THE OUTGOING gov. paterson VETOED THE TEMPORARY MORATORIOUM

 i  ALSO HAVE SML 26 ACRES IN SIDNEY VILLAGE , DELAWARE COUNTY N.Y. , HELD MY BREATH FOR LONG ENOUGH ,THE ANTI DRILLING WERE SUCH ..., BUT THE VETO IS HERE , AND THE drbc also revealed the new regulation draft for public comments in 90 days, to drill the delaware river basin acreage, good news , now the doors are wide open for fat elephants  like range or cheasapeak or xto .. to bid on the thickset of marcellus in delaware county and rest of southern tier

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Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 15, 2010 at 10:14am

Now that Patterson has mandated another public comment period in June, that will generate thousands of responses the DEC will then have to consider - so there won't be any permits issued until 2012 at the earliest, when the EPA weighs in with its report. And then there will be the lawsuits. And then the DEC says it'll only issue as many permits as they can safely monitor with its current staff...

Meanwhile there will still be a domestic gas surplus with prices considerably below the break-even point of $7-8, and even if that changes in another 5 or 10 years, and your "elephants" start lumbering your way, it won't be to lease your 26 acres, but your larger neighbors, that is, IF you have larger ones. So you'll have to hope you get force-pooled into your neighbor's unit, but then you won't get any sign-up bonus... 

So get ready to keep holding your breath for a VERY long time.

Permalink Reply by wadea william saad on December 15, 2010 at 11:09am

PESSIMISTEC IS NOT THE WAY TO GO , REALITY IS MONEY TALKS , NEW YORK POLITICAL ESTABLISHMENT HUNGER FOR MONEY IS FAR MORE POWERFULL THAN MINE OR YOURS, AFTER PACIFYING THE GREEN HEADS , THEY WILL DRILL , , BREAK EVEN GAS PRICE IS AROUND THE CORNER, UNLES GREEN HEADS ARE PRO COAL CONSUMPTION, TRY COAL IN YOUR ENGINE , iM MUCH HAPPIER NOW THAN A FEW WEEKS AGO, 2012 IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY BY THE WAY, NOT HOLDING MY BREATH ANY LONGER .

Permalink Reply by Interested Party on December 15, 2010 at 11:27am

Be as "optimistic" as you want...but there are too many political "what if's" in NY for high risk/high cost business.  I agree with Rosen: get ready to hold your breath (wait) for a VERY long time-maybe 20-30 years from now?

Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 15, 2010 at 12:57pm

TRY COAL IN YOUR ENGINE? You mean millions of cars/trucks are going to suddenly be converted to run on natural gas in another few years? With natural gas pumps being added to gas stations all over the country? And that's going to make drilling in NY a sure thing?

BREAK EVEN GAS PRICE IS AROUND THE CORNER?

Around the corner? The price is now near its 5-year low, and PA is just ramping up production, expecting to issue another few thousand new permits next year, mostly in proven core areas. In NY there are NO proven areas at all. The O&G companies will be investing from scratch and taking an enormous risk. And around Sydney, almost none of the necessary pipeline infrastructure exists. 

 

So if and when the DEC regs ever go into effect and the gas companies are willing to absorb ALL the additional costs (and the inevitable severance taxes), it'll be your kids or grandkids who will see it, if ever. 


Don't be a pessimist. Or even a realist. Dream on.

Permalink Reply by wadea william saad on December 15, 2010 at 1:33pm

I  dont know you said permits from DEC in 2012 , then you said dream on ,  I  say likely the door is open for gas drilling companies wider than before, you choose to not to see that now, after the veto and what  drbc drafted,we are waiting on n.y.dec by june 1st. 2011debate is over regulations are set to drill ,carefully of course, and it is not 2012 yet , and gradually more and more engines are turning to natural gas, you sound to be against it , any way ,its also personal thing, for drilling or against drilling, I  will not change your heart , but  I  hope you turn down the heating system and boycut gas consumption .

Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 15, 2010 at 2:32pm

Just because I said it's possible the DEC may issue some permits in 2012 doesn't mean you'll ever see a dime.

It doesn't matter what my position on drilling is, it's a question of economic realities. Sorry, but from a strictly business perspective, it looks like a crap shoot to an increasing number of people, not just me, and the chances of you rolling snake-eyes in Sydney are a hell of a lot bigger than ever coming up seven/eleven.

The odds are heavily against you, at least in the short term (20 years or so), for a dozen or more reasons, only a few of which I've named.

