When will the next lease boom happen?

if you look at natural gas prices back in 2011-2012 the prices were terrible trading under $2 but energy companies were leasing everything around paying $thousands per acre bonus spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Fast forward to 2018, natural gas prices are trading over $3, the cracker plant is being built, multiple other big gas projects are popping up, gas lines are being built, and energy companies are doing very little leasing other then select areas? I would think if natural gas prices keep working up we should see more leasing activity, I’m surprised it’s so quiet in so many areas?

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Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on September 26, 2018 at 12:20am

Many of the E&Ps are leased in enough areas to keep them busy for some time....and they are enjoying the low hanging fruit of their labors.

There will have to be a sustained uptick in NG prices, takeaway and demand before the 'wild west' days return....if ever.

In my humble opinion.

Permalink Reply by james on September 26, 2018 at 5:23am

Why was there a boom in the first place during that time period? Natural gas was at multi year lows, the infrastructure wasn’t here to get the gas/oil out, no cracker plant talk at that time??? Since that 2011-2012 lease boom there have been multiple gas projects built and many more planned, to me now that Natural gas is over 50% higher and the cracker plant and other new projects will need a bunch of gas that companies would be more active now then back then?

Permalink Reply by Blueflame_02 on September 26, 2018 at 6:35am

I think in general (very similar to what is happening in the Permian right now), companies are trying to get anything and everything. Investors liked to see 15-20% or higher growth rates and companies had to add land to produce more gas faster. Back when prices were low, the majority of the acreage wasn't leased and companies went where they thought the "core" was. Fast forward to today and the core has been identified. Investors no longer want to see large growth rates and we will see a steady stream of gas from Appalachia. Companies are only going to have look for areas they are actively drilling in to lease and more than likely that acreage is already leased by another company. Unless a new formation pops up, or the PA Utica really takes off, it will be awhile before we see any fast paced movement in Appalachia.

Permalink Reply by Joan Sutter Anderson on October 2, 2018 at 9:11am

We are located in Butler County, PA, Washington Township.  Landlady beginning contacts for next drilling unit in that area.

Offer is $2000 per acre, 14% royalties, and get this....with a deduction for transportation costs.

Landlady is not able to provide ANY figures for transportation costs.  She says there is no way of knowing that.  That sounds like a huge "red flag" to me.  They could charge as much as they want. 

So...I need some opinions...does this sound like the going deals? I know folks who plan to sign for that. Is there any negotiation? Or does that not exist for the small property owner.   

Permalink Reply by james on October 2, 2018 at 9:23am

Is the Landlady working for Edgemarc Energy? I know they are leasing in Butler County.

Permalink Reply by Joan Sutter Anderson on October 2, 2018 at 9:29am

BOP land services for Edgemarc.

Permalink Reply by james on October 2, 2018 at 9:32am

I figured it was them, they mainly lease in Butler County.

Permalink Reply by Joan Sutter Anderson on October 2, 2018 at 9:37am

I'm new to this since our last go round back in 2011-12 when we worked with BCLG.

Any thoughts about this offer?

Permalink Reply by james on October 2, 2018 at 9:42am

I follow Butler County since I own acreage there, I know they were offering $1750 and 14% earlier this year so at least they are upping the offer a little? I don’t know how many companies are currently leasing in Butler County so I don’t know if there is a competition issue or not? I do know natural gas and oil have been going up nicely and are forecasted to go much higher later this year. If you have a lawyer you use you probably want to have them look at the offer and get their take.

Permalink Reply by JMS on October 2, 2018 at 10:20am
Thank you...
Any other points of view, suggestions, or thoughts would be appreciated.

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