CNX stock price has declined this week following the 1Q report. How far down will it go? What`s next for them? What are they doing right or wrong?
They 'promise' a lot of free cash next year . "IF" they keep their promise new investors will be very happy ....... Note 'promise' in quotes ...
Will investor`s recognize the transition period needed to move from the old way of doing business to the new "free cash flow" way now? Who doesn`t have problems now? In a notice the other day CNX announced they have a $2.1 million credit line, if I understand the notice correctly?
the stock market values assets in irrational ways. look at tech. valuations which can be very high with companys showing no profits for years. the mean is the average of extremes. many e&p's are like million dollar mansions on sale for ten thousand dollars. huge amounts of private equity and venture capital sits like a cat ready to pounce. deals like Encino's blue light special via CHK's loss are lining up like a perfect storm. some have tremendous intrinsic value relative to their current stock price. the action in Montage is institutional.
What will cause those "cats" to pounce? What about E&P companies that will attract their money? Doesn`t leased acres, well pads, pipelines, compressor stations and firm transportation contracts mean anything to investors? Is short term growth the only factor they look at? Are local E&P companies like CNX, H&H, Apex and others at a disadvantage over more global companies like Chevron, Exxon, Shell, Range and others?
The market is tired of broken promises ... Todays Energy Investors are demanding an actual profit ...... Those with Free Cash Flow win those who make excuses suffer...........
AR seems to be the king of broken promises .........RRC blew it with that LA purchase , until now CNX has outspent ..... EQT is a mess , and SWN just can;t compete ........
Things might change but today its the way it is .............
it has always been hard to spot trends when the "seeds" are planted. we've been seeing consolidation for quite awhile now which reprices companys entry points. tens of billions have been burned allowing the next operator to come in at lower prices including as you mention infrastructure,production income and HBP acreage at a much lower price than some companys paid during the boom runup years. looking back it seems each decade had a trend with enourmous energy implications i and others failed to grasp at the time. the 1970's monetary effect with gasoline lines were only a symptom ushering in middle eastern nationaliztion of the oil industry creating all kinds of global energy change. this even planted the seeds of Islamic terror. the 1980's for me was the decade of digitization. we converted everything from analog to digital [computers]. instrument and controls, administration, lockout tagout, etc. the 1990's was all about dealing with market deregulation on one hand and enviro. regulation on the other. then the big Kahuna came along in the 2000's. shale gas and oil cannot in any way be underestimated regarding the global impact. exponential game changer. a whole new book is being written and where it goes is unpredicable. we are in the biggest global energy war of all time, against foreign producers and domestic Socialist/Marxist forces. by using false Enviro. attacks on U.S. energy production, they hope to regain their own market share. a large segment of our population is buying in to the false theory that a reversal in energy density model, would result in higher standards of living. wood and dung are lowest on the scale, nuclear highest. renewables are at the low end. compare living standards with low end energy density with high end. disease,starvation, violence,etc. the big trend i see right now are the "forces" desperately trying to drive our country backwards on the energy density scale. as Earl Pitts likes to say " WAKE UP AMERICA"!
Nice summary, OT.
The latest roadblock being advanced by the enviros and Climate Change minions is less about energy density and more to do with Socialism and the advancement, to the detriment of fossil fuels, of low density renewables.
I can't wrap my head around the mindset of the CO2 crazed crowd and their total unwillingness to consider nuclear power for electrification, which is in the range of 25-30% of energy consumed in the USA.
Fossil fuels for heavy industry and travel of all types has NO viable alternative, regardless of what they claim.
I agree....Wake Up America....don't let this happen here. We have already done our part, reducing CO2 contribution by way of NG power generation....and China and India laugh at us as they continue to up their emissions by building many coal plants, letting us shoot ourselves in the foot with this nonsense.
Wake up indeed....let us not ever agree to regress to Socialism over some small and adaptable problem like CO2.
each U.S. citizen's energy footprint from birth to death is quantified on the energy density scale as follows. each person would require a wood pile that fills an entire sports stadium to overflowing capacity, in multiples. at the other end of scale, just one mason jar of nuclear fuel would meet the same requirement. power potential in = power out = higher standards of living.
Hi Old Timer... Your sentence, "Each person would require a woodpile that fills an entire sports stadium to over flowing capacity...….", sparked my long term memory. Wood has been the fuel that nearly everyone I grew up with from next door families, (84 years ago), to grandparents and folks even today still use as a main heating source. Yes and even the Painter family still today burn wood to heat their homes! One friend converted their home to electric heating when the nuclear power became the rage. It was touted that power would be so inexpensive back then that it would be foolish to not use electricity to heat your home. Guess what? They nearly froze! A beautiful fireplace was built to supplement their heat. But was not very efficient.
Visiting with one of my friends about burning wood especially early winter mornings, he said, "Us kids would all huddle around the stove...… Mainly to get the stove warm!"
I recall those days myself!
I still burn wood, but have converted to wood pellets. My bones protest mightily against working in the woodpile anymore. The mind is willing but not the flesh!
the wood pile example highlights an individuals share of the amount needed for ALL energy used by a society. heating the cities,generating all electricity,industrial demands like steel making etc. Europe was deforested before coal was used. the real point is if politicians mandate a power density reversal to renewables, it would require a land mass area larger than California,and increasing each year. it would be like passing a law requiring freight trains be pulled by a VW bug. huge portion of our population believes that's possible. the laws of physics say otherwise.
An elderly gentleman and I was discussing the problem of air pollution one day many years ago. He scoffed at the idea there was, or would be any problem with any kind of pollution. He said as he pointed upward, "There is an awful lot of room for any chance of serious problem up in the air!"
He lived in an area that was pretty much free of any kind smoke or industrial activity. And he had never been to any large city as far as I knew. No use to describe the areas downwind of an oil refinery or a cement manufacturing plant right next to Ft Buchanan where I was stationed. My work place at that Military was located where I sometimes had to drive thru to reach my work area.
An then there is the huge trash dump in the swampy area of New Jersey. I drove truck from the small animal meat terminal in NYC to a Pharmicuetical Research establishment, near Hanover, New Jersey. Discovering a short cut, I found myself wheeling along a huge swampy area that was being used a gigantic pile. Everything you could think of was seen to be floating around, Old oil and paint drums, Discarded trucks and other vehicles, All kinds of packing boxes, You name it, it could be found there! Huge dump trucks lined up waiting to climb to the top of that pile to unload!
If I had only had a camera to photograph these places or taken this elderly man with me, I wonder what he would say?