What President Trump's tax reform might mean to royalty owners

Good morning,

It is December 18th and the news is rife with reports that the republicans may finally, just for once, have their act together enough to do something worthwhile for the American people. 

Tax reform, for the first time since President Reagan in the mid 80's, appears to be a reality. This, in my  opinion, will be a help to royalty owners. Remember that not too long ago many feared and opined that we were stuck in a perpetual down market for oil and gas even though the markets had never in their history gone down in value without rebounding. We were stuck in the boosh/obama malaise, assured that 3% economic growth was a thing of the past and that renewable energy was leaving the fossil fuel market behind.

Amazing what a simple electoral change of direction can do for an economy. obama never had a single year of 3% growth in GDP, the first American president to not do so, even though he doubled the national debt in his 8 years in the White House.

American business collectively describes his presidency either as a waterboarding or a gun to the head hostage situation. Hard to argue with reality.

Well, all that seems to be in the past now. President Trump has steadily rolled back the anti-business regulatory morass left behind by obama and now appears to be set to sign tax reform into law by Christmas.

The New York Fed is reporting GDP in their sector at 4% for this quarter, the Atlanta Fed chimes in at 3.3%, we are pretty sure that this will mean the first 3 full quarters of the Trump administration will be consecutive with 3% or higher growth. Post tax reform it is not unlikely that by the middle of 2018 we could see healthy, widespread growth at 4%, despite nearly every obama friendly economist assuring us over and over that growth could never again be that high and that 2% was now the bench mark for a booming economy.

GDP growth coupled with tax savings for corporations AND individuals cannot help but spur energy consumption. American Shale now essentially guarantees expanding production. What was needed was a more disciplined production effort by American shale as well as a big uptick in consumption. The consumption increase was never going to be substantial in an economy of 2% growth.

All that has changed now. Watch the markets through to the summer of 2018 and I predict WTI will be in the $70-$75 a barrel range. I recognize that royalty owners are not paid  that figure, but the relationship between the price reported and the price paid to royalty owners exists, the more WTI goes up the more we should be seeing on our statements.

Of course I could be wrong, I am after all just some hick up on a Guernsey county ridge with a laptop and the internet. But economics are cyclical, as are politics, and we are undeniably in an upswing. I was one of the few saying 2017 would see WTI near $60 a barrel back when we seemed stuck in the low $40 a barrel range. We'll see soon enough.

Hoping everyone has a Merry Christmas and a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year !

Views: 4273

▶ Reply to This

Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Jim White on December 20, 2017 at 4:21am

Let's not forget that this country was on the verge of economic collapse when the O took office. (or is that fake news?) You don't snap your fingers and fix that. It is hard to find a credible economist that doesn't subscribe to the theory that the present economic upswing is a result of the O presidency vs what Trump has done. (except maybe for the stock market.) I live in NYC and the new tax code is going to kill me with regards to deductions for State and Local taxes as well as a few of the other clauses. On the other hand, I think/hope that the new code will help the Upstream people. Kind of a catch-22 with me.

Permalink Reply by keepthefaith on December 20, 2017 at 1:40pm

Yes, Jim, the "economic collapse" was the message perpetuated and spread to the susceptible by the media as they paved the way for the 2008 election using the "if-you-say-it-loud-enough-and-long-enough-they'll-believe it" technique - which evidently worked back then. I would be interested to know how an administration that was the only one ever to not reach 3% economic growth in any of EIGHT oppressive years of increasing economy/business-killing regulations leads to the boom we are now experiencing. Now we are enjoying optimism you can feel with the reversal of hundreds of those harmful regulations, a reversal that is leading to hiring and business expansion, and hopefully more o/g drilling in our area.  The country has left behind the depressing "The U.S. is in decline so learn to live with it" mentality and I'm looking forward to an even more booming economy with the current tax cuts.  As to NYC losing their deductions for their blue-state exorbitant taxes, out here in fly-over country we've been subsidizing you for years while you enjoy those deductions that are certainly larger than ours. I'll lose my deductions, too, but it's just time to pay your fair share.   

Permalink Reply by Barry D on December 20, 2017 at 3:10pm

JIm,

Another promoter of Fake News on GMS.

First - the country was not on the verge of economic collapse in 2009.In fact, the minor recession caused by the housing market collapse was over by the summer of 2010 (some economists say earlier)

Next - what proof is there that any policy associated with the Obama Administration is responsible for the current economic growth. The average economic growth in 8 years of the Obama Administration economic growth was 1.9%, the worst of any President in modern history.

So what changed occurred that could account for the recent positive economic growth? The election of Donald Trump.

The business world has been energized by the promises and expectations of economic policies of this President, in particular the tax cuts.

