So where do I invest for the greatest returns?

Seeing as how all these drilling companies, pipeline companies, midstream developement companies, etc. etc. are all getting in on this big gas and oil boom in the Utica/Marcellus...so which companys stock would you buy for the the greatest returns?  

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0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 3:53am

Zero decline for 18 months is illogical and does not happen in nature.  It's not crazy to think that GPOR is playing with choke sizes to create the illusion of no decline.  Again, I'm curious about how people's attitudes around here can be so inconsistent.  Oil and gas companies lie all day, every day...except when they're telling people good news.  Then they're as honest as Andy Griffith on Easter Sunday.  I just don't get it.

Permalink Reply by Booger on June 26, 2013 at 6:02am

gpor doesnt even have a utica well thats been in production for 18 months.....do they?

i remember reading that but i thought that was just a projection.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 6:31am

It was a projection.  And like all of the fluff that's in investor reports its accuracy or inaccuracy is covered by the forward looking statement(s).

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 6:58am

Well we know that companies always follow the SEC's rules, so I feel pretty good about the numbers.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 7:09am

The fact that you're unfamiliar with the Forward Looking Statement is not my problem, Bob.  Nobody's talking about class action lawsuits or whatever other BS you have in store for this conversation.  Frankly anyone who takes one of these companies at their word deserves what happens to their portfolio.  For examples of what happens when hype meets reality see Enron, Chesapeake, Encana, Devon, et al.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 7:49am

Nothing is more enjoyable than watching you take things out of context and make personal attacks when you're out of ideas.

"Oil and gas companies lie all day, every day...except when they're telling people good news." 

You didn't get this one, did you?  Try reading it again and see if you can take another swing at it.

"Well we know that companies always follow the SEC's rules, so I feel pretty good about the numbers"

I forgot that you don't like sarcasm. Next time maybe I'll tailor my responses to what you and your delicate sensibilities require.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 8:16am

Ah, more insults.  I expect nothing less.  And there are companies that lie to investors.  You know who they are because they tend to get caught or fall apart at the seams.  I'm having a hard time understanding how you can even pretend to know anything about the investment world and have no concept of what the Enron scandal was.  That was sort of big news a while back.  

To my original point (which you missed by light years, evidently) there are companies who work their magic to make the numbers look as rosy as possible.  Again, if you don't know that then you're obviously not an investor.  Let your broker put you into a few index funds and just don't pay any attention to it until retirement is near. 

And since you seem to think that nobody ever does anything wrong here's a link to the SEC's website that details some of the major charges levied over the years: http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/fcpa/fcpa-cases.shtml

I'm sorry that facts are getting in the way of your narrative Bob, I really am.  Maybe you can find a few more insults to sling my way.  That ought to make you feel better.

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 3:04pm

" But thanks for confirming yet again that you seriously believe E&P's are lying (i.e. now called rosy projections) to investors everyday and don't always follow the SEC rules. "

I provided a link showing you that companies aren't always honest.  It comes from the SEC.  I don't know what more you want.  And I never said that they lie to investors every day.  I simply am capable of understanding what a Forward Looking Statement is and know what that ultimately means to a company's "projections".  

"Time for you to put up whatever goods you possess to prove that about the current E&P players in the Utica play.  Really want to hear you try to prove any such thing about Gulfport. My bet – this is just another round of all hat no cattle Marcus?"

My comments were not limited to this play.  Yours may be, but mine were a much broader look at the macro.  Again, you clearly are not an investor.

"We are all still waiting for the upload of that infamous well model of yours. Sorry, forget it just an Excel spreadsheet."

Make your own model, then.  I'll supply you with the math and all you'll have to do is plug in the numbers.  It's really quite easy if you have even a casual knowledge of how to use a spreadsheet.  

"PS: Since you didn't know Eclipse had the backing to buy Oxford you're obviously not an oil and gas investor."

I was speculating about two smaller companies and a potential JV.  I'm sorry that I didn't know who Eclipse's financial backers were.  It's a private company and they do not have to disclose anything.  Since you knew this whole time why did you keep that valuable information to yourself?

0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 28, 2013 at 2:25am

"Marcus: As usual, you merely rant and ramble on in generalities in your posts. As somebody once said - Anyone who paints with such a broad brush as you is not to be trusted to be capable of having an honest debate. Despite that advice, I will try one last time just for crap & giggles."

You've never tried an honest debate in your life.  Don't pretend otherwise.

