Utica Shale Penn State Webinar 6/14

Utica people,

The ITG Penn State Webinar from June 2014 is available here .

This is the webinar that member Greg B highly recommended in his blog here .

Phil

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Permalink Reply by Todd on July 14, 2014 at 2:40pm

Phil,

You're right...

As long as the hydrocarbons are there, they'll be trying to figure out ways to get to them.

Best Regards,

Todd

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 14, 2014 at 3:19pm
Todd,

Apologies for butting in / interjecting my comment within your conversation with Phil, but I'd like to voice an opinion.

I think the developers could get at any reservoir of hydrocarbons that they would like to. I think it's more market tactics that keep them from exploiting the resources myself. I think recovery is often (and now being) stalled to maximize returns later.

Just my read of what's going on.

Thanks for your effort posting info., I appreciate it.
Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on July 14, 2014 at 5:52pm

I am going to let people in on a deep dark secret of the Oil & Gas Industry.

 

The Earth Scientists (Geologists & Geophysicists) are optimistic by nature; if they were pessimists (and looked at things in that light) there would be no prospects and no wells would be drilled (and nothing found).

 

The Petroleum Engineers (who calculate reserves, once something has been found) tend to be very cautious (I will not say pessimists, as they are simply very cautious).

Why do I categorize them as cautious? Well Engineers are cautious by natural temperament and training … that is why bridges do not fail and airplanes rarely fall out of the sky … engineers build into their calculations a reserve for error.

If a Petroleum Engineer calculates an ultimate recovery of X … and the ultimate recovery is 2X … well everyone is eventually happy …. more money was made than was initially anticipated (I cannot tell you how many times this has happened). If a Petroleum Engineer calculates an ultimate recovery of X … and the ultimate recovery is 1/2X …well I hope he does well with his new employer.

 

Optimists tend to become Earth Scientists.

Conservative individuals tend to become Petroleum Engineers.

That is just the way things tend to be … and, IMHO, that is the best way for things to be.

Pleasant surprises (resulting from conservative assessments) lead to happy outcomes; unpleasant  surprises tend to lead to a waste of resources and bankruptcies.

 

This dichotomy has worked out very well in the past; and will work out well if practiced in the future; if one is cautious in their expectations …. It is likely that the only surprises will be pleasant ones.

If you think that EUR's are too low; they probably are ... better to be too low than too high .... if you are betting YOUR money on the outcome.

All IMHO,

                    JS

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 15, 2014 at 4:55am
Not in disagreement.

But, within their own circle / sphere I have found most all Professionals Conservative.

However, what's 'Conservative' in one circle / sphere may be viewed as 'Liberal' in another.

That's why I've always had difficulty with the terms 'Conservative' vs. 'Liberal' in any circle / sphere.
Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on July 15, 2014 at 5:59am

My use of the term 'conservative' was not meant to have any political connotation; the dictionary definition of conservative I was alluding to is: "cautiously moderate: a conservative estimate".

And I would never describe an Earth Scientist as "liberal".

Earth Scientists look at data and make interpretations; using all available information. But, typically it is an interpretation ... for many situations, there is no single unique answer; there can (and often are) multiple possibilities. It is the Earth Scientist's job to decide upon which interpretation best fits the data and is the most logical answer (Occam's razor comes into play).

I will revise my comment that Earth Scientists are (by nature) optimists; I will change that to cautiously optimistic .... if they were not optimistic about their ability to find O&G, the task of eventually solving the problem of finding O&G would be much more difficult. 

Engineers like to work with hard data.

They like three decimal place accuracy.

Engineers seek out THE answer; tend not to be comfortable with 'interpretations' which by their very nature carry an element of uncertainty.

There tend to be differences in personality between Earth Scientists and Engineers.

I always considered an important part of an Earth Scientist's job to be to gain the trust of the Engineers that he or she is working with.

When it comes to Earth Scientists and Engineers; I have equal respect for all qualified professionals; each discipline brings their unique skills to the road to success.

All IMHO,

                  JS

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 15, 2014 at 6:38am

Jack,

I likewise did not speak exclusively to the use of the words 'Liberal' and 'Conservative' in the political context but neither did I exclude them.

Have not had opportunity other than on these pages to interact with any Earth Scientists / Geologists (that I definitely know of by specific definition in discussion) but I do hold them in high regard and have respect for any such  Professional (qualified by education and / or by practical experience).

However, I've had much experience in association with Engineers (qualified by education and / or by practical experience) whom I also and equally hold in high regard and have respect for.

Permalink Reply by searcherone on July 14, 2014 at 3:21pm

Very interesting Range Resources presentation.  RRC obviously thinks they have the "core" acreage.   Would all of the recent high pressure Utica wells in Ohio and WV near the Ohio River make some of those slides look totally different if that data was factored in?   

Permalink Reply by Todd on July 14, 2014 at 3:34pm

Joseph-Ohio,

BINGO.  Some areas are on development delay due to what you're saying.  I call it development poker akin to the lease poker that the companies played with the landowners upon signing:

http://www.ohiogo.com/opinion/2014/07/07/playing-lease-poker

Thanks for getting in on the discussion.

searcherone,

Yes - the IP's would be much higher on their IP map to the south. 

Todd

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 14, 2014 at 4:20pm

Thanks again Todd.

J-O

Permalink Reply by Dexter Green on July 15, 2014 at 6:08am

"RRC obviously thinks they have the "core" acreage."

They're pretty great promoters, that's for sure.

Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on July 15, 2014 at 6:20am

Dexter,

You imply that they might be fibbing??

I'm shocked!!! 

Phil

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on July 15, 2014 at 6:45am

Personally, I didn't get that from Dexter's reply; but, now that you mention it, I can't rule that take out, like so many other things going on these days about it all.

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