The reality of $100 per barrel WTI returning - GoMarcellusShale.com2024-03-29T07:39:56Zhttps://gomarcellusshale.com/forum/topics/the-reality-of-100-per-barrel-wti-returning?xg_source=activity&feed=yes&xn_auth=noI believe it will be a longe…tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2018-10-05:2274639:Comment:7870602018-10-05T08:41:33.560ZDavid Allen Lillyhttps://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/DavidAllenLilly
<p>I believe it will be a longer expansion cycle due to the anemic "recovery" we saw during the obama years. Economic cycles are a reality of life but politics and politicians can and do get in the way.</p>
<p>I am writing more about the oil market than economics although you cannot separate the two. The oil market caved in upon itself due to rampant, undisciplined over production causing an over supply and crashing prices. OPEC, and especially the Saudis very stupidly believed they could…</p>
<p>I believe it will be a longer expansion cycle due to the anemic "recovery" we saw during the obama years. Economic cycles are a reality of life but politics and politicians can and do get in the way.</p>
<p>I am writing more about the oil market than economics although you cannot separate the two. The oil market caved in upon itself due to rampant, undisciplined over production causing an over supply and crashing prices. OPEC, and especially the Saudis very stupidly believed they could crush the American shale companies with artificially low prices and lost "big league".</p>
<p>What they succeeded in doing was leaning out American shale and losing much of their leverage as the worlds swing producer. The article I linked talks about the Saudis now being unable to pump enough extra oil to keep prices from rising to the $100 per barrel range, especially with new Iranian oil sanctions hitting tight supply.</p>
<p>I believe this was more detrimental to oil pricing than the actual economics, it seems that manufactured dynamics injected into a market or an economy generally worsen conditions more so than the natural cycles of these things.</p>
<p>My opinions are not cut and paste, there were many "experts" who said cheap oil was here to stay. I didn't believe it and still see it rising. Oil has never gone down in price without recovering, all that I believed was necessary was an economic catalyst to drive prices upward. The obama "recovery", such as it was, was a weak, shallow and over blown recovery that took place minus real, historical growth in GDP. I felt certain that President Trump would get us moving in a more historical recovery with 3% growth driving an economy that would consume much more energy which would drive pricing and I still see that upside.</p>
<p>You might be able to glean that I am not an obama fan, and you would be correct. The guy was a joke and the Trump economy is showing that obama only looks good when compared to the final two pathetic years of the sad, weak boosh administration. It is hard to argue that the Trump economy isn't much stronger. I don't see the next recession as being right around the corner, when the trade issues with China are solved (as they surely will be) there will surely be another uptick that will add some duration to the current cycle.</p> The next recession is a given…tag:gomarcellusshale.com,2018-10-04:2274639:Comment:7868792018-10-04T13:32:47.454ZDanhttps://gomarcellusshale.com/profile/Dang
The next recession is a given. The question is how long will we have growth until it happens and are we building our countries foundation stronger so it doesn’t crumble as much when the next one hits. When markets crash and folks say the money disappeared from the economy it didn’t disappear, it went into someone’s pocket. Hopefully the next downturn doesn’t swing as low.
The next recession is a given. The question is how long will we have growth until it happens and are we building our countries foundation stronger so it doesn’t crumble as much when the next one hits. When markets crash and folks say the money disappeared from the economy it didn’t disappear, it went into someone’s pocket. Hopefully the next downturn doesn’t swing as low.