The Shale Effect on the Election

Before the election, there was some discussion of Obama benefiting from the boost that shale exploration gave PA and OH. I think there is some evidence, at least on a micro level, that this wasn't the case. 

 

In Ohio

Just because it is interesting, compare the 2008 Ohio Results and the 2012 Ohio Result (you will have to click on the state)

I count 6 counties that flipped into the Republican column: Belmont, Noble, Athens, Jefferson, Monroe, Tuscarawas.

 

In Pennsylvania

Though no counties flipped, there is some evidence that there may have been a "shale effect." In several counties where shale drilling is strong, Romney either had a considerably better turnout and/or Obama had depressed turnout. Consider the following.

 

Butler County. In 2008, McCain won the county with 52,294 to 29,882 votes. This year, Romney won the county with 59,416 to 28,385; accounting for a 8,619 pro-Republican vote swing.

 

Washington County saw a larger turnout for Romney and a lower turnout for Obama as well.

2008 - 48,753 (Romney) - 44,286 (Obama)

2012 - 50,455 (Romney) - 38,503 (Obama). This accounts for a 7,405 pro-Republican vote swing.

And, it doesn't end there. Several counties in Northeast PA saw similar swings.

 

So, what role did oil and gas development play in the election? And, does this give us any indication of the the future political direction of the areas that benefit from shale exploration?

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 11:18am

I'll remain in what you would call 'denial' thank you just the same.

Our preference is one thing - but, hard money is something else.

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 9, 2012 at 11:46am

the interior dept proposal today to remove 16 million acres in the west from fracking.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 1:07pm

Why would that not translate into a more lucrative / profitable market place for private landowners / lessors ?

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 9, 2012 at 1:12pm

sigh.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 1:31pm

Interpreting that sigh as your interpretation that the result will not be a more lucrative / profitable market place for private landowners / lessors.

Hoping you're not correct. 

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 9, 2012 at 1:41pm

this country needs all available energy sources. the administration is cutting them off. he lied to america. he also revived the united nations small arms treaty talks,designed to break remington,smith and wesson etc in this country. we are in trouble.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 2:20pm

Hoping not Gary.

We still have our House and Senate.

If they don't like it, it won't become law.

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on November 9, 2012 at 2:23pm

You guys paint a bleak picture.

Hoping you're wrong.

 

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