How will the gas industry look next year & beyond? How will this surge in gas consumption and high prices change the landscape of the gas industry? Who will be the winners & losers?
If I was a producer I would be hedging the beans out of my production ... Production keeps creeping higher and sooner or later the world will be awash in LNG , but that will take awhile ,, Cautiously Bullish as of today , that might change with the next headline ,,, increasing production and the threat of a recession keeps me on edge .... GDP numbers come out on Wed ,, could be a market mover ....
Who will be a winner ?? Those who are the lowest cost producers and are least hedged .. Keep an eye out for AR , CRK .... also CHK .... EQT and RRC will be in the running as well ... CTRA a high quality outfit doesn't get much 'love' , cnx is highly hedged , NFG doesn't inspire Investors , NFG is good but 'boring ' .... AR reports Wed after the Close ...
Oiler CLR is one to watch as H Hamm wants to buy out the Corp ...... CLR reports Thurs after the Close ......
For you NFL fans , CRK is owned by Dallas Cowboys ownwr Jerry Jones
surging gas prices, yet our lease holder SWN pumps nothing near us. CABOT owns leases in the same area, they’ve been pumping whole hog for YEARS. It just seems SWN, others not producing are just out to flip the leases.
I WISH SWN would sell out to CABOT.
SWN is not the strongest producer out there ,, lots of debt and poor hedges ...Best of luck ...
How is demand looking today for more NG? What will this winter look like for Europe without Russian NG? How does Europe store NG? Does it have to be LNG until used or can LNG go back to NG and then stored as we do in underground storage?
I’ve heard that NG usage from USA should be up due to the war. Thus, we should be exporting more. Y, the export LNG & im not positive, but I think it can b converted back to no.
US LNG shipments are basically full for now , with new facilities under construction ... Keep an eye out for Aussie Land ... Some chatter that they will curtail LNG exports this Fall .... Chessie reports tonight ,, its highly rated by many
Gas prices are dictated by our weather ... Cold in the winter , hot in the Summer is bullish ..... Due to high prices , production is creeping up , which is something to keep am eye on .... Gas has been volatile..... I would be hedging if I was in power .... Euro gas play ... NRT ,,,,, This is not a recommendation ..... Euro gas is mostly stored underground .....
Thnx. Ur definitely right.
CNX just released its 2nd Quarter results last week, with guidance for the rest of 2022 indicating they're going to lose $1.6B due to hedges. There's a tough row to hoe for some that were locked into longer term derivatives before they get back to drilling. Only once they work through these positions can they enjoy these higher prices. Until then, such hedging might as well be shorthand for hemorrhedging
(That $1.6B loss is equal to about 3 recent years-worth of CNX's annual capital expenditure budget).
Have you noticed their stock has declined the past 3 days since the 2Q report last week? How important is Indiana, Westmoreland & Armstrong counties to their profit line now? They seem to be pulling back from Greene County. Will those 3 counties mentioned become the new "core area"?
I'm not an insider, but their play (CNX's) is Dry Utica and they've got an acreage position in all these counties. They proved up Westmoreland/Armstrong border with the most #1 and #2 most prolific wells (maybe anywhere in the World, ever?). The gas is there, it's a matter of figuring out how to get it out of the ground without blowing the other strata or casings to smithereens and having a blowout like they did at Shaw 1G. EQT is the other Armstrong Co player of note who can fully develop the Utica themselves.
Interestingly Penn Energy (active more toward Butler, and NW of the Allegheny R in Armstrong with complex 3rd party investor deals in the Marcellus) was saying 5 years ago that the Marcellus in S. Central PA was not Tier II or III but every bit as good as the core-of-the-core in SW PA and OH, acreages and ownership was just more fractionalized, so that the factory-production methods EQT was using in Greene, Washington, and Belmont Cos that require contiguous acreage wasn't as readily done, so the major E&Ps disparaged it.
Meanwhile, MDS (Snyder Brothers) has brought in some very eye-popping Marcellus wells (they're keeping the light on for someone, HBP well and acreage isn't conventional, any longer.
EQT themselves was on the cusp of proving up Armstrong Co in the Dry Utica in 2017 when the merger with Rice put the brakes on moving their Utica rig to Kittanning Twp after it was announced. EQT is actively plugging but under Toby Rice it's not clear they'd come back to S. Central PA until someone else proves up the Utica here
Exco had positions and JV's in place around N. Armstrong and could get active again.
Nobody else was more buried by the hedges than CNX. Just about everyone laid down their rigs to become pure-play financial instruments corporations, some more successfully than others. They've mostly been economic engines the past couple of years, paying down debt and buying back stock.
Hopefully one or another comes back to S Central PA soon. Who it will be is whoever gains enough of an acreage position, probably by joint venturing with the ones who hold by production. In Armstrong County, that looks like Snyder Bros, Kriebel Bros (who has zero permits going forward, statewide), Vernard L. Shumaker (besides just CNX or EQT that is).