Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on September 13, 2014 at 4:26am

Source: http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N0RB3J720140910

Poland looks to import natural gas from United States, Canada

Wed Sep 10, 2014 1:40pm GMT

By Michal Janusz

WARSAW, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Poland is looking for partners in the United States and Canada from whom it could import liquefied natural gas (LNG) for its terminal due to be launched next year, Polish Deputy Economy Minister Ilona Antoniszyn-Klik said.

She added that representatives of Poland's largest energy companies will go to the United States in September to hold talks on potential deliveries, but said U.S. LNG prices were uncompetitive for Polish clients for now.

"We are ready to find trade partners in the United States and Canada, who would supply gas to the newly-constructed LNG terminal in Swinoujscie," she in comments authorised for release on Wednesday.

The Polish LNG terminal in the port city of Swinoujscie on the Baltic coast will initially be able to accept 5 billion cubic metres of LNG per year. Poland expects that the terminal to accept first deliveries by end-June 2015.

"For now the prices offered by U.S. companies seem not very competitive for Polish clients, but there is a chance that prices will fall on the global market in the near-term," Antoniszyn-Klik said.

She also said Poland was working on securing permits for importing LNG from the United States.

The United States is expected to start exporting larger quantities of LNG in 2015/2016 after it eased restrictions on exports in May this year.

Poland is looking to diversify its gas imports away from Russia. Russian gas is currently accounting for about three-quarters of Polish natural gas consumption.

Poland said on Wednesday the volume of gas it has received so far this week from Russian gas monopoly Gazprom was down by at least 20 percent.

Some European countries believe Moscow may use a disruption of gas to Europe as a trump card in its confrontation with the West over Ukraine. The row has already dragged ties between Moscow and the West down to their worst since the Cold War. (Writing by Marcin Goettig Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

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Patience .... Jack says it's a "Slow Train Coming".

http://www.mojvideo.com/video-bob-dylan-slow-train-coming/8e5ed8673...

JS

Permalink Reply by Barry D on September 13, 2014 at 4:36am

JS,

Will the current capacity of U.S. companies be able to meet the need in Poland?

Or is this something to look forward to as ne LNG shipping capacity comes on line?

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on September 13, 2014 at 8:50am

Europe (both Eastern and Western) have become dependent upon Russian Oil and Natural Gas.

Solar and wind have turned out to be disasters (look to the experiences of Germany and Spain for examples).

 

With Vladimir Putin’s recent steps to re-establish the Soviet Union … using Europe’s energy dependency as a weapon, Europe are suddenly looking for alternative stable sources …. and they are looking longingly west to North America (expecting us to bail them out of a nasty predicament once again).

 

What Natural Gas Canada has is on their western side; eastern Canada looks to become increasingly dependent upon Marcellus/Utica Natural Gas.

 

Mexico has undeveloped Natural Gas potential that will likely remain undeveloped for the foreseeable future; as Mexico increasingly looks to import cheap Natural Gas and NGLs from Texas to displace their internal use of more valuable oil (freeing that oil for export).

 

So, who has excess Natural Gas; who has the potential to quickly ramp up Natural Gas production for potential export …. We do!

 

Which gets around to the question “Will the current capacity of U.S. companies be able to meet the need in Poland?”

 

Poland are not yet prepared to receive LNG  …. maybe next year.

The U.S. is not yet prepared to export LNG in meaningful quantities  …. Maybe in the next several years.

Politics (and powerful lobbyists) may thwart the ability to export of LNG in meaningful quantities.

 

Dominion’s Cove Point, MD facility was originally constructed for the IMPORT of LNG.

Dominion now wish to expand this facility; converting it to an LNG EXPORT facility.

Dominion are fighting politicians from a particular party …. and Dominion are fighting local and national special interest groups in opposition to both the expansion of Cove Point and to the export of LNG.

 

Hence, my reference to “Slow Train Coming”  ….. it will be a slow train coming …. maybe not really gathering steam until 2018 or 2019.

 

The country that quickly geared up in 1941 and (almost overnight) built hundreds of ships … and thousands of airplanes … and thousands of tanks … and mobilized a huge workforce (including women who had never joined as workers; outside of home, farm and ranch) … and mobilized, trained and sent millions of troops across the seas  … now cannot seem to get anything meaningful done in any meaningful period of time … it will be a slow train coming.

 

All IMHO,

                    JS

Permalink Reply by Barry D on September 13, 2014 at 10:26am

JS,

If we had to fight WWII today we would lose.

Permalink Reply by Den on September 13, 2014 at 12:11pm

Well said, Jack.

Permalink Reply by Philip Brutz on September 13, 2014 at 12:13pm

How many LNG ports and ships would it take to supply the needs of eastern Europe?

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on September 13, 2014 at 4:18pm

Some LNG exporting countries capable of supplying Europe (from a reasonable sailing distance):

Norway

Algeria

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

Equatorial Guniea

Nigeria

Angola

Trinidad and Tobago

 

Some of the European countries have been receiving shipments from one (or more) of the above.

 

However, many of the countries in Europe (there seems to be a new one created (or re-created) with some frequency) have been largely dependent upon Natural Gas pipelined from Russia (often through Ukraine).

 

LNG is often sold via long term contracts; with limited amounts available on the spot market …. That purchased on the spot market tends to sell at prices well in excess of the (take or pay) contracted LNG.

 

The U.S. (if and when it becomes a significant LNG exporter) would compete with the existing exporters (and any potential new exporters such as Israel).

 

If (as makes perfect sense) Europe (east and west) decides to wean itself from a strong dependence upon Russian Natural Gas, they will need to seek new suppliers. If (as would meke sense) that wish to opt for stable/dependable sources; they will look across the Atlantic.

 

RE: “How many LNG ports and ships would it take to supply the needs of eastern Europe?”

 

More than currently exist … and more than can be quickly built.

Europe could be looking at several very cold winters, should Russia choose to force it upon them.

 

All IMHO,

                    JS  

Permalink Reply by 1s6j41o27wclh on September 14, 2014 at 11:19pm

Israel?

Permalink Reply by Trapper on September 15, 2014 at 12:19am

Yes,Israel. They are sitting on a huge gas reserve.

Permalink Reply by Trapper on September 15, 2014 at 3:14am

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5N0RB3WL20140910

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on September 15, 2014 at 1:27am

Jack,

Russia you bring up.

Not getting the impression that Putin / Russia is buying into the whole New World Order concept.

Maybe he / they would if Communist Russia was in total control of it all.

What happens say he / they turn off the gas and Europe  erupts in heating fuel wars  (as those countries begin buying their fuel from another source than Russia and Russia begins destroying the new suppliers) ?

What happens if the USA begins exporting LNG to those countries needing the fuel ?

Do you think Putin / Russia would begin destroying our LNG fleet ?

Do you think we may be on the cusp of igniting a huge war with Communist Russia with Putin at the helm ?

Being the sort of fellow I am I can't rule that scenario out.

What do you think ?

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on September 15, 2014 at 1:21pm

When I write 'our fleet' I mean the 'fleet' transporting our LNG sold to whoever buys and / or transports it; as I think there would be ships from numerous flags involved.

I guess there's always big risks associated with big rewards but it does give me the willy's just thinking about it all - really.

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