Speculation for Oil prices and impact on Oil production in Ohio and PA

There seems to a lot of speculation out there about where oil prices are headed.  In my opinion, this is deal. For the next 12 to 18 months, prices will be depressed due to several factors. Once oil drifts toward 27 to 28 dollars, there will be dramatic rise back to the 65 to 70 price range in a couple years. So we will see this oil price slide for the next 18 months, then this dramatic rise to 70 price range.  After three years, oil will eventually fall again due to long term structural factors related to technological shift and renewal sources.

Factors contributing to this are several.  Short term, China's industry will be depressed which will effect their demand for oil.  Fracking production in the US will continue surpass demand due to investments already made in production.  Despite all the talk of terrorism in the middle east, actual production will increase as Iraqi oil facilities continue rebound, Iran being allowed to sell oil back to the global markets. 

With prices in their lows, oil production will over correct as speculators go out of business and the markets all spread doom and gloom.  US oil production will be in a 10 year low. Just when everyone talks about how oil prices have fallen, attention quickly shifts to how oil production in the US has really fallen, and global production has slowed.  U.S Oil demand will rebound slightly as the economy rebounds as consumer confidence increases due to the honeymoon effect of a new US president.

So hopefully, you land leases will renew in the next 2 to 3 years. By then, you will be in a better position to renew your leases. Otherwise, I would just wait until all the doom and gloom is over with.  A word of caution though, long term there really isn't a future in oil growth in our economy due to technological gains.

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