Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Lynn Wigglesworth on September 3, 2010 at 2:07pm

That's been my thinking all along, and I'm trying to take the long-term view. I was wondering how many people are in my position, though...surrounded by East-leased land (probably a lot in Tioga Co.). I wonder if I lease with whoever wins the TTLC bid with a great lease (with a real PUGH clause, etc), would East ever be interested in buying/swapping for that lease? They won't accept any of those addenda now, so why would they accept them (AND a higher royalty than they are willing to give) in a traded lease? So will I be stuck here, in between East units, leased to someone else? There is a possibility for a vertical well on my property, but would whoever leases me want to do that? These are the times I wish a had a crystal ball.

Permalink Reply by Josie on September 3, 2010 at 3:07pm

Taking the long-term view is really hard. But when I got to thinking about it today after everything that has been written here this week, I had to remind myself why I am in this game in the first place.

I think that once the Lease Sale is completed, the whole game will change in that there will be established a lease that is landowner friendly and so any people that are Not in the Coalition Lease sale will benefit too later on.

And as far as forced pooling is concerned (A fear I have been fighting with) I think that as long as people are opening trying to lease their property and trying to make the best deal, that then they can not be determined to be holdouts. How can you be a hold out if you are working your hardest to be leased and you are being reasonable?

As far as what might happen to anyones parcel once a 3rd party owns the lease seem pretty simple to me; that being the fact that these people are in the game only to make money and the winning bidder is not going to bid if he does not already know what he will do with each parcel. In the end, the gas comes out of the ground.......no matter what and if we get a great lease out of the lease sale then, we win the game. And, knowing that the lease will be written owner friendly allowing that the O&G company that gets it will have to do sometoing with it iin a limted period of time is really fantastic.

Permalink Reply by Lynn Wigglesworth on September 3, 2010 at 3:31pm

I guess I'm not as optimistic about this lease sale. I can't imagine any company willing to lease all the odds and ends of Tioga Co. at a decent price. I wonder how many contiguous acres big enough to make a unit are included in the TTLC sale? The winning company will be forced to lease a lot of land it doesn't need or want...small parcels, surrounded by East. I wonder what will happen to that land.

If forced pooling comes to be, I don't think it matters why you aren't leased...if you are in the way of a unit, you get included, period.

I don't think having an 'established lease' out there will change other company's leases, especially East's. The Friendsville lease is very landowner friendly, but not many companies use it. In fact, I based my addendum (which East rejected) on parts of the Friendsville lease.

Permalink Reply by Josie on September 3, 2010 at 3:36pm

Lynn,

I am going to take the weekend off and am looking forward to next week. I have a very positive "Gut Feeling" about the future.

Best!
Josie

Permalink Reply by paleface on September 3, 2010 at 9:32pm

This is my opinion for what its worth I think Shell will win the auction,they have the most irons in the fire?

Permalink Reply by Lynn Wigglesworth on September 4, 2010 at 9:03am

But will they bid more than the $2000/15% they offer now?

Permalink Reply by paleface on September 4, 2010 at 11:16am

Yes I think twinn tiers will get a better lease.

Permalink Reply by Josie on September 4, 2010 at 11:27am

I think "The Lease" is the strongest thing Twin has to offer. I also think they will get royalty.......and royalty will change the game for those who wait for it....and if shell wins the offer, then we are assured of a company with the deepest pockets in the business.

If twin can get 16% to 18% more royalty....well, do the calculations to see how you will be much bettr ahead.

Lease & % Royalty is going to be a game changer for those who wait...

Permalink Reply by Lynn Wigglesworth on September 4, 2010 at 11:51am

I question why Shell/East would ever bid on TTLC's auction if they already won't pay a higher royalty or accept landowner-friendly addenda? They CLAIM, for example, to really want my land (I'm in the way of one of their horizonals), but won't budge an inch on their set terms. WHY would they pay to go through TTLC so they can offer a higher royalty and better lease (and be forced to lease any property in the TTLC, whether they want it or not) when they won't do it now for properties they claim to need? It would be far more cost-effective for them to take the money and offer it directly to the landowners of properties they need to fill out units.

Permalink Reply by Josie on September 4, 2010 at 12:01pm

Lynn wrote: "I question why Shell/East would ever bid on TTLC's auction if they already won't pay a higher royalty or accept landowner-friendly addenda? They CLAIM, for example, to really want my land (I'm in the way of one of their horizonals), but won't budge an inch on their set terms. WHY would they pay to go through TTLC so they can offer a higher royalty and better lease (and be forced to lease any property in the TTLC, whether they want it or not) when they won't do it now for properties they claim to need? It would be far more cost-effective for them to take the money and offer it directly to the landowners of properties they need to fill out units."

My reply:

Because it will be their last chance to get you. After the Lease Sale they will have to buy you at an even higher price and like you say, they need you.

Permalink Reply by Lynn Wigglesworth on September 4, 2010 at 12:42pm

So why aren't they knocking on my door now, trying to make a deal? I made it clear that I was willing to deal, but their offer last year was $1500/15%, take it or leave it. Then I got a 'this is your last chance to be in a unit' letter in May, offer a non-surface lease (no terms listed). Are they waiting for something (like forced pooling) or do they not have any intention of finishing that well, or do they not care that they can't run one of the horizontals without my lease?

Permalink Reply by Ann Ticopa on September 4, 2010 at 12:50pm

It won't be their last chance if forced pooling is enacted. And if eminent domain for gathering pipelines also becomes law, that would probably override the non-surface provision for non-consenting force pooled landowners.