All Discussions Tagged 'BusinessNews' - GoMarcellusShale.com
2024-03-29T11:02:16Z
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Commentary: Interior leadership and Biden on Climate Change security Dr. Dan FineSpecial to the Daily Times
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2021-03-03:2274639:Topic:885147
2021-03-03T01:43:20.139Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2021/02/25/opinion-dan-fine-interior-leadership-and-biden-climate-change-security/6807685002/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The full article</a></p>
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<p>"With the Department of Interior under the leadership of Interior secretary nominee Deb Haaland, the Biden Administration would open the way towards energy and climate. No longer would federal land and its uses be separate from social and cultural considerations of…</p>
<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/opinion/columnists/2021/02/25/opinion-dan-fine-interior-leadership-and-biden-climate-change-security/6807685002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The full article</a></p>
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<p>"With the Department of Interior under the leadership of Interior secretary nominee Deb Haaland, the Biden Administration would open the way towards energy and climate. No longer would federal land and its uses be separate from social and cultural considerations of climate and its change.</p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">Change is not narrowly defined as “global warming.” It is set in such policy terms as “security.” </p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">What have the California forest fires in common with the Texas polar freeze? </p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">A pandemic-surviving population sees and fears “security” or systemic change in climate. It was also distressed that the price of San Juan natural gas increased from $2.00 to $100.00 overnight in reaction to the Texas grid power failure and ban on its natural gas production export to Mexico and other states.</p>
<img class="gnt_em_img_i" alt="Daniel Fine" src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a667e60ad9b334abccba15c042b2f2da1bbfca31/c=46-0-478-576/local/-/media/2017/10/16/TXNMGroup/Farmington/636437589640831027-FMN-DANIEL-FINE.jpg?width=300&height=400&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp"/><br />
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<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">So far, President Biden is pursuing a strategy to remove carbon from oil and gas by limiting its production. This could remove 40% in transportation by cars and trucks</p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">Not so easy as Bill Gates says. Yet the electric and hydrogen displacement of the combustion engine is folded into a minimum 1.6 trillion dollar infrastructure investment which changes all the spread sheets in business capital spending."</p>
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<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">As this Administration puts values before transactions (Trump) to restore American leadership of globalization among European powers, it must recognize Europe on energy and climate: all renewable as opposed to petroleum in transportation technology in five or six years. By rules and laws from EU Government? Yes.</p>
Daniel Fine weighs in on incoming Biden administration, energy and pandemic
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2021-01-08:2274639:Topic:860715
2021-01-08T01:34:39.797Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2021/01/02/commentary-look-incoming-biden-administration-and-energy/4091136001/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Dr. Fine's full column</a></p>
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<div class="gnt_ar_b"><img alt="Daniel Fine" class="gnt_em_img_i" src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a667e60ad9b334abccba15c042b2f2da1bbfca31/c=46-0-478-576/local/-/media/2017/10/16/TXNMGroup/Farmington/636437589640831027-FMN-DANIEL-FINE.jpg?width=300&height=400&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp"></img></div>
<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/2021/01/02/commentary-look-incoming-biden-administration-and-energy/4091136001/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Dr. Fine's full column</a></p>
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<div class="gnt_ar_b"><img class="gnt_em_img_i" src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/-mm-/a667e60ad9b334abccba15c042b2f2da1bbfca31/c=46-0-478-576/local/-/media/2017/10/16/TXNMGroup/Farmington/636437589640831027-FMN-DANIEL-FINE.jpg?width=300&height=400&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp" alt="Daniel Fine"/><div class="gnt_em_img_ccw gnt_em_img_ccw__cap gnt_em_img_ccw__crd"></div>
