Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on January 4, 2013 at 11:54am

There is a County Group for Sullivan County:

http://gomarcellusshale.com/group/sullivancountypa

You might wish to join and follow the posts for this group.

 

Is your acreage currently leased?

Am I correct to assume that you (and your Brother) own both the surface and sub-surface?

What Township is your property located in?

 

I have no special knowledge of the prospectivity of central Sullivan County, other than that it is in a very attractive area for Marcellus Shale Gas.

You might wish to Google "Marcellus Shale Map" or "Marcellus ShaleThickness Map". You will be able to note that Sullivan County is considered to be in the Marcellus Gas Fairway.

I looked at a Thermal Maturity Map for the Utica, and Sullivan County is considered "Over-Mature" for the Utica (thus unlikely prospective at the Utica level).

Natural Gas prices are currently low due to an over-supply and due to a lack of sufficient infra-structure.

The enormous success of the Marcellus Shale have resulted in "growing pains".

I believe that these problems will be solved and that prices will improve in the next year or two.

As Natural Gas prices improve, so too will the value of your property.

 

My personal opinion is that selling now would get you pennies (or nickels) on the dollar compared to its ultimate value (when drilled, developed and producing).

My personal opinion is to suggest that you research and learn and (if, as you say, you do not need the money) hold on while you acquire more specific knowledge.

If your Brother wants/needs to sell, perhaps you could divide the property; with you retaining half the acreage.

 

We are at the early stages of the Marcellus story. I believe that it might take 40 years to fully develop.

However Sullivan County's position in the Marcellus Fairway and its proximity to pipelines leading  to the New York City market should result in it being developed earlier (rather than later).

 

The PA State DEP website allows you to learn about what is happening in your specific County.

This website is a bit difficult to navigate; but there is information to be gleaned there.

Penn State University Extension has a lot of Landowner friendly information on their website.

 

As far as exactly what to expect, the best way to judge the ultimate value is to locate production reports for nearby horizontal Marcellus wells ... with patience some of this can be found on the PA-DEP website.

 

As you learn more, perhaps you can ask some more specific questions.

Often it is easier to respond to a specific question, rather than a general one.

 

Good luck.

 

All IMHO,

                     JS

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Permalink Reply by stormangasman on January 4, 2013 at 4:04pm

Jack -- thanks for your reply-our property is in Elkland Twp and yes we own all rights.We are tied up  in an old  lease that puts us in a unit  w/1280 acres in it and one well in it now.

We do not live on the property, rather we use it for hunting and recreation,but we are both getting older and no longer use it as much as we once did.I can't get to live discussion and local meetings , because  we live out the area .

 

I have followed the discussions on the sullivan co. site. and studied the royalties charts.There are so many  dif opinions on how fast the production  declines--then there is the problem clause in the lease "royalities after expenses are deducted" I'm wondering  if there will be anything left--.I guess I am fishing for  a figure that someone might think the property would be worth to sell now w/ gas rights. I have heard many dif figures per acre.

I have thought of dividing the property ,but would rather not and don't have the money to buy him out.

all your sugguestings are very good and I will try to follow up on them   Thanks again

 

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Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on January 4, 2013 at 6:11pm

You are trying to solve four equations with five unknowns; no unique solution, just a family of potential solutions.

I believe that matters will likely clear up in the next two years.

The solution may not become obvious, but the choices will be better.

As someone who likes to be in control of the situation, I find such situations frustrating.

But another way of looking at it is that the worst case is still likely pretty good.

 

Best wishes in this complicated New Year,

                                                                              JS

 

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Permalink Reply by New Field Farm on March 16, 2013 at 1:27pm

Check my post titled "Effects of Future Global Trends on Shale Gas – When is the sweet spot?" on future trends, I just now put it up and talk a bit about your subject.

NFF

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Permalink Reply by stormangasman on March 17, 2013 at 1:16am

Thanks ,but where do I find this post?

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Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on March 17, 2013 at 6:16am

Stormangasman, check here:

http://gomarcellusshale.com/forum/topics/effects-of-future-global-t...

 

 

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Permalink Reply by stormangasman on March 18, 2013 at 1:57am

Thanks Jack this very interesting both New Field Farmer and your comments. I think you have summed up the what a lot of landowners are feeling at this point in time. I have though, for a while now, that the gas people are trying to cool things now in order to release again at much lower prices.I have talked to many landowners that have a lease and no offers to release for one reason or another.They made sure people heard about the large checks people got in bradford co. early on, in order to get leases signed in Sullivan co. where they there was a sweet spot as well as other co's

I am bitter because I fell for the first offer and an old lease 8 years ago then was locked in a pool of 1280 acres 2 weeks before lease ran out. The gas lines are close now and I'm 8 years older but still have no idea whether we will every receive a royalty check or not-The offers for buying 1/2 your gas rights have also stopped,makes you wonder,I hope I can hang!!!   Thanks again and i will continue to view this site.

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