Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on April 30, 2012 at 6:46am

Your numbers are not accurate because there is not enough real production here to base them on.  I have a model that shows a 15% LOR on a 320 acre unit having a net present value at just north of $15,000/acre.  That assumes an estimate of production, decline and a rash of other data that is little more than a guess.  Is my model accurate?  No way to know yet.  So maybe the prices being offered today are bad, maybe production is weak and those numbers are good.  You have no way of knowing.

Permalink Reply by Shocked at SHELL on April 29, 2012 at 3:28pm

money for minerals .com, got me three different bids. Hmmmm its got me thinking!!!

Permalink Reply by HMMMM! on April 29, 2012 at 4:28pm

Please understand, the O & G companies did not pay $5,000 per acre not to drill.....Why do you think so many companies or investors would offer you money for your royalties....Marcus Grayson's saying you probably won't get drilled anyway is a load of crap....He is trying to mislead you...The people trying to buy royalties know this business and are counting on people who don't know this business like Marcus or people who are intentionally misleading you, which again Marcus could be guilty of. They are willing to pay more for the royalties than you were paid for the lease, they know it will be drilled..... When people went through here five years ago signing leases for less than $100 per acre, the people who signed those leases want to kick themselves in the ass, they lost the big signing money, but they at least have the royalties.! Five years from now when there is a well every 2 square miles paying out royalties beyond what you ever heard they would be paying....Don't be the one wanting to kick yourself in the ass.....Oh and by the way these investors that are trying to buy royalties are headed of by out of towners who have brought in locals to try and make you feel more comfortable...That's why you have people on here who went from"don't give up anything to the o & g companies" to "well you might wanna sell those royalties, you probably won't get drilled anyway"...If you have already leased, HOLD ON TO THE MOST VALUABLE PART OF THE LEASE, THE ONLY THING YOU STILL OWN.....YOUR ROYALTIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Permalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on April 30, 2012 at 6:58am

I never said people won't get drilled, I said a majority won't be drilled in the near future.  If you look at the Haynesville Shale you'd see that 1,500,000 acres were leased.  That covered 65 townships.  Of that massive promised area only ~110,000 acres covering 5 townships has proven to be economically viable thus far.  These shale ventures tend to contract to a few nice, core areas.  That doesn't mean that Belmont county won't be part of a sweet spot.  I actually think that Belmont will be a great gas producer, albeit once prices go up and return to decent levels.  Haynesville EUR is somewhere between 3-9 TCF, depending on the extent of drilling.  It was originally advertised as 250 TCF EUR.  That's not just wrong, that's catastrophically wrong.  

So hold on to your royalties if you want.  It's your royalty and nobody is making you sell it.  But for a bunch of regular people with no experience in the industry to come on here and shout at people and tell them they're idiots for making a decision that is personal and individual is the sort of bullying, self-agrandizing stupidity that leads folks down the wrong road.

Permalink Reply by HMMMM! on April 30, 2012 at 8:00am

Telling people to sign away a potential lifetime of royalties is wrong ....Mr. Fox told you in six months of royalty checks they have been paid 3/4 of what was offered to them by these investors! I would rather be stupid and a bully than a con artist.....Did you sell your royalties or are you buying them......All your models and Haynesville shale numbers mean NOTHING after Mr. Fox told you what is actually going on here in OHIO. One thing i agree with you on is, everyone has to make thier own decision and we can leave it at that!!!

Permalink Reply by Clinton44 on April 30, 2012 at 8:34am

I am in PA but I still have same opinion think long and hard before selling your royalties especially in Ohio since the utica is the next big play!!

Permalink Reply by Clinton44 on April 30, 2012 at 9:39am

Sorry maybe should not have butted into another states forum without first indicating that I was from PA.

I just saw the post and figured I would give my opinion as to what the "speculators" were doing when they were in our area when the marcellus was in the position the Utica is now!!

Permalink Reply by take the money and run on April 30, 2012 at 10:49am

Eric, why should you be sorry. You gave really good information. Thanks again.

Permalink Reply by HMMMM! on April 30, 2012 at 11:21am

Even more reason to hold on to your royalties....NO ONE can argue the fact UTICA will be more productive than Marcellus....making Utica royalties more valuable.....Don't forget after Utica has been used up, then they will come up to the Marcellus which lies right above the Utica in most parts of OHIO...That's right more royalties.....so if you sell them now you and your family will get a big fat ZERO down the road. Mine and most people's arguments on here are keep your royalties for you and your family and make money for years.....A select few argue...sell those royalties now and let someone else make money off your property for the duration of the gas age.......Who cares about the local people more....the ones saying keep it for your family or the ones saying no give it away HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Permalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on April 30, 2012 at 1:28pm

"NO ONE can argue the fact UTICA will be more productive than Marcellus"

Of course I can argue that.  There's very little production in the Utica/Point Pleasant so your assumption is based on your hopes and dreams, not numbers.  In three or four years we'll have better data.

Permalink Reply by Shocked at SHELL on April 30, 2012 at 3:45pm

Well put. The thing about investors is that they know how to lease!!! Hmmm thinks cause there is land it can be drilled. Whats not taken into account is the fact that there is very little drillable units. Facts are there is 50 different companys competing for units there is HBP so scattered that a unit over 320ac is unusually large. Than there is the fact that Consol/Hess owns 100,000 acres you dont see on lease paper. Now there is the fact that Belmont wells are producing dry gas. "Than there is the fact that" We dont have the infrastructure. "Than there is the fact" there is a dozen other county's that has wetter gas. Also company's have invested billions in the Marcellus and will never walk away from there investment. My problem is the fact the people come on here and give advise that have no business open there mouths. If your gonna give advise atleast educate yourself, because the developement of the Utica is no sooner than 10yr if your lucky. The hype of the Utica is all smoke and mirror and will fall as fast as CHK is!!!!! The only direction prices are going is down. Lady's and gentalmen the Utica has pecked my advise is hedge your bets, it will be a long ride. You can thank Chesapeake for that. So "Hmmmmm" I say Hmmmm Da the haha!!!!! Dont quit your day job cause blogging aint your gig.

Permalink Reply by HMMMM! on April 30, 2012 at 4:23pm

"Of course I can argue that.  There's very little production in the Utica/Point Pleasant so your assumption is based on your hopes and dreams, not numbers."

See i can copy and paste too....Here is the biggest number of all....... highest price paid per acre in Marcellus play $3,200....Current price being paid in Utica play $5,000 to $5,900 per acre almost double....seems all the oil & gas companies know Utica will be better, but again you know more than the companies who are investing billions.....for a man who talks about models and maps, funny your not bringing up the fact that Utica is almost 3 times thicker formation than Marcellus

What is the Utica Shale?

The Utica Shale is a rock unit located a few thousand feet  below the Marcellus Shale. It also has the  potential to become an enormous natural gas resource.  The Utica Shale is thicker than the Marcellus, it is  more geographically extensive and it has already proven its  ability to support commercial production. 
It is impossible to say at this time how large the Utica Shale resource might be because it has not been thoroughly  evaluated and little public information is available about its organic content, the  thickness of organic-rich intervals and how it will  respond to horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.  However,  the results of early testing indicate that the Utica Shale will be a very significant resource.

This is from Geology.com   http://geology.com/articles/utica-shale/

However,  the results of early testing indicate that the Utica Shale will be a very significant resource.

I will tell you this, if things were as gloomy as you would suggest companies would not be out there still paying close to $6,000 per acre.....AND THAT ISN'T A DREAM, THAT'S A FACT!!!!

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