The Shale Effect on the Election

Before the election, there was some discussion of Obama benefiting from the boost that shale exploration gave PA and OH. I think there is some evidence, at least on a micro level, that this wasn't the case. 

 

In Ohio

Just because it is interesting, compare the 2008 Ohio Results and the 2012 Ohio Result (you will have to click on the state)

I count 6 counties that flipped into the Republican column: Belmont, Noble, Athens, Jefferson, Monroe, Tuscarawas.

 

In Pennsylvania

Though no counties flipped, there is some evidence that there may have been a "shale effect." In several counties where shale drilling is strong, Romney either had a considerably better turnout and/or Obama had depressed turnout. Consider the following.

 

Butler County. In 2008, McCain won the county with 52,294 to 29,882 votes. This year, Romney won the county with 59,416 to 28,385; accounting for a 8,619 pro-Republican vote swing.

 

Washington County saw a larger turnout for Romney and a lower turnout for Obama as well.

2008 - 48,753 (Romney) - 44,286 (Obama)

2012 - 50,455 (Romney) - 38,503 (Obama). This accounts for a 7,405 pro-Republican vote swing.

And, it doesn't end there. Several counties in Northeast PA saw similar swings.

 

So, what role did oil and gas development play in the election? And, does this give us any indication of the the future political direction of the areas that benefit from shale exploration?

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Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 9, 2012 at 5:21am

Obviously those races were affected, MO and Indiana. The only problem with your main point is that Obama received 8 million fewer votes than he did in 2008. What were the reasons why 8 million former voters were disenfranchised by him? Between both parties, 11 million fewer people turned out in 2012 than 2008.

Permalink Reply by Dan on November 9, 2012 at 6:03am

Without debating wether Obamas promises in 2008 were good or bad, he didn't stick to his promises for many that voted for him in 2008.  We will probably never know all the reasons for the way the chips fell.  Many I have talked to that voted for Obama are not at all happy about voting for him.  I personally think Obama won because of Romney, not because of confidence in Obama.  Do you really think the Reps. were happy with Romney and the Dems. with Obama?  We need better canidates for both parties or both will continue to widen the divides.  Hopefully we avoid the fiscal cliff and some degree of bi-partisan accomplishments happen to give new hope for all of us.

Permalink Reply by Bob Rock on November 8, 2012 at 3:38pm
Apathy started a long time ago and I believe there is no end to it now,only worse. people that work will find there % of taxes going up. I here in France that some pay 75% wages to taxes. God bless this country.
Permalink Reply by craig on November 8, 2012 at 7:32pm

A friend in Canada pays over 60% of his gross income to taxes.

Permalink Reply by JRW on November 8, 2012 at 5:54pm

Obama has put very tight limits on emissons for coal burning plants. That in turn has many of them convert to nat. gas or shut down.

Point is his polices will help nat. gas not hurt it.

Permalink Reply by Ed on November 8, 2012 at 10:22pm

It has less to do with government policies and more to do with economics.  Right now gas is cheap so electricity is swinging toward gas.  That will shift again in the future as it always has.  Over the long term coal always has been and always will be cheaper to burn than gas and will make a resurgence once again...soon I expect.  As technology improves, coal becomes cleaner and cleaner.  Cleaning up coal creates as many jobs as leaving it dirty and our entire country is healthier for it. Obama's "war on coal" is only a political pitch.  Nothing more.  Any administration would eventually be forced to clean it up. Coal for electricity will never go away. Coal and jobs have always gone up & down for past 100 years.

   

Permalink Reply by Lance Nimmo on November 9, 2012 at 3:17pm

This statement is not based in reality. I'll assume you were just trying to be funny right???? Osama is the first president in HISTORY to publicly declare that he will bankrupt a coal fired plant. The EPA's new regulations on coal are it's death penalty. The economics are fine for coal. Coal plants are NOT shutting down because of cheap gas. They are closing because of the EPA. 

Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 9, 2012 at 5:23am

When does it become a "war on gas?" The cap n trade program will not discriminate. A carbon tax will not discriminate.

Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 9, 2012 at 5:16am

That's a good point, but the counter to that is that 3 million fewer voted for Romney than McCain overall, but these counties buck than result.

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 9, 2012 at 5:41am

as a side note, 45 u.s. copanies started layoffs in last 48 hours.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 9:07am

The election is over - results are in.

Make the best of what we have to work with.

I'm thinking it's time - actually way past time - to stop belly aching over spilled milk and begin developing and opening up our economy to our domestic natural gas and oil benefits.

It's time to focus.

Conversion to natural gas across the board.

Don't sell it to the overseas states - develop it and domesic markets here at home - stateside.

No time to waste.

This will put people back to work and render our domestic economy the strongest it's been in decades.

I've read this to be a once in a generation opportunity.

Let's get to it.

The sooner the better.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 10:16am

If you look up my profile you'll see that I'm a Landowner who wants to get the ball rolling north of 6 in Ashtabula county.

Ho Ho Ho - No.

Like I wrote earlier - let's get off the election and DEVELOP.

By the way - my wife and I own our land and mineral rights as it is at present - we're unleased and title clear.

Also, our preference would be to Lease to an entity that would develop our Gas & Oil for Domestic use.

What doomed rock do you live under ? 

Hope we're not neighbors.

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