Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Philip Thackray on July 11, 2014 at 10:17am

Booger,

Steep declines indeed!

Nice tables.  Thank you.

The oil (condensate) production falls off much more quickly than the gas in these shale wells.  Range Resources shows that same behavior in their decline curves.

Phil

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 4:46am

I modified the Harvey numbers above in red..........I missed the Q3 numbers...........which are kindof interesting because daily production bumped up.

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Permalink Reply by Bluflame on July 12, 2014 at 2:03am

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Permalink Reply by Bluflame on July 12, 2014 at 2:33am

Booger,

  Sorry, connection problem.

   These are all older CHK wells. Production methodology has theoretically improved to the point GPOR is predicting no production decline for the first two years. Time will tell if this proves to be the case. Utica drillers are choking back new wells sharply to maintain reservoir pressure. They claim this will reduce declines, improved EUR's and well ROI's. Again, the jury is still out pending extended results.

  On a related note, the horizontal wells still only recover <10% of available reservoir hydrocarbons. Not certain how reservoir engineers determine that number. Anyway, there has been talk of re-fracking wells after several years of production, It's asserted that that re-fracking could cause production to meet or exceed initial results. Apparently, there is a challenge re-fracking the long, multi-stage laterals. But likely someone will figure it out if the results are as asserted.

BluFlame

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 2:41am

blue,

all very good points.........and yes those are all older wells........the first actually.......they have the most decline data..

i will post some more wells on this thread as i run the numbers.

as far as GPOR's prediction - have to see it to believe it.

also - Halliburton is advertising their re-fracking services already in texas with data to justify the cost..

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Permalink Reply by Bluflame on July 14, 2014 at 2:58am

Booger,

 I'm also "from Missouri" on the GPOR type curves. Good news about Halliburton on re-fracking. We're still a few years away from that need, but it's nice to know someone has figured it ou!

 

BluFlame

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 11:36am

these are the next 6 that came on line..........and represent other counties and operators...

Frec wells are Anadarko in Guernsey and Noble counties....NacGas well is Hess in Jefferson and the SanorFarms is CHK in Columbia county.

some interesting upticks in places.....but still significant declines overall with the exception of the Hess well which shows ZERO decline up until the most recent QTR.

FREC GUER SPENCER A1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	293	46	140	$5,160
Q1 2013	90	17	70	$1,980
Q2 2013	91	11	133	$1,632
Q3 2013	89	9	171	$1,584
Q4 2013	53	5	122	$988
Q1 2014	71	14	312	$2,648
totals to date	687	$2,219,940
FREC GUER SPENCER A-5H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	276	96	276	$10,704
Q1 2013	84	15	295	$2,680
Q2 2013	4	207	763	$23,752
Q3 2013	92	20	601	$4,404
Q4 2013	73	15	282	$2,628
Q1 2014	80	10	372	$2,488
totals to date	609	$4,070,484
FREC NOBL BROOKFIELD A-3H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	292	131	664	$15,756
Q1 2013	89	34	546	$5,584
Q2 2013	82	29	527	$5,008
Q3 2013	87	21	508	$4,132
Q4 2013	92	20	678	$4,712
Q1 2014	80	14	558	$3,632
totals to date	722	$6,591,932

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 11:38am

....continued..

FREC NOBL SHARON A-1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	252	120	503	$14,012
Q1 2013	90	41	435	$5,840
Q2 2013	89	34	406	$5,024
Q3 2013	92	33	434	$5,036
Q4 2013	88	26	387	$4,148
Q1 2014	72	23	367	$3,768
totals to date	683	$5,603,392
NAC GAS UNIT B 3H-3	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	292	0	3083	$12,332
Q1 2013	90	0	3233	$12,932
Q2 2013	78	0	3494	$13,976
Q3 2013	14	0	3143	$12,572
Q4 2013	62	0	3249	$12,996
Q1 2014	68	0	1857	$7,428
totals to date	604	$7,178,380
SANOR FARMS 23-17-5 3H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	204	43	268	$5,372
Q1 2013	84	24	153	$3,012
Q2 2013	87	13	97	$1,688
Q3 2013	80	19	185	$2,640
Q4 2013	91	18	161	$2,444
Q1 2014	85	17	159	$2,336
totals to date	631	$2,127,916

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 1:42pm

Gulfport's first 8 wells.......not as old as the others posted as they had limited 2012 production....can only do 4 per post....

