Drilling Prospects Dim for Mahoning County and Trumbull County, Ohio
Oil and gas drilling prospects dim here, expert says
Published: Fri, April 29, 2016 @ 12:08 a.m.
YOUNGSTOWN
If oil and natural-gas prices increase substantially, new well drilling likely will get a boost in Columbiana County, but the prospects aren’t good in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, an industry expert said.
“Right now, you’re really just looking at Belmont, Harrison, Monroe, and maybe a little bit of Noble County” as the focus of drilling activity, said Mike Chadsey, public-relations director for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, a 3,000-member industry group.
“As the price shrunk, the geographic play shrunk; and, as price expands, the play will expand,” Chadsey said.
Chadsey was among about 65 people who attended a luncheon last week sponsored by the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber at Mill Creek MetroParks’ Fellows Riverside Gardens, which featured Ohio Department of Natural Resources officials as speakers.
If oil and gas prices rise, “There’ll probably be a little activity in Columbiana County, but everything that we have seen in Trumbull and Mahoning [counties] doesn’t look like the rock is there,” Chadsey said.
“This is all about what the rock will do – the Utica and maybe the Marcellus [shale]. It just doesn’t seem workable up here,” he said, citing BP’s decision to withdraw from Trumbull County production activities in 2014.
The production numbers reported by ODNR for 2014 and 2015 support Chadsey’s assertion.
In Columbiana County, natural-gas production soared from 21.3 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 37 billion cubic feet in 2015.
That county’s oil production rose from 172,388 barrels in 2014 to 214,412 barrels last year.
In Mahoning County, natural-gas production was a mere 4 billion cubic feet each year, and oil production slumped from 26,929 barrels in 2014 to 22,378 barrels last year.
Trumbull County’s natural-gas production fell from 1 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 628 million cubic feet in 2015, and oil production there plummeted from 40,668 barrels in 2014 to 10,871 barrels last year.
No new oil and gas wells were drilled last year in Mahoning or Trumbull counties, the trade association reported.
The industry needs an oil price between $75 and $80 per barrel to make expansion of drilling activity attractive, Chadsey said.
“Three dollars or $4 an mcf [1,000 cubic feet of natural gas] would make the Utica just very exciting again,” he added.
Drilling is expensive, with each horizontal well now costing about $2 million to drill, he noted.
Oil now ranges from $40 to $43 a barrel, and Chadsey said natural gas is now as low as $1 or less per mcf due to Ohio’s gas surplus and lack of large users.
The new $890 million Lordstown Energy Center, which will be a natural-gas-fueled power plant in the Lordstown Industrial Park, for which site preparation is now underway, will be a large natural-gas user, Chadsey said.
Chadsey said he expects Ohio’s oil and gas production will continue to increase “marginally” this year “as old wells become hooked up to the pipeline network.”
Ohio’s oil and gas production this year will depend on the markets for those commodities, said Rick Simmers, ODNR’s oil and gas division chief, who was a luncheon speaker here.
“I think we’re going to still see an increase, at least for the first two quarters, but it’ll be at a lower rate than it has been,” Simmers predicted.
“If the commodity prices remain low, then into the third and fourth quarters, I would guess that the production’s going to begin to decline, compared to wherever it peaks, but not dramatically,” he predicted.
Ohio’s oil production doubled from 10.9 million barrels in 2014 to 21.9 million barrels last year.
Its natural-gas production rose 110.6 percent from 452 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 953 billion cubic feet last year.
- See more at: http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/apr/29/expert-well-drilling-prospect...
Views: 3273
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Maybe a long wait - maybe not so long - depending on the variables and associated unknowns. Variables such as forging better trade agreements, sanctions and boycotts against unfriendly / hostile / would be hostile countries, politics, expanding markets resulting in more domestic natural gas useage, technological advancements, improved developmental efficiencies etc.
I still say giddyup - sooner is better than later.
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Barry D,
Can you share in greater detail the issues the geologists you've spoken to have identified ?
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Permalink Reply by Mike Murphy on
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dhttp://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=26052
look at the new maps most of Ashtabula is out of the Utica and trumbull and Mahoning are on the edge with many different fault lines causing the formation to be very hard to drill and probably is what is causing the earthquake activity ......with all the earthquakes not many producers want to drill there for possible liability for damages because of those faults is why they have attempted to drill different directions then nw to se
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Check your fire.
Appears to me all of (dry land) Ashtabula County is in the 'Utica Play'.
Appears to me offshore (Lake Erie) is not; but, the 'Rome Trough' lies beneath.
I've read on these pages elsewhere that some E & Ps have actually tracked 'Fault Lines' with their long horizontal bores and have found 'Pools' in so doing.
That's what I see when I read the EIA maps attached to your reply.
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your blinded by the light the rome trough is no where near you and there is too many faults to be able to follow just one .....the rome trough runs along the ohio river up thru southwest pa to central pa nowhere near trumbull Mahoning or Ashtabula county
y fault lines up there to be able to follow just one
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Click To Enlarge Mike.
Lower left corner of 1st map.
I see my error on the 'Rome Trough' however.
Took Tan for Pink in my haste.
Tan identifies the extent of the 'Appalachian Basin'.
Calling Tan the 'Rome Trough' was of course my mistake - that's where I was wrong - but not any more.
The Utica however covers about half the area of the dry land of the State of Ohio.
That's where you're wrong.
G'nite Dudley.
PS: Was working on my little smart phone screen earlier which helped me make my mistake.
What's your excuse ?
LOL
J-O
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no excuse you are the one looking for excuses as to why the oil companies are not drilling up there but u don't want to hear the reasons u want to hope all the experts are wrong .......Not deep enough, not mature enough, oil is thicker, parafin issues do u hear Barry D
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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I'd look for an excuse if I were you.
Also, don't tell me what I'm looking for because you just don't know - only I know.
Those issues you cite are impacting the economics and I never denied it.
But I'd wager they can all be defeated - actually I believe they already are.
Also if they want to they'll manipulate and change the economics to suit the circumstance / their desires - it's been done many, many times in the past and all they have to do is do it again.
Personally I believe when they want it they'll come and get it and that's all it will take.
If it were up to me I'd embargo all OPEC oil from our country and all allied countries - and the embargo would be enforced with whatever it took to enforce it. We would also convert to Natural Gas wherever we could and use our own bloody natural resources while developing renewables to loadshare.
There's no need for me to look for excuses Mike - to me it's obvious that they just don't want to develop and use ours - they want what's happening now as they're making money just the way it is. But, that could change in another New York minute (which I hope never happens again) if you know what I mean (and it's a question in my mind that you do).
BTW - I think you're the one that's blind (to the bigger picture).
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Permalink Reply by Barry D on
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Joseph,
Not deep enough, not mature enough, oil is thicker, parafin issues etc.
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Clinton and roserun are completely different formations then the Utica they evolved thousands of years apart ......there is no comparison between them
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Where did their oil deposits/ pools come from Mike ?
Could it have been 'the (Utica) source rock' that all the oil and gas pros told us of ?
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Barry D,
For the record book my beliefs follow :
If the oil and natural gas is there (and it is as it has been identified as the 'source rock' for the oil), and if they want it, they'll come and get it.
Of course sooner would be better than later as far as I'm concerned.
I take it that the 'Not deep enough, not mature enough, oil is thicker, parafin issues etc.' came from the geologist folks you were talking to earlier. How do they explain the Clinton and Rose Run Pools that exist then I wonder ? ?
These are the kind of things that don't allow me to abandon my above recorded beliefs friend.
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