http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2015/09/24/colder-than-...

Colder-Than-Normal Winter Good News for Chesapeake, Rice Energy

Citigroup’s Robert Morris and team note that the investment bank’s meteorologist expects a “colder-than-normal winter” which would be good news for stocks like Chesapeake Energy(CHK), Southwestern Energy (SWN), Cabot Oil & Gas (COG), Eclipse Resources (ECR),Rice Energy (RICE), and Range Resources (RRC). They explain:

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg News

Citi’s Meteorologist recently issued his initial…winter weather outlook calling for a ~4% colder-than-normal upcoming winter, although this would be ~1% warmer than last winter. Notably, actual [Heating Degree Days, or HDDs,] last winter ended up being within <1% of Citi’s original winter weather forecast issued at this same time one year ago. However, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for a warmer-than-normal first half to the winter, including in the greater population-weighted demand Northeast region, counter to Citi’s forecast. Nonetheless, we estimate every 1% deviation from normal during the winter (November-March) equates to ~50 Bcf of incremental natural gas heating demand, all else being equal and apart from relative price-driven variations in coal-to-gas switching. Our current 2016 composite spot natural gas price forecast of $3.00/MMBtu (Citi’s official forecast is the Commodities Team’s $3.00/MMBtu Henry Hub forecast) is based on the assumption of normal weather going forward. But as we outlined in our recent Summer Wrap-Up note, a 4% colder-than-normal winter, all else being equal, would lift our 2016 composite spot forecast to $3.20/MMBtu. Notably, a colder-than-normal winter would likely bolster momentum for the more natural gas-leveraged E&P stocks including Chesapeake Energy, Southwestern Energy, Cabot Oil & Gas, Eclipse Resources, Rice Energy, and Range Resources. But we would also point out that Citi’s outlook for much colder temperatures in the Northeast also carries the risk of negatively impacting Appalachian and Utica producers if well freeze-offs and operational disruptions occur, as has often happened in the past during periods of extreme cold or harsh weather.

Shares of Chesapeake Energy have ticked up 0.2% to $7.59 at 2:10 p.m. today, while Southwestern Energy has declined 0.5% to $13.25, Cabot Oil & Gas has gained 2% to $24.06, Rice Energy has risen 1.9% to $18.00, Eclipse Resources has tumbled 5% to $2.76, and Range Resources has advanced 0.9% to $34.96.

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I wonder if Citigroup is heavily invested in CHK. Better yet are they counting on a large drop about the time CHK declares bankruptcy?

My neighbor says it's going to be a warm winter. He doesn't tell stories to try and persuade people to do his bidding so you can trust him. We all know where you'll end up if you Trust Wall Street.

Did you know the Kensington Plant is moving Ohio's NGLs out the door at a phenomenal rate? The Kensington employees are aware of that and don't mind discussing it.That brings to mind the Interstate Commerce laws. Federal Laws that forbid taking a product from an owner using fraud & deception then shipping the product across state lines.There are state laws being violated as well, but no one is home in Columbus.

My Royalty Statement sent to me by the USPS shows no deductions, when in fact we all have deductions, another Federal Crime.

If there are any under production landowners on this site, you are being stolen from even though CHK has supposedly reduced production.

A smart group of landowners would be sticking together (realizing the big money landowner in your area won't participate for good reasons) and taking pictures of all the Meters at the well head monthly with date and time stamps to provide evidence of the volume of well products being taken. Use the Form provided by the ODNR for reporting well volumes and send a copy of the pictures & form to Tax Commissioner Testa. He has the power to act when he suspects fraud in reporting well production volumes. Notice I said POWER, but does he have the WILL?

These pictures will come in handy when you go to court. No one else will know the volumes of actual well products taken, and I doubt CHK could dispute a picture of the reading with time stamps.

One more thing. It appears that in each Unit there is always one landowner who is doing very well and won't discuss the details with his neighbors.

This must be the remaining 30% that Abrahm Lustgarten spoke about his 2013 interview and story when he reported that 70% of the US landowners are being paid 10% of what their leases call for by CHK. The remaining 30% for some reason may be getting closer to their lease royalty amount, but I suspect CHK short changes them as well. I know which group I fall into, but I wouldn't call my payout a royalty, it's more like a formality used by CHK to say they gave me something. Something based on imaginings and fraud.

Would whoever has been posting my discussion on the internet, please post this one. The picture idea, if implemented would really upset the little man at the top of CHK.

Every post you whine and complain, it is getting very old and you are ruining this site.  No matter what the topic is you always spin the conversation around to "the massive theft at the Buck 1H well.". If you are truly a victim of theft hire a lawyer and take Chesapeake to court.  Bitching and moaning on a website will do you no good.  Bitching and moaning to politicians will do you no good.  You said it yourself "Notice I said POWER, but does he have WILL.".  Unless your willing to take them to court, you are wasting your time on this site.  Maybe its only me, but I'm willing to bet that others feel the same way.

alexander,

Actually, Ron is on top of keeping us all updated with various details not normally found easily.

