We are producing way more gas than takeout capicity can handle. I am aware of some recent wells that came on, all 10, 11 12 mmcf/d IP.HUGE. We suspect, much is driven by the need to HBP. Otherwise I assume completions would be way down.
Last week of those unaware, Zone 4 , TGP went to .85 under NYMEX, with NYMEX at 3.60, that is 265 and if you have no deduction protection, ~ 2$ again. The high quality of the rock under us is killing us!
From day one in this, long experienced contacts said don't worry if the gas is there, capacity will be built and it is being built -- higher pressure, additins to capacity etc, but too slow vs production growth. A guess, in less than 3 yrs the NE will be ok, but no fun on the horizon for a min of 1 yr.
I do not have data on the Transco that travels throufh central Lycoming. In teh last 2 yrs, the discounting there has not been as extreme.
Is anyone up on the Marc line, Inergy's line Camptown south through Sullivan to the Transco?
Am pretty sure the N bound portion, from Upper sullicvan to the TGP is operating.
BTW INERGY, NRGY mwerged with a good outfit with more western gathering/storage operations.
Looks like a good fit .They will be able to borrow cheaper, be more flexable in planning new lines.
No one interested in this topic? As of the end of last week, net to Bradford with HHub at 3.60 is
2.10. Similar to last summer timing wise. Plus in SE Bradford alone there are wells coming on every week.
Anyone else ?
I'm sorry, but I'm not positive what the numbers mean in the post?
Hump is just writing about the price royalty owners are receiving for their NG each month.
When he writes 2.10 or 3.60, or whatever, it's just a shorthand way of writing $2.10 and $3.60, dollars and cents in other words. Hump does drop a decimal point once or twice. Maybe that's what was confusing you.
Hump appreciate the input. Thank you.
I'm on a trunk that crosses Bradford County N/S, from NY line all the way down to Lycoming County. It crosses into NY in NW Wells Township, and it crosses into Lycoming County in extreme SW Canton Township. I do not know the name of this trunk, or transport, line, which runs quite close to the Tioga County border, but always in Bradford County Maps I've seen do not indicate a name. It crosses the Tennessee, BTW, in the NW portion of Armenia Township. Do you know the name of this trunk, Hump?; if it even has a name.
Anyway, pricing here is quite decent. For July we were at $4.20 net. Do not know why pricing here is what it is. This might have something to do with the unnamed trunk. Since it runs up into NY, maybe it is offering us access to better pricing up there since no Marcellus NG is being produced up there in NY? I really don't know.
Sorry Hump don't have much info on SE Bradford. It's a long way away from here. They have a really large amount of NG there and give it away sell it very cheaply. Our shale is not that good here. But we are not "giving away" our gas either.
The line you are talking about it labeled "Sunoco Gas Line" on the PDF from the Bradford County site.... you have to enlarge quite a bit to get that to be visible. Some other maps I've seen also show a branch from the PVR line, looks like it hits the TGP somewhere around east end of Granville and runs SW, eventually along the Tioga / Lycoming County line before connecting with PVR. This one does not show on the Bradford County gas line map.
I'm in SW Bradford (Leroy township), part of a unit that just went online. May's production went for $4.19, June for $4.08.
I would argue the "shale is not that good" point, two of the wells in Leroy that just went online in May are over 10 mmcf/day (according to the DEP numbers) for initial production and mine is decent at 4.7 mmcf. A couple of others nearby have been running around 7 mmcf for a year and a half now.
Yes. Sorry. You are correct. SW Bradford is not bad at all. The shale is not as good, though, as you move due north.
Still, I think SE Bradford shale, in general, is best of all.
Frank and Tom R.
We study and research using reported DEP data, + extrapolation of geo trends, plus handicap lo0oking at variables - depth, thickness, gamma ray from legacy wells and try to score areas. Of course all of that may amount to nothing or be misleading but our view FWIW:
The most SE Townships are the most prolific. However the trend seems to extend W SW past Albany into Overton and just above through Monroe. Far SW, Canton, is weaker coming east doesn’t really pick up until you hit Overton. In Granville, home of the French legacy well, drilled in the 70s I think, the formation is much shallower, a characteristic which throughout the county has killed production potential. I thinjk 7 for8 Granville wells are very low producers and see NY PA border wells were the Marcellus bottom is ~4200 ft, 2-3 IPs.
Franklin with a lot of still unleased acreage, SGL, though someone else owns the minerals, appears untested.
Those are our observations, but hardly adamant here, interested in 0other’s views.
MH, I don't disagree with your overall view, the SE area is obviously the most productive. I'm sure you have studied much more information and considered more factors than I have as I look most closely at my immediate surroundings. My point was more that very local conditions can have a substantial impact on productivity. As a good example look at the Brackman and Cranrun wells in Leroy. Brackman has been a very poor producer, IP was 0.38 mmcf/day and has dropped to 0.15 in 18 months. The Cranrun unit borders Brackman on the east, Cranrun 2H runs NNW (about 1/2 mile away from the Brackman path and parallel to it) and had an IP of 3.18 mmcf (10X the Brackman result) and production continues to maintain that 10X spread. They also drilled the 5H leg of Cranrun which runs SSE. This had an IP of 4.94, increased in the second six months to 7.43 and still runs at 6.19. It may not compete with some of the 20+ mmcf results in the SE part of the county but I don't think it deserves to be called "not that good". Even the 2H leg, which comes close to the border of Granville, is not all that bad. Despite the poor results of the north running leg on Brackman, a permit for a south leg was just renewed so it doesn't seem like the drillers consider it a lost cause.
I'm not sure the poor results in Granville really define the scope of shale quality. The wells lie pretty much along the peak of the Towanda Anticline and, according to a geological survey map, very close to a suspected fault line. They were drilled shallow, about 4200', and (I suspect) failed to stay in the shale layer for any great distance unless the horizontal run had a decided downward bias. North of Granville there are also wells with decent, though not outstanding, production. I've also noticed that over time general drilling results have improved. In the 2009 production report, the best well reported was 6.8 mmcf. Perhaps the driller's learning curve will enhance the results in less than stellar quality parts of the county.
Thanks very much, very thoughtful of you. .to share so much. Tells me to do more work.!!
A similar HOT spot Terry twp, there are wells same pad started at7.5-8. one is still doing 7-8 the other 2.5, 24 minths in,
asking geo friends "how coudl that be", gasco error, geology shifts, etc. No conclusions yet.
Note USGS Devonian maturity report of 5 or 7 yrs go has legacy French well near Granville ad the new 2-3 Granville wells i looked at were shallow 4-4.5 ft depth of i am recllig correctly.
I am seeing correeltion of depth vs production, petty definate. Peck Hill vs ay Champlever, straight. How much diff is the what I'/we need to know.