skill, talent, experience, personalty, style- persons? no gas companies, do they vary? and how!

Not that unusual but for any of us following PA Marcellus successes, the example couldnt be any better. Do company mgmt styles and skils vary and what does it mean?

 Look at the prices of COG, XCO, RRC, PVA, CHK, SWN and what am I missing? Online you can find any # of sites with charts that goes back several years, use weekly or monthly data.

 PVR Penn Virginia, they do important work in erecting pipelines, we need them in Lycoming Cnty etc but as natural gas scouts, terrible, their focus was Potter County. While I hope all is not gone for our brethren there, but to date there are no worthy results.

 COG with RRC just behind, Cabot and Range that is, are leaders in having chosen areas proving to be very productive. Depth, thickness, richness can be gleaned from old well logs, free to anyone from the DCNR. The H.Wesley Pease well, 20006,  1973, Shell Oil, attracted COG to Susquehanna.

 SWN, Southwestern is producing 2 Billion cu ft a day from their Fayetteville assert (shale experts) and though their Marcellus position is much smaller, they have only a small % that is non-prospective. E Bradford, C E Susquehanna and their Lycoming land all looks very good.

 Exco, XCO, partially owned by took on land in southern Wayne County, Lackawanna and other poor choices. W Centre, appears marginal, we will see. They bought Lycoming leases and wells from Chief, which is producing but even that, far E Lycoming is grade B.

 Chesapeake obviously has tremendous land in Bradford and SW Susquehanna, but the bulk of their claimed Marcellus position is lacking according to regional practitioners. Their step on anyone style hasn’t seemed to matter, seems no one likes them. Does anyone have an opinion on whether their rep will affect re-leasing objectives? Will landowners have other choices?

 

Thanks for listening, just sharing what I pick up, believed to be accurate but no guarantees.

Humpherys

+++

COG is at all time highs, up 300% in 3 years. PVR is 4, sinking fast down from 80, yikes. Exco, dead in the water, sinking over time. Etc.

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Robert A. Young on January 31, 2013 at 12:54pm

It would be a lot easier understanding you if you would write in full, clear sentences. 

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on January 31, 2013 at 2:26pm

Sorry, no il intended but it is clear to me.

Permalink Reply by Robert A. Young on January 31, 2013 at 2:34pm

Wow, that's all that matters isn't it indeed.  I read the Daily Review. LOL

Permalink Reply by sircedric on February 6, 2013 at 12:52pm

I kind of agree with you Robert. Sorry Melissa, maybe we are just to old to understand you at times. I will say it dosn't do justice to write something then at the end say "I believe to be accurate but no guarantees. But keep posting, maybe we will catch on.

 

Permalink Reply by Tug Steward on February 6, 2013 at 9:59am

I believe its difficult to judge, precisely, on various companies and the quality of their land holdings,  No doubt Cabot is in good shale, but could they have had motivation to maximize production from their holdings (needed cash flow?, hedged advantageously?, had secured pipeline capacity? and/or desperately needed favorable news coverage?).  Might other E&Ps like CHK, situated in some of the same shale, be moderating production and taking a longer view on the production from a well?  SWN, TSM, Chief and Citrus are no doubt marching to their own drummers. Time and data will answer these interesting questions.

Permalink Reply by Frank Walker on February 7, 2013 at 3:24am

I appreciate your remarks, Melissa.  But I wish you also had commented on Talisman.  TLM has significant acreage in Bradford County.  I believe they are second only to CHK.

In addition, the recent management shakeup at the top of TLM, in Calgary, has given pause to some Bradco TLM Lessors. 

Permalink Reply by Tug Steward on February 7, 2013 at 4:30pm

Frank - I'll bite.  What was the nature of the shake up in Calgary?  I read a fair amount of stuff - didn't see this yet.

Permalink Reply by Frank Walker on February 8, 2013 at 3:40am

Yeah, it happened a few months back.  John Manzoni is out as CEO.  Hal Kvisle is the new CEO.  My first thought back at that time went to impact, if any, on royalty owners like me.  Compared with Manzoni, a former BP guy and an older guy, Kvisle struck me as more a hard liner.

