Jonathan, I think my response was mis-directed to the do-not-reply section of this site so I am retransmittting.
I am in the business, but not investd in this play. I believe I am informed enough to get involved now, and may do so in the near future. I am an amatue, but well-informed geologist. I don't want to misrepresent myself as someone trained and degreed in geology....just an interestd observer with a high IQ and a wealth of information to ponder. I am confident in any statement I make, but do not want to portray myself as a petroleum engineer of certified petroleum geologist. That being said, I believe I have a wealth of information regarding this which is not necessarily tied directly to geology.
Let me know something more specific about your location. What part of the county are you in (N,S E or W) and what specific township? Section, township and range may be helpful, if you have that handy. I will give you my educated opinion, for what it is worth.
Share something with me if you will please. Who is approaching you, or your neighbors, regarding leasing and what are they offering? I am trying to keep up with who is where and at what price.
My report is submitted for copywriting, and will be available for publication/distribution soon, if you are interested.
True, Jonathan, it is just a matter of time. The only mysteries are a what price and which players. It is not necessarily a negative to lease to a smaller company who is not necessarily leveraged like a major with liquidity to drill. People don't realize the incredible overhead the majors have on top of the prices paid in bonuses for the leases. Believe me, it is quite substantial. Consequently, the smaller operators who buy can mark up their leases and turn them to the majors at a profit without damage to anyone. But somebody has got to acquire a substantial leasehold interest or no drilling can take place.
Regarding your particular property, I do not have access to a township map for your county. Just tell me North, South, East or West portion (as specific as possible please) and I will respond. I am familiar with the isopach map, and need to pinpoint your location to respond accurately.
Jonathan, I am no prophet but...my humble opinion will surely coincide with what you want to hear. I have 2 different maps which indicate tha your property, especially that in the NE corner of the county is most likely oil. That is if and when this is proven as a true oil play. It is all speculation and conjecture now but, as far as this prospect goes, I would be happy to be in your shoes.
As to whether to lease at the offered price, well, you didn't ask my opinion on that so..... Good luck. Hope I have been of assistance. Keep in touch
Jonathan Muskingum County will take off when the wheeling twp well is drilled in Guernsey County the pad is made so drilling should take place soon. If it is a good well the oil and gas leassing will move west and east of this location MUSKINGUM County looks good to me. Thanks michael J Belaj
Thanks for responding. Wow! I hadn't heard anything above $500-$600. I thought $1000 sounded good. A lot can change in a short period of time. Are you at liberty to disclose who the lessee is?
Good to hear from you. Hope you had the happiest of holidays.
As far as how far West, we shall soon see. Devon Energy has pulled a horizontal and vertical permit each in both AShland and Medina counties. They purportedly are buying as far West as Richland. That would be an absolutely huge footprint for even a shale play....at least half of Ohio. Word is that the wells in the East or the River counties are well pressured at depths of 9000' or so. They are reportedly some concerns about pressure when you get less than a mile deep, which is more common moving Westward. Devon claims to know and understand this and says they can identify those areas where permeability will allow production without stimulation. Regardless of how far this play extends, remember this. There is no way half of freaking Ohio can produce at the levels disclosed by CHK regarding the Buell well and others. 3000 bbls per day oil equivalent is staggering, if the decline curve is even remotely stable. How many wells will they drill at $5 M minimum (5000" or so deep) if they are making 300 rather than 3000? There obviously has to be several sweet spots as well as large pockets of inferior geology if this play is even half as big as speculated. Also worth mentioning, Chesapeake, who started it all here really, claims the economics are superior in the wet gas region. Devon claims the oil window (still largely unproven in my opinion) is more profitable. What a great problem to have if one had to choose between the two.
Hope you are well. You had previously expressed an interest in my book, and I have decided that the time is now right to release it. I update it monthly for pertinent information and for my well/permit map. If you are interested, I will give you first look at it and help me decide if it is worthy of publication and at what price. I am pretty proud of it, but then again, I am a bit prejudiced! 120 pages approximately, including exhibits, and over 100 sources.