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<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">The San Juan Basin, the Four Corners and New Mexico at the end of the Year of Pandemic await the arrival of vaccines for the general public and voting in Georgia. The first is a matter of months and the second in a week. </p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">The Biden-Harris transition closes with the swearing-in ceremony and a new president over the Federal Republic of the United States. Georgia’s run-off Senate election decides the future of his Administration. It also determines the short and long-term future of the Republican Party.</p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">President Joe Biden will have no Republican buffer against his program of progressive political change if Georgia chooses the Democrats. </p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">The paper ballot enigma and Republican division over the electoral outcome for president as well as a 1,400 difference in the stimulus checks per the qualified between Republican Party (conservatives) and Democratic Party (progressives) are in play. Meanwhile President Donald Trump can offer himself now or in the future as having made and led a populist Republican Party. It would be surprising if Georgia does not elect two Democratic Party senators.</p>
<p class="gnt_ar_b_p">With that the Senate must vote on Interior Secretary-Designee Deb Haaland. If there is a status quo Senate or a Republican Party majority, she would still win and become Secretary of the Interior with control of the 94% of federal lands in and around the San Juan Basin, San Juan County and much of the Four Corners, as well as federal lands in the Permian Basin."</p>
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New Mexico watching as Texas considers limits on oil production By Jens Gould jgould@sfnewmexican.com Apr 25, 2020
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2020-04-27:2274639:Topic:827225
2020-04-27T05:01:06.794Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/business/new-mexico-watching-as-texas-considers-limits-on-oil-production/article_e05dd462-83f7-11ea-8cee-d362092f912d.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/business/new-mexico-watching-as-texas-considers-limits-on-oil-production/article_e05dd462-83f7-11ea-8cee-d362092f912d.html</a></p>
<p>"As oil prices have plummeted to levels never before seen, a rift has opened among the…</p>
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/business/new-mexico-watching-as-texas-considers-limits-on-oil-production/article_e05dd462-83f7-11ea-8cee-d362092f912d.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/business/new-mexico-watching-as-texas-considers-limits-on-oil-production/article_e05dd462-83f7-11ea-8cee-d362092f912d.html</a></p>
<p>"As oil prices have plummeted to levels never before seen, a rift has opened among the companies that extract crude.</p>
<div class="subscriber-preview"><p>Some of them say state regulators should force producers to pump less in the hopes such regulation will raise prices.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-preview"><p>Others say no, just let the market do its job.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>While Texas, an oil-producing behemoth, is weighing the controversial idea of imposing limits, New Mexico, now an oil powerhouse in its own right, has largely stayed out of that debate.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>Depending where oil prices go and what other states decide to do, there may come a point when the state needs to take a position. But key state officials disagree on where New Mexico should go.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>The issue has come to the fore as the COVID-19 crisis — paired with an international price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia — triggered a precipitous decline. Stay-at-home orders that keep Americans from traveling have drained demand for products like gasoline and jet fuel.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>Yet oil producers continued to pump through the spring, leading to a massive oversupply — and an unprecedented crash. Early last week, that glut of crude caused oil futures to fall into negative territory for the first time ever, and despite somewhat of a recovery since then, prices remain far below profitable levels for U.S. companies.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>The decline also means New Mexico oil revenue has become peanuts compared to the hefty sums the state was taking in during the boom. One key legislator has projected oil and tax revenue will fall short of projections by as much as $2 billion for next fiscal year.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>Though global oil producers agreed to a historic production cut earlier this month, the question emerged whether oil-producing states in the U.S. should also mandate cuts to drive prices higher.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>So far, the State Land Office has issued an emergency rule allowing oil and gas companies to voluntarily shut in, or close, their wells without penalty, and regulators said many companies are doing so because they can’t ship their oil anywhere.</p>
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<div class="subscriber-only"><p>Yet Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard suggested the state should go even further."</p>
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Expert Dan Fine discusses future of oil, natural gas amid low prices and the coronavirus
