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Permalink Reply by RAYMOND bAUMAN on July 16, 2014 at 4:24pm

how to conceal your declines or errors in basic decline curves is something they tech you in basic Reservoir Eng. Wells are always on chokes or producing against back pressure  (line Pressure) these usually take great care to compensate for variations and need inside information.  Second reserves are predicted for only single phases so  you must convert gas to BBL equivalents or oil to gas equivalents.  Two there is no use for production data for the first 1-5 years as all  the above and additional variances in reservoir damage from drilling and hydraulic  fracking make 1-3 years production data not reliable or reprensentative. Production declines in a natural log curve so it is extremely hard to make a reserve estimate and decline curve with just a few  data points.  Lastly any formation varies significantly across and large area so using multiple county production  is full of errors.  The only reson to try to make reserve guesses is for IRS and Wall Street.  Neither of them understand reserve estimates. ( IRS lets you change these yearly  The way you try to estimate oil I place is to use area  of drainage X porosity of formation x perportation of the fluid and gas from downhole samples collecected at or near first production. To gestimate recoverable reserves you must also guess the future prices 10-20 or 30 years out.  Production decline curves that are based upon a few hundred wells scattered across 10 -20 counties will get you in a mess and are not reliable.   Reserve and decline curves are only as good as the data and now we (non producers) don't have it.

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Permalink Reply by Bill Weaver on July 20, 2014 at 10:58am

these numbers are very interesting thanks for the information. I would still be happy with any of these wells on my land. As my dad always said about deep well checks when you receive one treat it like it may be the last on.

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