Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on June 5, 2012 at 4:16pm

Surfs up...time to hang ten again!!!

Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on June 5, 2012 at 4:52pm

EUR estimates are subjective...and are usually a low ball estimate of the true potential of the well or play in question.

Permalink Reply by Marcus Grayson on June 5, 2012 at 11:51pm

That's simply not true.  EUR for the Barnett was only 42% of the original estimate.  That's both bad math and dubious accounting.  Many of these major shale plays have seen questionable EUR for a variety of companies.

Powers Energy Investor is an industry publication. In its April 15, 2011 edition it stated:“another significant misconception surrounding the Fayetteville is the size of EUR per well…on its Q2 2011 earnings call, CEO Aubrey McClendon announced that it had moved up its EUR per…well from 2.4 Bcf to 2.6 Bcf. To put into perspective how ridiculous CHKs claim of 2.6 Bcf is, consider the following: of the company’s 742 operated wells completed on the Fayetteville only 66 (9%) have produced more than 1 Bcf and none have produced more than 1.7 Bcf. CHKs average Fayetteville well has produced only 541 mcf.”

That comes from Energy Policy Forum.  Here is a link to the entire piece: http://energypolicyforum.com/?p=431

Reserves are overestimated because it pays to over promise and under deliver.  By the time the truth comes out investment capital and loans have already been put in place and there's no recourse for the debtor.  Mark-to-market is dangerous, if for no other reason than it helps perpetuate the 100 years of natural gas myth.

Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on June 6, 2012 at 7:23pm

Got any "Goat Milk" Marcus? Kind of funny you’re refuting me from one of the most anti-fracking persons on the planet...Deborah Rogers. And yes...she is the founder of Energy Policy Forum.

http://eidmarcellus.org/marcellus-shale/deborah-rogers-goat-farmer-...

Permalink Reply by Marcus Grayson on June 11, 2012 at 11:36pm

She's an anti-fracking whackadoo, yes.  But the math still doesn't add up.  Google "Arthur Berman" and read what he has to say about shale economics. He is one of the world's most respected petroleum geologists (Colorado School of Mines grad, I believe) and he is a skeptic.  I can both support domestic drilling AND demand true accounting from the companies doing the drilling.  The truth is never incongruous with anything but a lie.

Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on June 11, 2012 at 11:56pm

Yea...I see who you hang with. I assure you if I'm going to refute someone pro fracking, and I'm pro fracking, I sure the hell aren't going to pick a anti-fracking website....period....unless I am anti-fracking myself. As far as Auther Berman goes....whats your point...I guess all the dumb geologist work for the drilling companies at 10 times his salary.

Permalink Reply by Marcus Grayson on June 12, 2012 at 12:13am

Berman is highly respected and despised.  He's extremely pro-oil and gas.  He's also a realist.  Companies lie about EUR, he calls them out, they smear him.  It's just part of the show.  As far as company geologists go, there's a pretty big divide between great and average.  CHK has some great people yet somehow they missed the entire western part of the oil window.  Devon's people are simply smarter and frankly much better with their investor's money.  As a shareholder I appreciate how they operate.

As far as the anti-fracking crowd goes, I generally regard them with a low grade hostility and assume that they're just leftover commies.  However, they are entitled to report company numbers just as anyone else is.  Those numbers--no matter who reports them--show that EUR is often miscalculated.  Shale plays are profitable when certain variables exist.  When they do not exist, they are not.  Why are we arguing about this?  One of the reasons DVN is in the western part of the play is because the economics of oil--shallow oil at that--are much better than deeper gas.  The numbers are irrefutable.  Why am i the crazy one because I demand accountability from those in charge?  

Permalink Reply by Black Gold Junkie on June 12, 2012 at 12:22am

Nice recovery...there's a hundred different sites where you could have found the same numbers...sites that are non-biassed...but you just happen to pick one of the most anti-fracking persons on the planet...just dumb luck I suppose.

Permalink Reply by Marcus Grayson on June 12, 2012 at 12:29am

It's a site that I have bookmarked and happened to be pouring over at the time of our discussion.  I read from many sources, some that I don't agree with.  It's that whole "well-rounded" bullshit that they pushed on me in my formative college years, I suppose.  

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