Vast changes underway, but what seems obvious, isn’t always on. Some investigation finds approx. 10 power  generation plants proposed for PA. Elec is traded like any commodity, but limited by transmission capacity and distance.   Lots of gas to generate more wattage sounds good but it has to be economic and though merchants are behind much of this, there still seems to be some NERC involvement.

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Investors need some assurance of potential market, margin range and edge before committing.

I see PPL’s 1^st QTR dump was down high single digits, demand growth in the NE isn’t that great. Many older coal ops are retiring, especially in ‘15 but if you look closely, nearly in all cases, these have been operating at low % of capacity for a long time – ie 25-50%.

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So if merchantse can go ahead, who is going to lose mkt share, if they have edge? NG as fuel is cheaper, even at 5$, but older plants are long ago paid for. Of the 10 proposed, there is some thought maybe only 3-4 might get funded.Biased here but we think the 2 NE PA  proposals have better odds.

H. Melissa