Freestar - what would you consider an minimum volume per day to be economically feasible? What do you think is going on at the Marchand well? XTO has several more Utica well permits at the Winslow pad.
according to the well report i'm looking at Marchand 3MHSUT has 103 daily av. of only 4732mcf. the peak was around low 5000's. upstate utica's seem to come in 15000-20000. i could be missing something but Indiana co. looks like the eastern edge of M-U
Which county will see drilling activity for either Marcellus & Utica gas begin sooner, Armstrong or Indiana County, and why? What will drive that activity? Pipelines, better gas prospects or what?
WOW. well a real quick look. i would say production anywhere would be #1. between both cos. i can't find big numbers. don't spot any Utica tests but real quick look so i may miss it. both cos. had early Marcellus with low results. more recent wells say 2015 on by same operators show better results i believe due to newer well completion designs so there is that. Armstrong looks like MDS, Snyder Bros.,EQT,XTO. it would make sense to me that western portions are closer to M-U play. it is a profitability decision by companys so who can say for sure. someday even marginal areas will be produced but compare say Marcellus production in Susquehanna co. as a benchmark and Utica hotspots to the significantly lower producing areas i would think under lower NG pricing these would be primary. as far as Arm. and Ind. i can't see much difference between the two so it may be an individual company decision that determines activity more than anything else. just my sense. if anyone has input regarding that area i am interested as well.
Thanks Old Timer, I think both counties were drilled early on for MS and more recently for Utica in Indiana County. I agree there have been changes in newer completion designs and most importantly, I think, longer laterals. Most of those early wells were in 3-4,000' lateral lengths. More recent ones have been drilled to 6-8,000'. That difference in lateral length alone would impact the published production reports. I don`t think these two counties will ever approach the production results from SW PA & NE PA. I also think infrastructure is still an issue in these two counties. Armstrong seems to have more pipelines thanks to EQT. Following the DTI pipeline across Jefferson & Armstrong counties provides the most immediate take-away capacity option. Indiana is limited, particularly in the central area. Is this going to be a chicken & egg situation? Will drilling or new pipelines have to happen first?
i think production first then pipelines. pipelines make money on capacity and might want to see availability. i think the production improvements are due to completions singularly. first gen. completions left the shale looking like a windshield with a few large cracks that you could see around. the goal today is for the windshield to look like a sledge hammer smashed it. lots of tiny spider web cracks everywhere held open by 3 times more sand. the lateral length is actually a financial equation. longer gives higher financial returns but production per foot remains consistent. the latest dual string, heavy over light mud drilling tech. allows for routine 20000' extended reach laterals to be drilled. the plan here is for 87 20000 footers @ 1200' spacing. while based on a financial decision this is the only way it can be done do to nonsurface use of NG storage field. the takeaway for everyone is constant advancements in tech. will improve all our developement possiblities no matter where.
NW. Tioga co. Pa. economics for sure are the driver. i believe as time goes and the core areas are played out the less productive will be drilled out of necessity. that pattern in NG has precedent when conventional drilled the shallowest first then went deeper over the decades until Appalacia basically played out until shale gas. the biggest difference i see now is the huge fuel shift to NG for elect. and LNG export with corresponding capital flows locking our energy complex into NG. this is as historic as when mankind went from wood to coal, ushering in the industrial revolution. if someone would have told me as a young engineer in the energy field forty years ago this is your future, i would have laughed them out of the room. technology will allow for higher total recoverys in lower GIP areas because it will HAVE to.