 

"Geewiz your knowledge of forward-looking statements is truly impressive (sarcasm). Frankly, no CEO worth his salary would rely on one being a per se bar to liability and thus a license for him to lie. Despite what you may believe, some courts occasionally believe liability actually remains for knowingly made false statements despite the presence of your beloved forward-looking statement."

So what you're saying is that you don't get what Forward looking Statements are?  Gotcha.

 

"The SEC Rule 10b-5 claims involve market manipulation, insider trading and fraud in connection with public offerings, takeovers and securities transactions. As such, this SEC Linkis more relevant than that link you provided regarding the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act."

I pulled a random link to illustrate that your 'corporations are always honest' opinion was wrong.  Way to stand up for your principles.

 

"If you are truly serious about not believing E&Ps lie to investor’s daily, please post 100 times on GMS: I, Marcus Grayson, believe the E&P’s are telling investors the whole truth and nothing but the truth regarding the projected life, decline curves and Estimated Ultimate Recovery of shale wells."

I don't think they lie everyday and the fact that you keep repeating that nonsense is proof that you're uninterested in a fruitful debate.

 

"As to your infamous excel spreadsheet model, I could care less if you upload it. Heck, you previously refused to uploaded it to GMS on the basis the excel software was in your real name. Don't need to see your math either since it likely consists of only: (1) a 65% decline in year one; (2) 90% decline by the end of year two; and (2) only 7 ½ year well life. Frankly, current science and the Utica geology trump your Arthur Berman Haynesville/Barnett Shale based opinions (for a good laugh read: How Arthur Berman Could Be Very Wrong….)"

Turns out you do need to see the math because your numbers are likely very wrong.  But that's never stopped you before.

 

"You really must not be an oil/gas investor since it appears you did not know what all the following entities have in common: Eclipse, Fossil Creek, Protege, Halcon, Enervest/EV Energy Partners, Marquette, Caiman, Grenadier and Petro Hawk.

You can find a small hint at the answer at these links: EnCap Investments & Upstream Current& Upstream Realized & Midstream Current &Midstream Realized & Eclipse & Statoil &Protege & Fossil Creek"

I fully admit that my focus is company-to-company and I don't come anywhere close to caring what fund is financing what project.

 

"Feel free now to commence with your childless attempts at insults like you always do when anyone calls you on your never ending and unsupported generalities about the shale play in Ohio."

Need I remind you that you are the one who has a laundry list of insults in this discussion?  Or is that, once again, a fact that you'll simply ignore for your own convenience?

 

"PS: Are you still telling landowners they should take $2000/acre for ½ of their interest before this thing implodes? tee hee!"

People asked a question and based on the information at the time I gave an opinion.  For someone who bloviates nonstop I'd think you'd appreciate the value of people's opinions.  But I guess you're one of those people who just knows more than everyone else and thus are entitled to an opinion while others must grovel at your feet.  

 

As a Bonus Question - Who said all of the following: (1) If I can't play the company's stock there isn't any real fun in it for me. (2) I'm a trader. . . . My loyalty isn't to a company but my bank account. (3) I always laugh at the sense of entitlement that landowners seem to have. Last year they gladly took $10/acre and a shot at free gas. Now they expect huge dollars on pure speculation. (4) If you're a landowner get as much as you can before this thing falls apart (5)Upfront cash is nice but a quality lease is more important. (6) I indicated that a $15,000 spud fee ON TOP OF A LEASE BONUS was a fair rate. (7) Fossil Creek is contracted with Gulfport. They take leases and make deals with other brokers or operators and keep the excess. So if they are given say $2,500/acre to work with and sign people for $1,500/acre they keep the remaining $1,000/acre. They are legit. I can get you contact info if you want. (8) Anadarko is leasing heavily in Monroe. (9) I'm long [Halcon] @5.32…. (10) Devon owns the western end of this play because they were the first ones to see it's true value. (11) I'm becoming more and more convinced that you're posting from the rec room at your sanitarium. (12) There are hundreds of private equity firms who are looking to buy into deals like this across the country. It could be absolutely anyone

Um, none of those statements are wrong.  Yeah, you nailed me there Bob.  

Permalink Reply by brat on July 8, 2013 at 5:10am

Hey Bob, Who does this Nate Levengood work for?  Thanks

Permalink Reply by Al Anthony on June 25, 2013 at 10:10pm
Picking winners in this environment is a loser's game. Go for a balanced portfolio of index funds suitable to your risk tolerance. You can get rich slowly. There are no get rich quick schemes. http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/index.php
0i7okn54zwbdoPermalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on June 26, 2013 at 1:31am

That would have been good advice two years ago. 

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