WAGNER 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	129	94	4994	$29,376
Q1 2013	86	117	6805	$38,920
Q2 2013	88	75	7856	$38,924
Q3 2013	49	48	6694	$31,576
Q4 2013	72	19	2140	$10,460
Q1 2014	81	6	2264	$9,656
totals to date	505	$13,644,416
BOY SCOUT 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	32	1164	3839	$131,756
Q1 2013	67	321	1314	$37,356
Q2 2013	51	329	1397	$38,488
Q3 2013	90	154	1302	$20,608
Q4 2013	80	141	790	$17,260
Q1 2014	81	113	570	$13,580
totals to date	401	$13,017,432
GROH 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	6	872	0	$87,200
Q1 2013	0	0	0	$0
Q2 2013	13	639	2248	$72,892
Q3 2013	20	380	1361	$43,444
Q4 2013	85	161	592	$18,468
Q1 2014	82	101	389	$11,656
totals to date	206	$4,865,248
SHUGERT 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	5	51	0	$5,100
Q1 2013	0	0	0	$0
Q2 2013	71	34	12673	$54,092
Q3 2013	87	1	8931	$35,824
Q4 2013	42	9	7766	$31,964
Q1 2014	82	2	2010	$8,240
totals to date	287	$9,000,888

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Permalink Reply by Booger on July 14, 2014 at 1:44pm

.....GPOR continued....

SHUGERT 1-12H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	5	75	0	$7,500
Q1 2013	0	0	0	$0
Q2 2013	73	101	14263	$67,152
Q3 2013	85	36	9740	$42,560
Q4 2013	79	16	8405	$35,220
Q1 2014	67	16	6166	$26,264
totals to date	309	$13,099,264
B. K. STEPHENS 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	5	1281	0	$128,100
Q1 2013	0	0	0	$0
Q2 2013	68	301	3978	$46,012
Q3 2013	90	118	2617	$22,268
Q4 2013	86	37	1748	$10,692
Q1 2014	75	18	1112	$6,248
totals to date	324	$7,161,548
CLAY 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	2	445	0	$44,500
Q1 2013	3	596	3750	$74,600
Q2 2013	41	281	2753	$39,112
Q3 2013	35	49	569	$7,176
Q4 2013	43	42	404	$5,816
Q1 2014	49	23	415	$3,960
totals to date	173	$2,611,680
RYSER 1H	days	oil/day	gas/day	$/day
2012	1	628	0	$62,800
Q1 2013	0	0	0	$0
Q2 2013	85	256	2095	$33,980
Q3 2013	90	113	1110	$15,740
Q4 2013	72	55	1030	$9,620
Q1 2014	82	40	888	$7,552
totals to date	330	$5,679,604

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Permalink Reply by Dexter Green on July 15, 2014 at 4:29am

Notice that the worst decline was Shugart 1H, which showed about an 85% drop in gas volume in 282 days.  It also has the least oil production (of those that are producing oil, that is).  There is some kind of connection between low volume oil production and rapid gas decline.  The NAC Gas Unit was steady and is firmly in the dry gas window with no oil whatsoever.  I think you'll see the most consistent EURs and the lowest declines in that dry part of the play, but the most immediate profit will still be that wetter area that GPOR is developing.

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Permalink Reply by Bill Barnaby on July 15, 2014 at 12:59am

Numbers all over the place, it should be interesting to eyeglasses in the next few years. Thank you very much for posting.

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