Link to article

When a company is bleeding they look to bind up their wounds.  Just ask CHK royalty owners.  It ain't pretty.

I liked Manzoni because royalty owner policies under his leadership were quite favorable to us.  So far so good under Kvisle.  But it's early.  I'll know a little more in a few days when my first 2013 royalty check arrives.  I'm hoping for no policy changes.  But I take nothing for granted.

.

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Permalink Reply by Frank Walker on February 8, 2013 at 5:26am

ETA

Well, it's only a short time after my earlier post so my royalty check, obviously, still has not arrived and won't for several days.  But I just scoped out my January royalties on the net and:

Kvisle is looking pretty darn good!!!  TLM is paying circa $3.79!!  I am blown away.  First 2013 royalty amount is way larger than I was anticipating.  TLM comes through again!!  Ya gotta love it!!

Permalink Reply by Robert A. Young on February 7, 2013 at 10:00pm

Thanks Lanny;

I'll put it this way with respect to all writers:

Anyone who attempts to communicate the written word and publishes it, takes on the ethical responsibility of ensuring that their readers understand what is being written.  

The relationship between the writer and the reader is based on the major premise of trust and competence in the craft of the wordsmith.

When attempts don't rise to meet this standard, the activity invariably becomes counterproductive and may be construed as a waste of time.

Therefore, the act of writing is not merely just for the writer's edification,

Writers should write for the people, not for themselves and thoroughly back up their claims with hard evidence, instead of making lazy excuses after the fact.  

Some writers don't understand that good writing is very hard work indeed, and they don't exert the necessary energy to be effective communicators at all.  

Some writers lace their pieces with spin and agendas, and fail to write for the good of the people.

Readers can apply these reflections to all posts in cyberspace and to cold print literature too.

With a sensitivity and respect for their reader, ultimately good writers really should research, ponder and precisely weigh everything they write,and make appropriate assessments relative to the effort's overall intrinsic value to society before they publish, or their reputation as effective communicators will be irreparably tarnished.

The end result being;  Readers won't read your writing at all.      

Robert A. Young, Rome, PA, freelance writer of policing, media, energy and public affairs featuring pieces on GOMARCELLUSSHALE.COM and ROBERT A. YOUNG'S BLOG FOR SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY @ BLOGSPOT.COM and other formats.      

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on February 8, 2013 at 7:27am

Well, with due respect, this a chat room, not the New York Times. I value substance over spelling.

Back to the subject:

I certainly didn’t mean to exclude Talisman. 2011 and I think 2010 it was the #1 Marcellus producer. They appear to be a smaller of the international E&Ps, their Marcellus is significant but not sure what % it is of the overall company. Many are excited to see what results their NE Bradford, NW Susquehanna wells do. Better than Troy area but less than Wyalusing is the guess.

Cabot, COG, must be 90% Marcellus orientated, and they have super acreage every though all dry gas. Range, RRC, must be 80% Marcellus, valuable wet gas in SW PA and a nice dry gas position in Lycoming.

 

Stocks prices are the day’s best guess of what they are worth and over time the truth cam be different, but both with high grade Marcellus lease position and now production are standouts. Exco is spread across the US, and in my opinion they did a poor job selecting land. Southwestern produces 2 Bcf/d in the Fayetteville, and their Marcellus may hit 1/3rd of that. Penn Virginia has nothing successful. Chesapeake has great production but most of its giant acreage is in question – that is their style, lease it all up and see what works.

 

My point is just how distinct different company cultures are and how widely skill levels vary and where the equation leads:  PVA is 95% off its 2008 high, while COG is at new highs, the difference is on the order of 23 fold in just 5 years. Range is at 95% of its 2008 high, CHK 25%.

Over time, it is my belief, that principles chosen, compound like interest, in this case corp valuations.   Stock symbol- END - bought St Mary's C PA leasehold, the stk rose and peaked the day of the announcement, another error on thei way to oblivion, is my guess.

 

Regards

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on February 12, 2013 at 4:40pm

CC, understood. Will be back to you, let me gather some links etc to post. 

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