looks like an entire revisit of the Flat Castle plan in NC Tioga co. Pa. the long lateral plan is too much for a new conservative management team and a company that has lost so many key employees that showed cutting edge technical skills under Ben Hulberts leadership. we all owe the old Eclipse a nod for bringing the whole e&p industry an incremental step forward. Montage is already setting up to be just another follower. sad day for technical risk taking and very cool engineering challenges.

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Water is a big issue everywhere ...I've invested in  Public Companies that are building water facilities in the Delaware Basin ....

  A few year back a fellow  tried to get me to invest in a water recycle plant in your backyard .... Their Company was based north of you in NY ........ He implied they had a handshake with Shell , I never followed up and sometimes wonder if the plant was built ....... 

Montage reports their Painter 2H well. 145day av. 23084mcf. 3.4mill. total production, with flat decline rate. 2-3 months until boundary flow allows accurate EUR calc. but is certainly exceeding expectations. Shell reports Kinnan to the east and JKLM reports Headwaters west. neither have come on like P2H. this should be positive for attracting a working partnership in the Flat Castle with Montage.

That Painter well  is indeed competitive , any idea the length of the well  ........ Do you have those Shell and JKLM numbers ? Thanks in advance 

P2H approx. 14000. JKLM brings wells on slowly but 10-12 at best. Shell Kinnan is early but just slightly higher. thing is with Kinnan there has been some talk of what effect delayed flowback may have had. the very unfortunate fatality of Deep Well Services employee during workover put a hold on operations. whether hydration will have an affect long term is unknown. i think there was an expectation the results would have been higher based on nearby past performance.

Seems like SW PA EUR's are in the 2 to 2.5 BCF range while COG EURS are in the 4 to 4.5 BCF range ... SW PA Utica is expensive and to date doesn't seem as profitable as the Marcellus despite some monster IP's . 

 I want to own some COG but not at these prices ,I may have missed a recent opportunity ....... 

a finer point to consider. NCPA Utica contains 27% more gas in place [GIP[, than Ohio's Utica dry gas. the difference is Ohio's recovery rate is 48%, whereas NCPA is only 29%. the best EUR rate in NCPA are two Shell pads @ 2.8 Bcf/1000ft., a 40% recovery factor. that's an 8% improvement over average recoverys here. bottom line is as technology closes the recovery rate factor in NCPA it will as Reinhart stated in the conference call,"compete with Ohio for capex spending". COG has an awesome Marcellus position for sure but the entire NG complex needs alot more than they can produce. also the higher Shell results were done using older completion designs. i said early on i wouldn't be surprised to see a 3.0 Utica here soon. 

Seems like EUR's are increasing across the entire Country , although there is some who are questioning the EURs in the Permian ......

 I own a  small piece of a gasser that works WV / Tenn / Kentucky , their shallow gas decline rates are very reasonable .........

Montage analyst presentation is on their website under investor section , events and presentations. details regarding where they're going etc. webcast also. the Painter 2H well is explained in some detail. they connected both Utica layers in fracturing process. facsinating techno stuff done on this well throughout process.

notice carefully the graph on page 6, comparing IRR's of lateral length reductions. after 24mos. a crossover occurs making IRR's of shorter laterals less attractive. stock investors don't care about increased well pad buildouts and all the duplicative activity associated with future costs, that longer laterals would have already accomplished. that's the reason for cycle time reduction, to get cash in the door faster. stock investors are impatient. long term impact is higher land use , more traffic and community road use etc. 2-3 yrs. from now Montage will be increasing lateral lengths again.

I will try to get to Montage tonight .... I get to hang with some 'big' Wall Street 'Muckity Mucks " who are true experts in the Energy Patch and have started several NYSE listed  energy outfits ... 

 Their mantra currently is Cash Flow , Cash Flow , Cash Flow ...... Funding for those without Cash Flow visibility has gotten tough , and share prices have suffered   ........

 

Took a look at Montage ... They list several different plays, most with EUR's per 1,000 foot below 2 BCF ... v

 Tioga comes in at 2 bcf per 1,000 ......

 My opinion is that a lot of their land is less than tier 1 ... 

 I will look for more outfits that I may find more compelling ..............

 But ' hey you never know " 

right on regarding cash flow. better recheck your NG numbers on their acreage.

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