Shell's 3rd Utica well in NW Tioga PA set to report..........

Happy New Year to All!

Production reports will be hitting for PA before we know it.  We already saw the results for the Neal and Gee wells, and this report will add the Synnestvedt well in Osceola township, Tioga County, PA, Shell's third Utica well in this area.  There are many looking to this well to see if the Utica does in fact reach this far north, and what type of production it has given since being drilled.  
Obviously, most, if not all of you have seen the below map.  And there seems to be quite a heavy weighting to that 'point pleasant' line, as some major line of demarcation that is not to be questioned for any reason.  However, I have yet to see concrete evidence that supports this thesis.  As a matter of fact, if the Synnestvedt well, which is well north of this 'line', is commercially viable, we have to question the validity and concern of this 'line' as a hard border.  Taking it a step further, if this well, which is on the border with NY, produces even close to the Gee well, we have to question this foregone conclusion and consider the entire northern acreage just north of the point pleasant as commercially viable and green-lighted as drillable for the operators.  This will open the door for north west Potter county and tracts in McKean county to be intensely leased.





Back to the Synnestvdet well results:  there seems to be some thought that it is on a choke.  I would not be surprised to see the well come in around the 7.5-11 mmcf 30 day IP, as it serves a few purposes on Shell's behalf.  First and foremost, they have more acreage to lease in the nw quadrant of Tioga (all you holdouts out there waiting for more money, higher royalties, and lower deducts, and i happen to agree with y'all!). So if you were Shell, would you rather report another huge Neal well, or another very solid Gee well?  
Also, if Shell is aware that the point pleasant is not meaningful for dry gas, due to reporting a giant, lease deals in northern potter get more expensive as well.  So again, it pays for them to not report a massive well on the northern border of tioga.  
Perhaps there are other reasons that it is on a 'choke', and not just purely for economic reasons, whatever the case may be, it is much more important to know the wide-open production as that gives us a better picture of what the actual potential is across the play.  That production number just might be another 6-12 months away.
Let's take a look at a few more maps.  Hmmmmm......upper devonian, another target formation.   Western and north western Potter are within its boundaries as well as south eastern McKean......... 

Inline image 1
And below, this is from EQT as well, you can visit their IR page, from their december 2014 preso, you can see these maps.  This is what they are considering commercially viable maps for the utica, no surprise, their lines DO NOT take into consideration the all knowing point pleasant line.  There is also another operator that has mentioned that the pp is meaningless for dry gas production, no surprise its not part of their press releases.
Inline image 2
 
I hope this post solicits a healthy conversation on the new Northern Utica and how the trend develops over 2015.  Expectations are for permits to begin hitting across Potter for a few Utica exploratory wells.  Hancock pad?  Leasing continues to be robust in the county, with prices at their highs for the last 5 years, last I heard they were from $2,000 - $2,500 bonus, with royalty rates as high as 15%, no deduct, either 5 year, or 5 + 5. 
Obviously, with just solid production report from Shell's Synnestvedt, an entire area north of the pp line will be opened to leasing activity and a once previously held belief will be discarded, one that seems to have been already discarded internally by a few, if not many, operators.
 

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by G S Gass on January 14, 2015 at 3:37am

Thanks for the much needed clarification of Shell's well pad configuration!

Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on January 5, 2015 at 3:21pm

I see no information here about the Sharrett (sp?) well? Anyone know?

Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on January 6, 2015 at 1:25pm

The Sharrett should technically have been the third Utica well?

Permalink Reply by Tim on January 9, 2015 at 6:20am

Deb,

I am not aware of the Sharrett.  I have been informed that the Watkins pad has 3 Utica wells drilled, 2 possible 3 fracked.  There is some chatter on the numbers, and sounds like this well is going to confirm the Neal and open more eyes to the area.

Also, there continues to be permit updates on the Hancock pad and now a new one yesterday.  Are there any folks out there following the permits in Potter.  It seems we have a few Utica wells potentially drilled in 2015.

Best to all,

Tim

Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on January 9, 2015 at 9:05am

The Sharrett well is a couple miles south of Beechwood Lake in Clymer Twp. It's a Utica well, pipeline was run in last fall.....it's really odd to me that there's no news about it. It was finished drilling the end of Jan. '14 and was frac'ed shortly after. 

I find it really odd that there's no mention anywhere. 

Permalink Reply by Tim on January 10, 2015 at 6:17am

Deb, 

that's odd, does not show up in state of pa dep of energy production report.  It may not be producing, as any producing well has to report volumes.

Are you in the unit? have u called the operator of the well?

By chance, could it be under a different name?

Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on January 10, 2015 at 1:30pm

Nope, I live more in the center of the county. I just know people who worked on the Sharrett? So I am really confused now. 

Permalink Reply by JOE REDDING on January 10, 2015 at 2:01pm
Tim, I think it may be Sharretts 805 that Deb is referring to
Permalink Reply by Darrell Weaver on January 11, 2015 at 2:57am

Deb,

I have a camp near Sharrett Well(s). I can tell you that all equipment is on site and the well heads HAVE NOT been hooked up as of yet and the connection to the main line 3/4 mile away is almost complete.

Seems like Shell is no hurry to bring online.........Would u b at todays prices....?

I can also tell you that Shell has a completed Permit to drill another well on site to 12156"'..........looks like they r going fishing in the Trenton Black River. It is listed as a TBR well on DEP website

Looks like if Shell picked up the pace all 3 wells could be online within a few days................all of this information is current as of 1 week ago

Permalink Reply by Tim on January 11, 2015 at 3:18am
Darrell,

That's great information! Thanks for clarifying for us.
Permalink Reply by Deb Reynolds on January 11, 2015 at 6:10am

yeah, thanks, that's fascinating! 

Permalink Reply by Darrell Weaver on January 11, 2015 at 8:44am

I was there a while back the first night they flared the Utica well...............sure was a pretty sight to behold and they drew a crowd as well...........

Flared it for over 3 weeks

Lets just say I have a vested interest in the well pad next door to be drilled soon n Shell wanted my land......   :)

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