Gas Greetings, My nucleus is NE PA Marcellus focused however we find Crawford and nearby interesting and collect some views on the area. You all have an “Up” on us back east, you have seen O&G prod for a century.

We don’t know facts but get the very strong impression that the Marcellus is of little interest your, far shallower, thinner and less rich vs. SW and NE PA, economics are just not there.  Targets are the Utica for oil and gas, in the updraft from the SW to N NE swing trend coming out of NE OH. And we hear of significant interest in the upper Devonian, Rheinstreet and others. A google will surface Rheinstreet info and maps. My look found a swath coming south with some width in C E Crawford, at least that was IDed as thicker? I think it was.

Upper dev is shallower and less expensive to drill and until now has not been fraced, which is the exciting variable we are all watching. Industry tells us that the key to fraced upper is not IP rates but the indicativeness in the decline curve. Frac any shale and of course gas flows forth but is it a 30 d or 180 day blip or something with 2-3 Bcf lifetime.

 Leasing, trying to follow you all, only have 2 other contacts there, lesson from the east  is sure, many won big by waiting but note those were in what turned out to be very desired areas, though some came in super high, some is medium and some has no gas. There are some who didn’t lease in NEPA and now, unless they have a parcel under a planned bore, have little bargaining power. There are bids in Bradford the heart of the NE play for 0 bonus and 15%R, near no addenda. Though most can do better, but not much at this point. There is no forced pooling above the Onondaga which lies under the Marcellus.

Is the other rule, 3800ft? anything under the Onondaga but above 3800 ft is no forced pooling either.

No one lieks to hear this but the extreme abundance of the M + other developing gas plays equals a far lower price horizon for gas looking out many yrs, vast changes to demand will come but only in time. NGL and oil are of course now top targets, let us hope they don’t get over produced as well. Mentioned because a legitimate dry gas prospect of just 2 yrs ago, with good but not top potential is now probably out of the game and for a long time, drilling $s will only go to the best, best, most economic rock.

Net We don’t have much to add here but plan to participate and dig and share what we pick up for

Far NW PA.

Humphrey’s

I am part of a very small nuclei of landowners/royalty owners with position in NEPA. We try to track goings on re leases, and resource discovery, no professional here but have a good variety of sources.

Activity here seems slow, if my manor is bothersome in any way, say so, I can come across as overly adamant, I will try and write   in better perspective.

Lycoming IOP (in our opinion) is 3^rd behind Susquehanna and Bradford in terms of  resource potential in NE PA. Of course well underway, 2012 saw a catch up vs. Bradford who lead in 2011 and Susquehanna prior. Lycoming has some gas history, Texaco drilled in McHenry in 1983, found good gas, two wells produced for about 22 years, I think 7+ bcf lifetime bt vs. the economics the move was abandoned in 1984. The target was very deep and even in 1983 I think cost 12+ million to drill per well. Forget the names but there were 1 or 2 more wells that produced from higher depth, 1980s but nothing significant. Of course Clinton County, N and NW was a major producer from the Oriskany 1930s to the 50s, which is why a lot of interstate infrastructure is still based in N C and NW Clinton.

None if all that has significance to the Middle Devonian  Marcellus which is an A, A, grade resource. Our interest is trying to follow boundry delineation. Vs some parts of Bradford and Susquehanna it appears more uneven.

Thi is what we pick up, comments or disagreements welcome:

Far NW, McHenry, APC has full development underway and it looks like 6-8 mmcf IP rate rock, very good but not top shelve.  

Brown has not been drilled yet and to note, Ultra 2 twps north  into Tioga  is producing but weak.

Far NE looks good, and that fits with adjacent far SE Tioga and SW Bradford, thiugh coming across to the west, some DEP data shows super wells, some good, some ok.

Far east there are lines, On into Columbia is seeing no further drilling and south Laidsville not too far looks dead.

Picture Rocks & N of  Hughesville saw some of the earliest production and net looks like good, not super wells. 5ish IPs, normal declines.

Central upper Lycoming , at least west of 87, gamble, cascade, Proctor look to be coming in very strong, and on west of there is the Seneca swatch of super good wells. We think that is the sweet swatch for Lycoming, how far north it extends to be determined. Oddly the twp east and north of the Slabtown bridge north we hear has no lease interest, seems odd but from a good source.  Though is it the  ? Gun? dadday Hunt club is getting drilled, guess, 5-7 mi east of 87.

Coming south of Slabtown the 1^st Warrior well was a vertical drilled for study, core analysis. It won’t produce. The attendant Warrior wells across the street came on 1H 2013, all averaged! 3 mmcf/d. Those rates are low but we don’t know if Inflection has limited Transco capacity, lets hope so, 3 is not enough to warrant 6 million$ F&D.

Complexities, our guess is nothing gets drilled S of the Wrrior site, Inflection has wells more north that came in fine and that area borders the APC (Anadarko) successes more W and N, looks good.

Coming west from Hughesville we are seeing no fresh permit activity, anyone see differently?

North of the mall area, we see Davis and a few other permits, might anyone know if any of those were drilled, current status? To know drilling a vertical 7k ft might be 750k, the horizontal included 1.5-2 million, completion, the fracing is the $4-5 million item. Gascos may drill and decide afterwards they don’t like what they found and not frac.

We are told it gets very tricky *& to the mall area, no linear lines of good/bad, seismic would have helped.  We are lost in judging that area, but know several people for whom it matters (college of no college for kids!!%^&* ha) . In an overall sense, what this started most landowners where highly skeptical,  now they hear of successes I nit far away and assume they have gas 100%.

Just not the case.

Good luck to us all.

Any views re Fairfield twp and east are appreciated.

... The Humphrey's