Not least of which is the new public comment period that will begin in June. That means the Gov. has put the DEC regs under intense public scrutiny, so the regs are likely to be MUCH tougher and more costly for the G/Cs. 

 

What you don't seem to appreciate is that it's ultimately a business decision for these guys. They're not stupid. Some of them have already lost their shirts in PA by investing too quickly in the wrong place. They are going to go SSSSSSSSSLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOWWWWW. And lots of them are already having second thoughts about upstate NY, and especially your area. And so are your neighbors. I get email notices every week of substantial parcels in the Sydney area up for sale. You think you know something they don't? Good Luck.

Permalink Reply by Anthony(tony) Tavelli on December 16, 2010 at 4:30pm

  Bob you say things that make sense. I f there is money to be made they will drill,if not they won't. As far as expensive regs, that cost I beleive will go to the property owners. We will receive lower sign on bonuses and royalties. What or when? Political posturing,yes. NY city is our problem. Alot of money and political power. Really it's money vs money, they're investments (tourism,wind power,ect) don't blend well with industry(trucks,bulldozers,N.gas power).
   I live in Tompkins Co., 330 acres. We have been aproached by a group representing Exon Moble. They are interested in central NY,all of it!  Point,there is movement. Gas companies are  leaseing maybe they are just looking for an early bargin.

Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 16, 2010 at 5:27pm

Dear Anthony,

"They are interested in central NY,all of it!"

Well, Tompkins County for sure. Towns like Caroline were among the very first. My understanding is that something like 75-80% of Caroline is already leased, and has been for quite some time, and that a lot of folks there may have jumped the gun a little too soon and got clipped. If anything, I'm a bit puzzled by your saying that you've been "approached" by Exxon for your 330 acres. With that much land, I'd have thought they'd have already come after you a while back. Or are you just holding out for a better offer?

Permalink Reply by Anthony(tony) Tavelli on December 17, 2010 at 5:23pm

 Hi Bob,  Yes,we are leased till Dec, 2011. We (Tompkins Co. Landowner Coalition) have been aproached by a advocate group,Pine Energy. They are also talking to a farmer from Groton,who is trying to collect the 10,000 acreas min. they request to do a deal. They say they can close a deal by March. I myself loosely hold close to 3000 acres,neighbors waiting for the right offer. We're not in a hurry. Got a year to go,could top lease at this point.  I have a few connections with the O&G industry. People who work in it. Best one is a long time family freind. Bill works for Tailisman USA. He asesses you're loss of income from their use of you're land and writes you a check,as far as farms go anyway. Right now they pay $500 per acre per year. That's the simple version.
   Another contact says his boss states they are absolutely going to N Y. They will start with the state land. Now if that is true, speculate on what the "state" doing. Another contact was bitching at the atourney general about "Force Majour". Atourney General stated"We are negociating with them" Got more but out of time. 

Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 17, 2010 at 7:55pm

Dear Anthony,

That's quite a mouthful of information.

When you say Pine Energy is an "advocate group", you mean like those guys who package deals and then pitch them to G/Cs at places like NAPE in Houston?

And when you say your guy from Talisman (Fortuna?) evaluates compensation for loss of farm income, you mean that's *in addition* to a sign-on bonus? Or is this some way to allow them to hold leases without actually having to drill?

And when you say bitching about Force Majeure, I assume you mean because of the continuing delay in the issuance of the DEC regs?

And as for the top lease option, wouldn't it make more sense to wait?

Sorry for all the questions, but you have a lot to say and I just want to make sure I'm understanding you right.

Permalink Reply by Anthony(tony) Tavelli on December 18, 2010 at 11:40am

  Actually, Bob you like to shoot down anything pro-gas. Just confirming that you are anti-gas and A-typical.

Permalink Reply by Bob Rosen on December 18, 2010 at 4:02pm

There are always two sides to everything. Often there are more than two.

Where I come from (eastern Delaware County), gas drilling doesn't make real economic sense. The dairy farms are almost all gone and everything is already very subdivided (under 40 acres per parcel on avg.), about 40% is owned by downstaters who want the peace and quiet of a country home. I live here year-round now and all but one of my neighbors are too small to see much benefit from signing and don't have any real incentive to take on the risks. And the few large landowners left won't add up to more than 2 or 3 units in my town, hardly enough for a G/C to justify the big investment. No pipeline infrastructure. And we're at the end of the line, right above the NYC watershed boundary.

But in your area, it seems to make much more sense as a business deal. At least I gather that's what you are saying. I'm just trying to understand it from your perspective. Do we have to be on the same side to understand one another and exchange information?

Good Luck in Tompkins County.

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