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2020-04-07:2274639:Topic:825994
2020-04-07T00:17:16.062Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/local/2020/04/03/energy-researcher-presents-grim-outlook-oil-industry-amid-coronavirus/5115776002/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The complete article is here</a></p>
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<div class="asset-metabar"><span class="asset-metabar-author asset-metabar-item">Hannah Grover, Farmington Daily Times</span><span class="asset-metabar-time asset-metabar-item nobyline">Published 7:00 a.m. MT April 3,…</span></div>
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/local/2020/04/03/energy-researcher-presents-grim-outlook-oil-industry-amid-coronavirus/5115776002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The complete article is here</a></p>
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<div class="asset-metabar"><span class="asset-metabar-author asset-metabar-item">Hannah Grover, Farmington Daily Times</span><span class="asset-metabar-time asset-metabar-item nobyline">Published 7:00 a.m. MT April 3, 2020</span></div>
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<div id="module-position-SmpMgXIBI_c" class="story-asset image-asset"><img src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2019/12/24/PNM7/e7356e4b-65a2-464b-b72f-405eb7fbfe34-oil_well1_September_2012.jpg?width=540&height=&fit=bounds&auto=webp" alt="A pump jack is seen in September 2012 off Road 6480 during sunset." width="540"/><span class="mycapture-btn-wrap"><span class="mycapture-non-priority-horizontal-image mycapture-btn-with-text js-mycapture-btn js-mycapture-photo-asset">Buy Photo</span></span><p>A pump jack is seen in September 2012 off Road 6480 during sunset. <span class="credit">(Photo: Augusta Liddic/The Daily Times)</span></p>
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<p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">AZTEC — Two tweets sent by President Donald Trump on the morning of April 2 spurred optimism for an oil industry hit hard by a flood of oil from Saudi Arabia and Russia, driving down the price.</p>
<p class="speakable-p-2 p-text">But Dan Fine, an energy researcher and associate director of the New Mexico Center for Energy Policy at New Mexico Tech, said he is skeptical that the president has a deal.</p>
<p class="p-text">Four Corners Economic Development hosted a webinar April 2 during which Fine provided updates on current industry conditions and forecasts.</p>
<p class="p-text"><span class="exclude-from-newsgate"><strong>Read more:</strong> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/news/local/2020/04/01/prc-zoom-meeting-san-juan-generating-station-disrupted-shut-down/5104368002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PRC unanimously approves PNM ending operations of San Juan following meeting interruption</a></span></p>
<p class="p-text">Trump tweeted that he has spoken to the crown prince of Saudi Arabia as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin and expects those two countries will decrease oil output by 10 million barrels. His second tweet stated that the two countries could decrease output by 15 million barrels.</p>
<p class="p-text">These Tweets come after oil prices fell by two-thirds in the first three months of the year.</p>
<div id="module-position-SmpMgXIol94" class="story-asset image-asset"><img src="https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2020/04/02/PNM7/02c00363-b78d-4286-8db6-b2735abd095d-Trump_Tweet_one.JPG?width=540&height=&fit=bounds&auto=webp" alt="President Donald Trump expressed hopes that Saudi Arabia and Russia may reduce oil production, which would help the industry." width="540"/><p>President Donald Trump expressed hopes that Saudi Arabia and Russia may reduce oil production, which would help the industry. <span class="credit">(Photo: Twitter screengrab)</span></p>
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<p class="p-text">Fine said Russia, which has been frustrated by some of the U.S. foreign policies including moves to sell oil to Belarus, is prepared to go six months to a year at the current low prices.</p>
<p class="p-text">And Saudi Arabia previously tried a similar tactic of flooding the market with oil in 2014. </p>
<p class="p-text">“This is a second chance for them,” he said. “They’re not going to easily give this up.”</p>
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Major slowdown expected in U.S. shale oil production BY KEVIN ROBINSON-AVILA / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER Wednesday, December 11th, 2019
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2019-12-13:2274639:Topic:820132
2019-12-13T19:55:49.186Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p><a href="https://www.abqjournal.com/1400398/major-slowdown-expected-in-us-shale-oil-production.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.abqjournal.com/1400398/major-slowdown-expected-in-us-shale-oil-production.html</a></p>
<p>"<strong>Last in a five-part series:</strong> <a href="https://abqjournal.com/boom" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Behind the Boom</a></p>
<p><i>Copyright © 2019 Albuquerque Journal</i></p>