Yes, there are a bunch of us holding on and do appreciate Ron's findings.

 I am a large landowner and have been leased for a long while.

My advice to you is to just pay attention and maybe you'll even discover for yourself.

Dear Alexander,

I really have enjoyed taking a beating on my royalties this past 20 months.

We have a very good well with lots of oil and gas. NGLs? I won't go there since it isn't a happy story and might upset a landman or two.

I have enjoyed working on my vehicles in this nice weather knowing a new vehicle is out of my reach. I believe Doug Lawler may be using the money I should have gotten to buy his 3rd Bently. He no doubt is enjoying our money but that's OK, and if it wasn't I wouldn't talk about it, I don't want to upset those who haven't had that experience of being shorted a royalty yet.

A group of us will be getting a Division Order for Paige Well 5H, or not, showing our portion of ownership of 1/2 acre each in a +500 acre unit to hold us by production 1250 feet from the lateral, but that's OK, royalty payments of $15 an acre x half an acre don't amount to much.

Aren't you the person that had my comments removed by Keith a few weeks back?

First, I have no idea what you are speaking about when you mention your comments.  Second, I think every one knows you feel you got shorted royalties.  Bringing it up in almost every thread is getting old.  My only point is to do something about it instead of just bringing it up on here.  If you are getting shorted I hope you take them to court and get paid plus interest and other penalties.  Third, I have no idea how much additional acreage you have in addition to the 1/2 acre in the Paige Well.  If you have a decent lease then your additional acreage should not be HBP only the 1/2 acre in the unit.

Dear Alexander,

  1) You can climb a fence and tell people I told you to do it and the judge will laugh and ask you if you: "Would jump off of a bridge if Ron Hale told you to do it". Of course not.

2) I have seen detailed pictures of Utica Well Pads, the gauges and meters are all there for you to take pictures of. No one else is monitoring those meters so you might get surprised by the real volume being taken.

3) If landowners stuck together and took pictures at the well head each month -

This statement assumes that someone in the Unit owned the property where the well was located. You can walk on private property with the owners permission, once again assuming he is in the Unit and gives you permission. This wasn't meant to be a procedure, just a very good idea.

4) This theft is nothing like any landowners in OH, WV or PA has ever experienced. It is demoralizing, and is ruining our faith in our Local, State and Federal Governments.

5) I have written letters to everyone including the President on behalf of Appalachia, I have spoken out when others have remained silent, or told of their new found riches and huge volume of well production. Those folks are the minority and are also seeing a drop in their royalties.

6) I believe a solution to our underpayment of royalties is now within reach. I've never stopped talking to people about this issue. I believe educating landowners gives them a plan for going forward, and they begin to act and have hope instead of stewing alone.   .

One more thing, be watching the News in Ohio for the CAUV Class Action Suit. All CAUV landowners will automatically be included, per the meeting I went to last month. I talked with 2 Ohio Representatives about our royalty issue after the meeting. One said he would look into Chesapeake after the CAUV issue was addressed.

I'll try to add some jokes and good stories to the website in the future. I have some Chipmunk Energy stories that will crack you up Alexander.

Most well pads are fenced and locked and considered private property. I wouldn't publicly endorse trespassing and potentially doing something dangerous to get some pictures of the Barton charts on location. Would you even know where to look for the charts and how to read them correctly?

I doubt there are many paper charts in use recording thousands of MCF/D on shale wells.  Measurement is generally handled by an electronic recording and reporting meter.

KAR,

      See above for the fence crossing issue.

I've worked on and read most recorders, indicators, and meters used in military vessels, and generation stations. I know my way around and have certifications issued by the toughest Regulatory Agency in the US. I did this for more years than I care to discuss.

I'm afraid the oil and gas industry doesn't impress me with it's complexity, and I easily see through all the hype that scares most people away from taking on the big O&G companies.

I'm the type of landowner that O&G company ceo should never have crossed, since I I know the laws as well.

This is not bragging, it's fact.

 I by all means have a very small stake in this only 3 acres but I have been watching reports and the lawsuits that have been popping up just about everywhere Chesapeake sets up shop. I read about 440 landowners in Texas suing CHK for withholding and under paying royalties. We started out seeing between 1000.00 to 1100.00 the first couple months and have watched it drop every month since then. We are lucky to see 120.00 to 130.00 these days. Like I said at the start I have a very small stake in this I can't even begin to imagine how much CHK is milking the those with a bigger stake in this. 

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