as well as every other form of energy

and some home grown genius in Indiana already figured it out (1998) but was poisoned within a few months and his work disappeared.. additionally , there is a start up company in Alabama, that figured out how to use Biologic enzymes and microbes to create vast amounts of NG using Garbage Dumps.. workign with US Airforce now

So any money that can be gotten now, I think should be taken, as it's only a matter of time before many more people either here or in other countries figure out a cheaper solution..
Permalink Reply by Bison Head on March 10, 2010 at 7:57pm
that makes sense. there is more lurking on the political front for sure. while Cramer is a clown and i am still waiting for my CHK stock to recover, i think he is setting himself up through CHK endorsement to be early to roll into the domestic energy winners of 2012 and on. what has encouraged me most to hold out is the entry by international firms in the play.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on March 11, 2010 at 11:38am
Total, BP, EXXON, Shell, Mitsui, Chevron are all now heavily involved with this play. all told about 178 billion dollars has chanegd hands over the last 6 months..
And I am rsonally aware of the Chinese poking around too as well as the Turks and russians..

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