James Harber
May 16, 2011
James Harber
Jonathan,
I am out of the area this week, but I should have some answers for you soon.
May 16, 2011
John H
Jonathan, I think my response was mis-directed to the do-not-reply section of this site so I am retransmittting.
I am in the business, but not investd in this play. I believe I am informed enough to get involved now, and may do so in the near future. I am an amatue, but well-informed geologist. I don't want to misrepresent myself as someone trained and degreed in geology....just an interestd observer with a high IQ and a wealth of information to ponder. I am confident in any statement I make, but do not want to portray myself as a petroleum engineer of certified petroleum geologist. That being said, I believe I have a wealth of information regarding this which is not necessarily tied directly to geology.
Let me know something more specific about your location. What part of the county are you in (N,S E or W) and what specific township? Section, township and range may be helpful, if you have that handy. I will give you my educated opinion, for what it is worth.
Share something with me if you will please. Who is approaching you, or your neighbors, regarding leasing and what are they offering? I am trying to keep up with who is where and at what price.
My report is submitted for copywriting, and will be available for publication/distribution soon, if you are interested.
Best wishes,
John W. Howard
May 21, 2011
John H
True, Jonathan, it is just a matter of time. The only mysteries are a what price and which players. It is not necessarily a negative to lease to a smaller company who is not necessarily leveraged like a major with liquidity to drill. People don't realize the incredible overhead the majors have on top of the prices paid in bonuses for the leases. Believe me, it is quite substantial. Consequently, the smaller operators who buy can mark up their leases and turn them to the majors at a profit without damage to anyone. But somebody has got to acquire a substantial leasehold interest or no drilling can take place.
Regarding your particular property, I do not have access to a township map for your county. Just tell me North, South, East or West portion (as specific as possible please) and I will respond. I am familiar with the isopach map, and need to pinpoint your location to respond accurately.
May 22, 2011
John H
Jonathan, I am no prophet but...my humble opinion will surely coincide with what you want to hear. I have 2 different maps which indicate tha your property, especially that in the NE corner of the county is most likely oil. That is if and when this is proven as a true oil play. It is all speculation and conjecture now but, as far as this prospect goes, I would be happy to be in your shoes.
As to whether to lease at the offered price, well, you didn't ask my opinion on that so..... Good luck. Hope I have been of assistance. Keep in touch
May 22, 2011
Finnbear
Jun 13, 2011
michael j belaj
Jul 20, 2011
John H
Aug 30, 2011
John H
Jonathan,
Good to hear from you. Hope you had the happiest of holidays.
As far as how far West, we shall soon see. Devon Energy has pulled a horizontal and vertical permit each in both AShland and Medina counties. They purportedly are buying as far West as Richland. That would be an absolutely huge footprint for even a shale play....at least half of Ohio. Word is that the wells in the East or the River counties are well pressured at depths of 9000' or so. They are reportedly some concerns about pressure when you get less than a mile deep, which is more common moving Westward. Devon claims to know and understand this and says they can identify those areas where permeability will allow production without stimulation. Regardless of how far this play extends, remember this. There is no way half of freaking Ohio can produce at the levels disclosed by CHK regarding the Buell well and others. 3000 bbls per day oil equivalent is staggering, if the decline curve is even remotely stable. How many wells will they drill at $5 M minimum (5000" or so deep) if they are making 300 rather than 3000? There obviously has to be several sweet spots as well as large pockets of inferior geology if this play is even half as big as speculated. Also worth mentioning, Chesapeake, who started it all here really, claims the economics are superior in the wet gas region. Devon claims the oil window (still largely unproven in my opinion) is more profitable. What a great problem to have if one had to choose between the two.
Jan 3, 2012
John H
Jonathan,
Hope you are well. You had previously expressed an interest in my book, and I have decided that the time is now right to release it. I update it monthly for pertinent information and for my well/permit map. If you are interested, I will give you first look at it and help me decide if it is worthy of publication and at what price. I am pretty proud of it, but then again, I am a bit prejudiced! 120 pages approximately, including exhibits, and over 100 sources.
Feb 13, 2012