Obama had nothing to do with this. Take the blinders off.

Permalink Reply by Barry D on December 20, 2017 at 3:41pm

BTW,

Bringing this back to the subject matter of this site - Obama hated fossil fuels and was working to destroy domestic development.

The Donald Trump Administration will PROMOTE domestic development.

Permalink Reply by G.H. on December 26, 2017 at 7:07pm

Hmm, fake news?  I wish we could all stop regurgitating the president's "fake news" line and look at things objectively.  I looked at Wikipedia real quick (I know, anyone can edit it, burn me at the stake now), it states that the recession from the housing crisis lasted 2007-2009 and refers to it as "severe" and "deep," two words that certainly don't mean the same thing as minor.  If you don't give Obama any credit for pulling the country out of that situation, which he inherited, then I'd say you might have some blinders on yourself.  I have no complaints so far about the economy under Trump, despite my general dislike of him.  I would agree that there is a more positive and hopeful tone in oil and gas and the corporate world under Donald Trump.  I was not fond of the Obama administration's attitude towards fossil fuels, though I do think we should try to strike a balance between fossil fuels and renewables.  I do not think renewables should be pursued just for the sake of using renewable, that is a waste of money.  It should be economic and competitive with fossil fuels if we are going to spend money on it.

Permalink Reply by Bill Bergseid on December 22, 2017 at 4:18am

The new tax law is not what is going to kill you.  It is the 12.7% income tax (plus high sales, property and every other kind of tax) paid by NYC residents that is killing you.  Take a look at the Tax Foundation data:  https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state-local-tax-burden-ranki....

Hopefully the federal law will give the high tax states some incentive to reduce the burdens they place on residents.  Taxpayers have been fleeing these high tax states and I, for one, think the competition is good.

Permalink Reply by David Allen Lilly on December 26, 2017 at 7:02am

Jim White,

I am curious, how are you familiar with this site when you love in New York City ? And why would I subsidize the insanely high taxes in your state by allowing you to deduct them from your federal tax bill ?

My thread concerns a change in political leadership causing a change in the direction of the economy and how it will benefit royalty owners. I am curious where you fit into this discussion.

Thank you,

David

Permalink Reply by Jim White on December 21, 2017 at 12:08am

Turn off Fox New, which is an entertainment channel and either watch a real news channel or read some actual economic papers, not newspaper articles. My best advise would be to go to https://charlierose.com/ and search out the shows with past world leaders and economists on both sides of the issue. This guy won the noble in economics, but is very biased against Trump (so is the Times). His reasoning however is interesting. https://www.nytimes.com/column/paul-krugman  

My last words on this off topic matter.

Permalink Reply by keepthefaith on December 21, 2017 at 1:44pm

I rarely listen to FOX and never listen to any of the mainstream media - ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, etc. - who only espouse liberal views and who no longer "report" the news but instead are a liberal opinion mouthpiece. Try to find anything about Fusion GPS or Uranium 1 and the Hillary/Obama/Mueller/Comey connections to Russia in the mainstream media or how about Obama's obstruction of justice as he disrupted law enforcement's plan to shut down Hezbollah's U.S. drug smuggling?  They choose not to "report" it and if you've not heard of these, you're living in their alternative universe.  Read economic articles?  Most of them are written by academics who sit in ivory towers and theorize lofty thoughts which are mostly liberal/socialist/communist leaning. I believe Keynesian economics was Obama's plan for the poor economy during his tenure and that didn't turn out so well.  Past world leaders?  You mean the globalists who want us to capitulate and let them run our country?  Charlie Rose?  He is a liberal Democrat so why would we trust him any more than FOX news?  Obama won the Nobel and had never done anything so a Nobel doesn't cut anything.  I prefer to listen to real people who understand real people and how they live, not the elites who think I can't run my own life.  I do agree - It's time to get back to o/g news. 

Permalink Reply by Bill Bergseid on December 22, 2017 at 3:56am

There are no real news channels.  The Wall Street Journal has a weekly news program that is about as good as you can do.

Permalink Reply by G.H. on December 26, 2017 at 7:19pm

There is some real news out there, I think.  You just have to READ it, not watch it.  Pretty much all TV/cable news is garbage.  And if you are reading it on a TV/cable news channel's website, then it is just a waste of time because it's the same thing as what's on TV.

Permalink Reply by Jim White on December 25, 2017 at 9:39pm

Did I really spell it Noble? Sorry....:) I think the Rose show might have been the most important "news" show that has ever been on TV. A hundred years from now when people want to find out what was happening during this era, that will be where they look. Too bad he got caught up in his own scandal and is no longer on.

RSS

© 2024   Created by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher).   Powered by

Badges  |  Report an Issue  |  Terms of Service