Is anyone in the group knowledgeable about current events, particularly near Overbrook Road?  What type of unitization is in process for what well?

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"If Ferree has been put into sales I would think everything from Reno west could be."

In the recent Rex Presentation (Jan 15) Reno IP has been reported at >10 Million cubic feet / day.  So I think that Reno has been in production.  Such a high production number probably means that Reno is mostly dry.  Ferree may be "dryish".  There is a "drying" trend going South East from Ferree.

"It will be interesting to see where Rex concentrates its likely reduced Capital budget."

Rex's best wells are the three Behm wells on old 68 in Forward Township.  These are Super Frac wells.  There are a few wells with more overall production in Butler County but they are either "dry" (Pajer - Buffalo Township) or have been producing much longer (Grosick 5H - Lancaster Township, Drushel 3H- Jackson Township, Knauff P 1 - Forward Township).

Rex is going ahead with the Harvey Pad (border of Forward and Penn Townships).  The recently permited Sharlow wells are most likely dry.  So we shall see what happens there.  I also saw a Powell North Unit go by.

Phil

FMV, are we talking about a quadruple play, here? Not sure I understand the 4 unit comment. One unit per zone?  Why wouldn't they drill all 4 at one time?

Thanks.

RB

RB,

So far the existing two zone plays have been drilled from the same unit.  Rex Baillie, Ferree, Michael and XTO Hixon to name a few.

There are more complicated situations like the Shipley Unit.  So far, the Shipley is just three Marcellus laterals but the Unit Designation specifically limits the allowable zone to the Marcellus.  I don't know exactly why this is.  What do they do if they want to drill the Upper Devonian?  I don't know but it is likely to involve creating another unit.

Phil

RB, Phil,

Perhaps I phrased that incorrectly. 

Ya, it is still possibly a "quadruple play". 

You could end up with 4 wells in 1 Unit or 4 separate Units.

I guess it just depends on how they want to do the units.

Lotta Marcellus to drill yet, so I don't think you are gonna see a lot of "quads" for a while.

Cheers

FMV,

I see that the Michael 7HR (Rhinestreet???) was drilled in August but plugged in September.  Maybe it was just a test well to begin with. ??

XTO drilled and completed the Utica Patton Well.  That will be the Utica test for this area.  Nearby Utica well have not been good.  It will be interesting to see the production numbers from the Patton well.

Down in Washington and Greene counties the Utica wells look much better.

Phil

Hey Phil,

A while back Rex was bragging a bit about the Cheesman being a bit of a Utica gusher. Haven't heard much since.  Decline curve real bad maybe??

I don't expect to see a whole lot of Utica until the others are tapped out. Extra depth and cost and such.  Unless...

FMV,

In three years, Cheeseman made it to about a million Mcf of dry gas,  Say $3.00 net to Rex per Mcf.  That's $3 million dollars in three years for a well that cost >$10 million.  The decline has been heavy and the chance of getting anywhere near $10 million back looks very unlikely.

There were two other Utica well I think over in Beaver County.  Has anybody heard about them???...  I didn't think so.

From the recent Range maps, the Utica looks better around here than up by Portersville.  As I said, the XTO well will be interesting.

Phil

Rex was claiming at the time 9.2 MMcfe/d.

Darn, as soon as start doing million millions I get lost!  LOL

I have lost the decimal point or something... at 3 bucks 9.2 is how much a day?

Rounding off I am coming up with 30 grand a day which would make back the 10 mil in a year or so???

FMV,

The numbers I'm using are right out of the PADEP production report, complete up to June 2014.  In three years the well produced 1 million thousand cubic feet.  At $3/thousand cubic feet (net to Rex) that is 3 million dollars total in three years.

The 9.2 Million cubic feet/day number didn't last a week.  In year 2 the average production was about 0.5 million cubic feet/day.

Rex hasn't even mentioned this well for some time.

Phil

Phil,

"The 9.2 Million cubic feet/day number didn't last a week.  In year 2 the average production was about 0.5 million cubic feet/day"

Thats not a decline curve, thats a straight line down!!

Was not questioning you numbers but was not expecting that kind of drop off. Rather shocked I am. lol

Not a good sign for the Utica.

 

Phil,

Speaking of decline curves,,,in general have they turned out to be steeper than expected?

I have not been following this stuff as close as I used to, and anyway I get lost dealing with anything over a 6 digit number, so I ask the expert. (Ya you are!)

The last time I tried to parse a DEP production report I got completely lost attempting to compare wells mainly because of the difference in production days and wondering if some of them could have been "throttled back" for any length of time in the reporting period.

And if the Cheesman is any type of indicator ... Rex may not have outright lied, just left out the bad parts... pretty hard to believe what the O/G companies say.

Cheers

"Speaking of decline curves,,,in general have they turned out to be steeper than expected?"

For our local Marcellus shale, no.  I don't know what Rex expected from the Cheeseman Utica but I'm sure they were disappointed.

How about the Rex Utica wells in Guernsey County, Ohio.... In the course of less than a year, the oil production has fallen form 175 barrel/day to 20 barrels/day.  I'm sure they are not happy about that either.

 "pretty hard to believe what the O/G companies say."

Impossible to believe.

Phil

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