<p>The shale-oil tsunami that has flooded New Mexico with a wave of…</p>
<p><a href="https://www.abqjournal.com/1400398/major-slowdown-expected-in-us-shale-oil-production.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.abqjournal.com/1400398/major-slowdown-expected-in-us-shale-oil-production.html</a></p>
<p>"<strong>Last in a five-part series:</strong> <a href="https://abqjournal.com/boom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Behind the Boom</a></p>
<p><i>Copyright © 2019 Albuquerque Journal</i></p>
<p>The shale-oil tsunami that has flooded New Mexico with a wave of petro dollars in recent years may be receding somewhat as U.S. production faces its first significant decline since the gushers began nearly eight years ago.Signs of trouble are showing up in major basins around the country, with a significant drop in drilling rig activity and sluggish growth this year compared with the spectacular bursts of production in recent years that has transformed the U.S. into the world’s No. 1 oil producer.</p>
<div class="p402_hide story-ad-wrap dfp-ad ad advertisement"><p>A new report released in November by global research and consulting firm IHS Markit says the U.S. is headed for a “major slowdown,” reflecting today’s moderate oil prices, investor reluctance to continue pumping huge sums into companies that have shown only modest returns on capital, and significant productivity declines in shale-oil fields.</p>
<p>That poses substantial challenges going forward.</p>
<p>But a prolonged bust is unlikely, and New Mexico may be less affected than other places. That’s because the Permian Basin in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico remains at the forefront of the shale revolution, thanks to its rich resources, low production costs and the huge gushers that flow from wells drilled there.</p>
<p>As a result, New Mexico is well-positioned to navigate through the current headwinds, said Raoul LeBlanc, IHS Markit’s vice president for North American unconventionals.</p>
<p>“The Permian has an inventory of highly productive wells yet to be drilled that will last many years,” LeBlanc told the Journal. “New Mexico is in a really good spot. It’s proven extremely productive compared with anywhere else.”</p>
<p>Many companies are cutting back on investments in less lucrative zones to refocus on their most productive assets. That bodes well for New Mexico’s side of the Permian, where operators can still tap into rich, productive pools of hydrocarbons at lower cost than in other places."</p>
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Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico (Heritage Foundation Backgrounder)
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2019-07-04:2274639:Topic:804317
2019-07-04T00:31:33.007Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<h1>Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico</h1>
<p>The full white paper is here-> <a href="https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/increasing-natural-gas-trade-between-the-us-and-mexico" rel="external nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/increasing-natural-gas-trade-between-the-us-and-mexico</a></p>
<div>July 1, 2019<span> </span><span> </span><span>22 min read</span><span> …</span></div>
<h1>Increasing Natural Gas Trade Between the U.S and Mexico</h1>
<p>The full white paper is here-> <a href="https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/increasing-natural-gas-trade-between-the-us-and-mexico" rel="external nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://www.heritage.org/trade/report/increasing-natural-gas-trade-between-the-us-and-mexico</a></p>
<div>July 1, 2019<span> </span><span> </span><span>22 min read</span><span> </span><a href="https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2019-07/BG3419.pdf" rel="external nofollow noopener" title="Download Printable Report" target="_blank">Download Report</a></div>
<div><div><div><p><span>Authors:</span><span>Daniel Fine</span><span> </span>and<span> </span><a href="https://www.heritage.org/staff/nicolas-loris" rel="external nofollow noopener" target="_blank"><span>Nicolas Loris</span></a></p>
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<div><p><span> </span>SUMMARY</p>
<div>Increased energy trade has important economic and strategic significance for the United States and Mexico. Mexico’s energy-market reforms that opened access and improved natural gas trade between American producers and Mexican consumers have been beneficial for citizens in both countries. President López Obrador’s desire to return to energy nationalism threatens those gains. Both the U.S. and Mexico should commit to policies and regulations that continue to open access to markets, improve transparency, and expand opportunities for investment. Doing so will benefit both Americans and Mexicans.</div>
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Analysis: Oil market glut will lead to declining prices through 2020 by Dr. Daniel Fine
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2019-05-26:2274639:Topic:800169
2019-05-26T01:36:26.961Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
