Drilling Prospects Dim for Mahoning County and Trumbull County, Ohio
Oil and gas drilling prospects dim here, expert says
Published: Fri, April 29, 2016 @ 12:08 a.m.
YOUNGSTOWN
If oil and natural-gas prices increase substantially, new well drilling likely will get a boost in Columbiana County, but the prospects aren’t good in Mahoning and Trumbull counties, an industry expert said.
“Right now, you’re really just looking at Belmont, Harrison, Monroe, and maybe a little bit of Noble County” as the focus of drilling activity, said Mike Chadsey, public-relations director for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association, a 3,000-member industry group.
“As the price shrunk, the geographic play shrunk; and, as price expands, the play will expand,” Chadsey said.
Chadsey was among about 65 people who attended a luncheon last week sponsored by the Youngstown/Warren Regional Chamber at Mill Creek MetroParks’ Fellows Riverside Gardens, which featured Ohio Department of Natural Resources officials as speakers.
If oil and gas prices rise, “There’ll probably be a little activity in Columbiana County, but everything that we have seen in Trumbull and Mahoning [counties] doesn’t look like the rock is there,” Chadsey said.
“This is all about what the rock will do – the Utica and maybe the Marcellus [shale]. It just doesn’t seem workable up here,” he said, citing BP’s decision to withdraw from Trumbull County production activities in 2014.
The production numbers reported by ODNR for 2014 and 2015 support Chadsey’s assertion.
In Columbiana County, natural-gas production soared from 21.3 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 37 billion cubic feet in 2015.
That county’s oil production rose from 172,388 barrels in 2014 to 214,412 barrels last year.
In Mahoning County, natural-gas production was a mere 4 billion cubic feet each year, and oil production slumped from 26,929 barrels in 2014 to 22,378 barrels last year.
Trumbull County’s natural-gas production fell from 1 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 628 million cubic feet in 2015, and oil production there plummeted from 40,668 barrels in 2014 to 10,871 barrels last year.
No new oil and gas wells were drilled last year in Mahoning or Trumbull counties, the trade association reported.
The industry needs an oil price between $75 and $80 per barrel to make expansion of drilling activity attractive, Chadsey said.
“Three dollars or $4 an mcf [1,000 cubic feet of natural gas] would make the Utica just very exciting again,” he added.
Drilling is expensive, with each horizontal well now costing about $2 million to drill, he noted.
Oil now ranges from $40 to $43 a barrel, and Chadsey said natural gas is now as low as $1 or less per mcf due to Ohio’s gas surplus and lack of large users.
The new $890 million Lordstown Energy Center, which will be a natural-gas-fueled power plant in the Lordstown Industrial Park, for which site preparation is now underway, will be a large natural-gas user, Chadsey said.
Chadsey said he expects Ohio’s oil and gas production will continue to increase “marginally” this year “as old wells become hooked up to the pipeline network.”
Ohio’s oil and gas production this year will depend on the markets for those commodities, said Rick Simmers, ODNR’s oil and gas division chief, who was a luncheon speaker here.
“I think we’re going to still see an increase, at least for the first two quarters, but it’ll be at a lower rate than it has been,” Simmers predicted.
“If the commodity prices remain low, then into the third and fourth quarters, I would guess that the production’s going to begin to decline, compared to wherever it peaks, but not dramatically,” he predicted.
Ohio’s oil production doubled from 10.9 million barrels in 2014 to 21.9 million barrels last year.
Its natural-gas production rose 110.6 percent from 452 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 953 billion cubic feet last year.
- See more at: http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/apr/29/expert-well-drilling-prospect...
Views: 3274
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Mike Murphy on
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Now the experts agree that the northern part of Ohio's UTICA is not worth drilling ......everything that we have seen in Trumbull and Mahoning [counties] doesn’t look like the rock is there,” Chadsey said
In Mahoning County, natural-gas production was a mere 4 billion cubic feet each year, and oil production slumped from 26,929 barrels in 2014 to 22,378 barrels last year.
Trumbull County’s natural-gas production fell from 1 billion cubic feet in 2014 to 628 million cubic feet in 2015, and oil production there plummeted from 40,668 barrels in 2014 to 10,871 barrels last year and they don't even talk about Ashtabula county which has 0 Utica wells
No new oil and gas wells were drilled last year in Mahoning or Trumbull counties, the trade association reported.
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Not economical to drill much of anywhere is it right now ?
No wine before it's time.
Wonder what context Mike Chadsey was speaking to ?
'What the rock will do' to paraphrase.
Speaking to Hydraulic Fracturing' only (with water) ?
How about Waterless vs. 'the rock' I wonder ?
How about 'Gravity Return' and / or 'Artificial Lift' (if necessary) vs. 'the rock' I wonder ?
Economics change as do drilling techniques and efficiencies continuously improve you know.
Also have to remember Chadsey - as OOGA's Public Relations Director - is paid by the industry and I'm thinking it's part of his job to keep acquisitions as affordable as he can.
Thinking many times experts are biased.
Just sayin'.
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waterless fracking cost 20 million dollArs it is way to expensive to try in the north ......drilled 2 waterlees fracked wells down south and did not get good enough results to continue using waterless fracks ......so you keep wondering joey they hardly drilled the north before the slowdown in operating rigs and most of the wells up there wont pay for them self in 20 years so that areas has become a bad investment to oil and gas producers your out of the pickle up north
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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It all depends.
And what it depends on is a movin' picture.
lol !
'Mickey' !
J-O
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Permalink Reply by Barry D on
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Joseph,
Different or new techniques may make theses areas economical to produce. But that will come at an additional cost.
Companies will not be willing to make the additional expenditure until the price of oil and gas rises.
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Pending many circumstances companies may not be willing but may find it necessary. Some profit is better than none.
If found necessary the price would rise along with demand.
But acknowledging expense is certainly a very important variable.
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If you look at the ODNR Oil and Gas Well Locator interactive map, you'll see that North of Salem the Horizontal drilling laterals run here and there but form no pattern of North West laterals and South East laterals as the wells in Carroll County form. The shale is no longer uniform which will have an affect on production. Drilling like "Spokes On A Cartwheel" as the original meetings spoke of in 2010 might counter this shale pattern.
For now the areas with uniform predictable shale patterns are the preferred locations to drill.
Things could always change as the drilling technology changes.
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Permalink Reply by Barry D on
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Ron,
Having spoken with some geologists it appears there are several issues with the western and northern Utica.
Because of these issues it will be expensive to develop and produce these areas. A rise in oil price may make it profitable we'll just have to wait and see.
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Barry D and Ron H.,
Thanks for the time spent on behalf of our geography's Oil & Gas development.
Thanks to your geologist contacts for their input as well.
Thinking what we need would be a better trade balance making it attractive to develop the North.
Seems to me that would take expanding sales and depletion of the overstock that we're told exists.
So long as the sales increases are to our vetted allies I'm fine with it.
Just that I would hate to see our own natural resources used against us in conflict. Our E & P marketers and appropriate regulation ought to make sure it never happens.
I say giddyup.
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It will be a long wait in the north the exploratory wells up north have proven it is not economical to continue developing
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GOOD LUCK josephine
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Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on
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Mike Murphy :
It's Joseph-Ohio.
My Gender : Natural born male and proud of it.
That's the way I came in and the way I'll go out.
No one should get confused about those facts (unless they're confused about things like that themselves / probably many other things).
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