Predictions for 2013

Please post your predictions for the new year! I'll start it off with my own vision of the future.

I will finally get paid my bonus $$$$$$ and go on a three day bender! (Thanks in advance to Hilcorp).

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Permalink Reply by MJ on December 27, 2012 at 4:26pm

Glad to hear it neighbor (Trumbull County).  Congrats and Happy new year!  I predict we shall see many lit up "christmas trees" this new years evenings.  Halcon has taken down the rig at Phillips in Mercer and is presently moving it to Brugler in Trumbull.  These things are quite a sight see - especially at night.  BP is planning (10) wells east of Mosquito lake in Trumbull.  I have a few friends that are also taking their "benders"  Good luck to all!

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on December 28, 2012 at 7:48am

1. CHK will trade below $13 before they are bought out. If not outright will sell off large part of leases retaining a small interest (overriding royalities) in those leases.

2. After #1 Natural gas prices will rally to $5+. Big boys will drill to hold leases and not produce to recover drilling costs but to HBP.

3. Sometime in 2nd half RRC will announce oil in their SW core marcellus area. Not Marcellus shale oil but upper Devonin shale(s) and tight sands.

4. Utica wet/dry line will move further south and east. Large part of Northern WVa. (12 Counties) or more.

Permalink Reply by Buddy on December 28, 2012 at 11:17am

Tim,

In reference to your #4 opinion, how FAR east do you see the wet/ dry line move in PA?  Being near but east of the present line, I am always curious about any news on that.

Permalink Reply by Samuel J. Orr on December 28, 2012 at 12:11pm

Could you please clarify your comment about the wet/dry line? Are you talking about the Marcellus or the Utica because the wet/dry line is I believe different for these differing strata? My property is in the northern half of Venango County and within several miles of the Mercer County line. I am hoping that I have wet gas but understand that it may be a close call. Can you reference a map or website that shows the presumptive demarcation between wet gas and dry gas for the Marcellus and also for the Utica. Finally is it your contention that wet gas is more likely as you move north or as you move south in western Venango County. Finally with respect to your opinion about the wet gas / dry gas line  moving to the south and east, do you base this on just a wild guess or do you have information that leads you to make the prediction? Best wishes for a prosperous 2013.

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on December 30, 2012 at 12:28pm

Samuel & Buddy,

  As for the Wet/Dry line(s):

 Marcellus is pretty well known. I'm watching the Super rich area. Best map I found for that is Range Resources December presentation page 32.

                   http://www.rangeresources.com/Investor-Relations.aspx

 Utica and Upper Devonian on pages 51-54. These are a work in progess. From their 3rd quarter conference call not going to put much effort into Utica. Going to let others establish best procedures in Utica (were leader in Marcellus) Plus most leases will HBP the Utica. Going to do 3rd test well in upper Devonian super rich soon (page 20). Reason I think Utica Wet/Dry will be more SE is that the NE (Medina county Ohio) showed inmature and Gulfport has very good results in Harrison and Belmont counties in Ohio.

Permalink Reply by Jason on December 30, 2012 at 4:27pm
Tim - where on page 20 do you see talk about the Devonian? I can't seem to find it.
Also - thanks for the info on Range 3qt super rich map. That's a great resource to hold onto.

All the best to you all in 2013! Drill baby drill.
Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on January 1, 2013 at 6:11am

Jason,

Utica and Upper Devonian on pages 51-54. These are just in the starting phase for RRC. About where they were on Marcellus 7 Years ago. Should advance alot faster though. Don't have to go through leasing for these plays.

 I look at it like ice cream on that apple pie, or maybe a second piece.

Permalink Reply by cheliped on January 1, 2013 at 8:05am

tim

what exactly does super rich mean?

Permalink Reply by Tim Tarr on January 1, 2013 at 8:52am

Super Rich = Lots of liquids (oil?)

This link has info on upper devonian. Page 23 has a nice fairway map for Rhinestreet and Burket/Middlesex shales.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&sou...

I really like that part about reservoir rock formations!

Permalink Reply by philip Hobbs on December 30, 2012 at 12:37am
That's good thinking Tim.....
Permalink Reply by gary smith on December 28, 2012 at 11:35am

cafe rica, from costa rica. rum based coffee liquor.   you can only get it in costa rica. have a great time.

Permalink Reply by Tico on December 28, 2012 at 2:34pm
What brought cafe rica up, we are going to costa rica in January to our new vacation home(finca) there, can't wait.

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