Using Landex we are starting to map un-renewed leases. The theme is near any lease not renewed suggests the lessor (gasco) doesn't like the geology. Some confirmation comes when non renewed are in close proximity and in areas not seeing fresh permitting or drilling activity.

This is an inexact science but we believe still very useful in a general way.

Sadly, early on some of the academic geologists, the media and others posted / printed broad Marcellus coverage maps, failing to disclose all Marcellus won't be gas prospective. If you speak to a serious geologist they will say perhaps 10-12 million acres of the 40 million plus maybe have commercial gas value. Others think only 6-8 million are truly prospective. Decades ahead if the risher is used up and the lessor can compete vs the rest of the country, a higher price platitude might expand the footprint, but that is a long shot.

In general, in Bradford, there seems to be a triangle coming south from the border a township or two where interest has died. Also west of there, a section seems dead before rising to prospective in the far NW.

 

Others with observations?

And if there are others here interested and whom would like to share notes, please reply here.

Thanks, Melissa

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Related, Towanda Township production as reported by the DEP looks slack compared to south east of there.

A well or two would be one thing, but this looks relatively consistent.  Anyone with comments?

A consistency has been west central Bradford, Troy +, has less gas than south east Bradford or "Cabot Country" further east.

You might find this map interesting.... the darker red the better the shale value....   The top producing well in the state for the 1st 6 months of 2012 is the Johnston 1H drilled by Citris Energy, Located in meshoppen pa, wyoming county.   It produced about 4.5 Billion cubic ft for 169 days of production, or about 27 million cubic feet per day for 6 months...

As leases come up for renewal and/or expiration, the tale is told. By now most gascos know what they are interested in and where they are not.

 

If you really want to know, you need to track LANDEX for extentions and rleases.. Obviously extensions inthat area is good and releases, not,,, good.

 

Though a blanket formation, characteristics vary gradually and without the right mix, there isn’t commercially recoverable gas.

 

No surprise to those with baseline info, Oakland Township, Susquehanna PA is seeing 5+ 5yr leases not being offered a renewal.

 

Sadly, there is too much misinformation, people need to know it is odds by area. Too many are counting on this and if they find out they are not Terry Twp Bradford, it is going to be a mess.

 

Land specs in New York are all over the ople and with limited prospects of but a few % of the land, masses of $$ are going to be lost IOP.

 

In our opinion as well, land at 5k post no gas, I bet will be 2k. NY is high tax, low economic activity, low income. Recreation is near the only attraction to land in the southern tier.

Whatever happened to the Orwell/Pike development area that they were supposedly so excited about 2 years ago...I am in the middle of a declared unit but remane unleased...they claim the unit is not on any drilling schedules through 2014...I guess the only salvation would be a very harsh winter in the northeast causing the gas price to go over $4.00

I took a look at your unit and I would be surprised if anyone came knocking prior to 2014.. A couple factors contibute to that. First, Talisman bought out Fortuna and has a lot of expensive( $5500/acre) acreage to delineate before the Friendsville Leases expires in 2014... Talisman has all the Acreage around your property so your leverage is minimal... And I have heard whispers of compression being needed in the Orwell area with some of the wells... That being said I would wait until approached and not expect a high bonus because the can drill many wells in your unit with or without your property. With 1000ft well spacing your property would have to be more than 30 acres to even really affect the plans for the unit...but it still is to Talismans advantage and convenience to have your property leased prior to drilling the Unit, I would try for a 25-30 gross royalty % and a non surface agreement if possible.

Yeah I get the feeling that 2014 maybe the year...we have 118acres the property actually abutts the location of the pad site...the way it is portrayed on the map is not correct it shows a portion of the property being included in the unit and the balance not included we are on both sides of gorham rd and we go around the ne schools... what is the problem with compression? do you think they would agree to a 25-30% gross royalty?

I have personally witnessed 5750/22% gross royalty in a 4.50/mmcf price environment on a much smaller parcel ( 12 acres ) to drill a unit. I would wait until they have the rig on the site ready to drill to sign a lease...they could possibly just drill south from the pad by you and elect to construct another pad northwest of your property about a mile or so and drill south from that also, but would have to stop prior to your border. Pad cost anywhere from 250,000-400,000 to construct depending on the extent of dirt being excavated, so I would aim just below that point for bonus $, but without you leased they get 0% of the gas under your 118 acres...estimates range from 20-150 bcf in place per square mile.... Or between
$125,000-$937,500 of gas in place per acre.... I would expect this area to be closer to the high side so getting a 25% plus gross royalty should be very achievable....the compression issues I was referring to are most likely one of the companies getting ahead of themselves and fracking a well a year ahead of pipeline being in place to move the gas...the frack has
pretty much closed back up waiting and the pressure is now lower...

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