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<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/05/24/analysis-oil-market-glut-lead-declining-prices-through-2020/3760213002/" rel="noopener" target="_blank"> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/05/24/analysis-oil-market-glut-lead-declining-prices-through-2020/3760213002/ </a>Use link for complete article</p>
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<p>"With the OPEC-Russia meeting ahead, the price of oil is at a crossroad. …</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/05/24/analysis-oil-market-glut-lead-declining-prices-through-2020/3760213002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/05/24/analysis-oil-market-glut-lead-declining-prices-through-2020/3760213002/ </a>Use link for complete article</p>
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<p>"With the OPEC-Russia meeting ahead, the price of oil is at a crossroad. </p>
<p class="speakable-p-2 p-text">President Trump wants lower prices for gasoline at the pump and the Democratic Party wants a shortage to lift prices higher. This is the 2020 presidential election, to re-elect Trump or a create a Democratic left-center White House. </p>
<p class="p-text">Is OPEC-Russia ready to sustain output cutbacks for $70 Brent Oil or continue revenue maximum against market share? Curiously, in the conversation at Vienna the Oxy purchase of Anadarko will resonate. Why? Oxy must now increase its export of oil to lower its debt (Warren Buffet and more) and prevent a serious management miscalculation of paying too much for Anadarko. </p>
<p class="p-text">Permian Delaware shale, with new high volume pipelines completed soon, must find expanding import markets of l.5 million barrels of oil per day or the equivalent of OPEC-Russia resuming late 2016 output for export"</p>
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Analysis: Things are flat in the Permian, and there's a push for renewables in Santa Fe by Dr. Daniel Fine
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2019-02-01:2274639:Topic:792568
2019-02-01T15:11:22.893Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/</a></p>
<p>"The Permian-Delaware Basin rig count should start falling as oil operators, large and small, are flat for 2019.…</p>
<p>The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2019/01/27/analysis-things-flat-permian-governor-wants-renewables/2595583002/</a></p>
<p>"The Permian-Delaware Basin rig count should start falling as oil operators, large and small, are flat for 2019.</p>
<p class="speakable-p-2 p-text">Spending has been sharply reduced as supply now dominates the A.I. (Artificial Intelligence) used by many commodity traders in oil. </p>
<p class="p-text">The large or integrated oil companies have all the rigs of 2018 in place for 2019. This would make October the price peak of the latest boom or recovery in oil. Permian-Delaware Basin production would decline at least 500,000 barrels in 2019 to offset the supply glut and stabilize at $50 per barrel.</p>
<p class="p-text">OPEC members, notably Saudi Arabia, need a fiscal price of oil of $85 per barrel to pay for government and social spending. But at $60 per barrel, cash flow will not make it.</p>
<p class="p-text">Its new public relations-lobbying in the U.S will require Sovereign Wealth Fund borrowing at market rates, which will be higher mainly because of U.S Senate sanctions over the murder of a Saudi journalist writing for the Washington Post. </p>
<div class="partner-placement partner-spike ad-gray-border ad-notice ad-paramount-inline partner-placement-visible" id="ad-position-54"><div class="ad-slot" id="ad-slot-7103-nm-farmington-C1279-native-article_link-money-6"><div id="google_ads_iframe_7103/nm-farmington-C1279/native-article_link/money_0__container__">This writer forecast a 2019 $50 per barrel average price of oil when prices fell to $43.00 last month. </div>
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<p class="p-text">At the same time, many small and independent producers have break-even at $50 with high-interest debt!</p>
<p class="p-text">There are Chapter 11 bankruptcies valued at $140 billion from the Panhandle in Texas to the San Juan Basin that resulted from the OPEC -Saudi Arabian price and market share war of 2014-2016 against Southwestern small/independent shale and tight sands producers who now want reparations or damages."</p>
Reactions to Delaware Basin news shows misunderstanding of petroleum economics (or the end of OPEC)
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2018-12-20:2274639:Topic:791015
2018-12-20T21:33:51.981Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/</a></p>
<p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">"News of the size of oil reserves in the…</p>
<p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">The full article is here-> <a href="https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">https://www.daily-times.com/story/money/industries/oil-gas/2018/12/18/delaware-basin-news-reveals-public-misunderstanding-oil-industry-economics/2282224002/</a></p>
<p class="speakable-p-1 p-text">"News of the size of oil reserves in the Delaware Basin (New Mexico’s share of the Permian) while OPEC was deciding how many barrels it will cut from the world market to lift prices caused epic confusion – and revelations of how little “authorities” and the media understand petroleum economics.</p>
