Decent report or rubbish?

I found this article:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/569451-controversy-on-shale-gas-boo...

 

Now, maybe this guy is talking his book as he owns quite a few coal stocks.  But, his argument makes some sense.  I know one thing, the sign-on bonus is the only thing we can count on.  And i have doubts Shell will build an ethane cracker in PA. 

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Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on May 8, 2012 at 9:48pm
First off "Seeking Alpha" is a joke...I mean is anyone with intelligence going to listen to "free advice." Second of all, just last week "Seeking Alpha" was touting and praising Devon Energy as an outperform energy stock with a target price of $90.00 plus...now that they have plummeted to $64 and some change...they have a new target price of 70-72. Thirdly, read the rebuttal by Festivus...a thesis is only as good as the info plugged into it...Mark Anthony's has major flaws and some how forgets the simple basic economic principle called "supply and demand. Ask your self this question...if Mark Anthony is so smart why isn't he crunching numbers with an oil and gas company. Exactly!!!!
Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on May 8, 2012 at 10:45pm
For facts that explain why coal will never be KING again...go to http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/The-Impossibility-of-Forecas...

This Link was posted earlier by Matthew Santiago and is titled "The impossibility of forecasting natural gas markets."
Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on May 8, 2012 at 11:54pm

An excellent article by Rutt Bridges, everyone should take the time to read.

"dan on May 08 2012 said:
Although this article is from Judith Curry's blog (Climate, etc), it's not by Judith -- it's actually an excellent guest article by Rutt Bridges."
 
Coal has a great future - exported to China and India.
Natural Gas has a great future - here - we just have to await demand to catch up with current supply.
 
All IMHO,
                  JS

 

Permalink Reply by Chartist on May 9, 2012 at 5:30am

Junkie, your response is interesting, but doesn't say much.  Stock prices rarely reflect true value and are subject to supply/demand.  Supply and demand is why nat gas is currently under $2.50.....The question I have is if a well is 80% depleted after two years, why not just shut it in and move on?  Once fracked, are the wells on auto pilot for 20 years or do they need constant work?  Net present value isn't good for a 20 year well according to the author.  But this is something I would look at if thinking about selling my mineral rights.

Permalink Reply by Jimmy Wilson on May 9, 2012 at 6:47am

One year later and the Buell 5H is still doing 10 million a day (With the valve half closed) and the liquids production is actually getting better, there is more gas in these 15 counties of Appalachia than we can use in 100 lifetimes.

Permalink Reply by JR on May 9, 2012 at 7:44am

Why would all the major players in the industry be moving to our area to build more wells, that would essentially be $millions in losses every single time?  How do they stay in business?  Yet another armchair expert.

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