<p class="speakable-p-2 p-text">The New Mexico media, which relies mainly on interviews with petroleum industry spokespersons, got it wrong. </p>
<p class="p-text">Government numbers came out as 46 billion barrels (Permian total) with 26 in New Mexico. This means nothing but oil in good rock along with technical recovery as an estimate. Some excited “authorities,” who should know better, exclaimed that there was more.</p>
<p class="p-text">However, the estimate is based on the application of technical means to recover the oil. The reserves of real oil depend on ultimate economic recovery. This means technical based on geology, plus economics. A high price will recover the billions of barrels while a low price will not.</p>
<p class="p-text">In short, the numbers reflect the rocks without economics. </p>
<p class="p-text">The Delaware reserves plus the Texas Permian are now there to expand supply over 12 million b/d in the United States.</p>
<div class="partner-placement partner-spike ad-gray-border ad-notice ad-paramount-inline partner-placement-visible" id="ad-position-58"><div class="ad-slot" id="ad-slot-7103-nm-farmington-C1279-native-article_link-money-4"><div id="google_ads_iframe_7103/nm-farmington-C1279/native-article_link/money_0__container__">This writer has warned that world oil demand is sluggish and imprecise with only references to legacy guesswork that the developing world plus China demand will support prices long term or forever. Yet, world oil consumption has increased only 5 percent in the last 10 years. </div>
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<p class="p-text">OPEC, with Saudi Arabia as its leader, has expired as the world administrator of the price of crude oil. At its December meeting in Austria, Qatar quit after nearly 70 years and announced concentration in LNG production and world export as the existing market leader.</p>
<p class="p-text">OPEC emerged with a serious factional split between OPEC original and OPEC with Russia. There would have been no agreement without Russia and its old Russian Federation members as producers. Moscow is the new world oil price-setter indirectly while OPEC Original becomes a collaborator in cartel for now. Simply put, Saudi Arabia no longer is the “residual supplier” alone.</p>
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<p class="p-text">The production roll-back of 1.2 barrels per day by both “OPEC” is not enough for “balance” supply and demand for world crude oil. It is being tested daily by commodity traders. In a briefing to New Mexico independent and small producers before the meeting in Austria, this writer warned that 1.7 million b/d was needed for balancing stabilization. Without that size of a production and export reduction, the average price of WTI oil in 2019 will average $50 per barrel."</p>
Dr. Daniel Fine: Trump and oil in trade geopolitics
tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2018-09-03:2274639:Topic:785539
2018-09-03T13:47:45.898Z
Bob Perkins
https://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/BobPerkins
<p>“Unlike 1973, and its oil embargo against the United States, there is no supply threat from the Middle East. Consequently, only a demand unknown moves the price of crude oil. Permian/Delaware has displaced the Middle East as a source and even Mexico imports U.S. production.</p>
<p>This has caused euphoria in Santa Fe among lobbyists who prepare for a new Governor from the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>She will have to decide that the rhetoric of renewable energy is no match for her budget bounty…</p>
<p>“Unlike 1973, and its oil embargo against the United States, there is no supply threat from the Middle East. Consequently, only a demand unknown moves the price of crude oil. Permian/Delaware has displaced the Middle East as a source and even Mexico imports U.S. production.</p>
<p>This has caused euphoria in Santa Fe among lobbyists who prepare for a new Governor from the Democratic Party.</p>
<p>She will have to decide that the rhetoric of renewable energy is no match for her budget bounty made up of revenue flows from Lea and Eddy Counties. Token demonstrations for higher taxes from oil and gas producers no doubt will occur, but in Santa Fe only the price of oil is the threat that can take the punch off the table. </p>
<p>And here the connected experts publicly answer reporters that the Permian is an exceptionalism in oil and gas: it will never become a basin in a downturn. </p>
<div><p>However, all the charts and slides converge on upward supply without much on demand to offset the upward slope. It is almost impolite to ask where is the market for the massive supply of oil now and in the near-term future? What about demand for oil?</p>
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<p>China? Not quite as electric cars – yes, Tesla or Chinese versions appear as I-Phone-like technology against the combustion engine.</p>
<p>California, with 40 million people and seven states following its waiver, can set miles per gallon requirements on engines towards zero emissions.</p>
<p>This is the meaning of President Trump’s policy to force California back into the Union where Washington decides on what the combustion engine can and will do.”</p>