Can Pennsylvania Save the EV Industry?

First, let’s address the elephant in the room. Fossil fuel-based industries and the products they are used to create are not going away in our lifetimes. Not in our children’s lifetimes. Likely not ever. That is not to say, however, that their use cannot be curtailed. Environmentalists are working 24/7/365 to achieve this and, to a certain degree, are succeeding. This is a good thing, assuming it is being achieved for non-political reasons, using good sense, rational policies, environmental stewardship, and the like. I am 100% on board with many of these, especially eliminating plastic as our main source of packaging. Despite assurances made during its introduction and proliferation, plastic basically cannot be recycled. The cost is prohibitive and the scientific acumen necessary to achieve it is non-existent. It also contributes greatly to the “forever chemicals” which now are prevalent on Earth and pose global health hazards to us all.

In their devotion to ending fossil fuel use, environmentalists have two favorite agendas that they are currently pushing – solar power and electric vehicles (hereinafter referred to as EV’s). Regretfully, solar power is currently cost-prohibitive and inefficient. Perhaps one day (and one day soon, I hope) technology will catch up and solar will become truly a viable alternative for our energy needs. In addition to scientific and economic challenges within the industry, there are some shortcomings that likely will never be solved. Did you know that most solar-based systems are feasible only under “optimal solar conditions”? In the US alone, that excludes 5 states and over 13M residents.

And what about their beloved EV’s? There is not enough time here to discuss the myriad of problems facing this industry, so we will address just one, although it is a really big one – the necessity for lithium-based batteries. Environmentalists and politicians both have reason for concern here. The politicians lament the fact that most of the lithium comes from an undesirable source – China. China not only supplies 80% of the world’s battery cells, but also a full 60% of lithium-based batteries. Even some US based companies involved in battery production rely on lithium-cell components produced by Chinese manufacturers.

Also, this reliance on China for our lithium needs entails a certain degree of political risk. First and foremost, China is not our ally. I wouldn’t characterize them as our enemy, but much of their agenda is counter-productive to our wants and needs. Should they so desire, what would prevent them from imposing an embargo, for lack of a better word, on lithium in response to a disagreement on, say, Taiwan. More likely, but similarly crippling, they could just take a page out of President Trump’s book and place an outlandish tariff on lithium and lithium-based exports. Inflation is rampant enough in today’s America. We certainly do not need any more.

A little-known fact is that the US military is also alarmingly reliant on China and its lithium-backed batteries. Our armed forces need specialized batteries that are bigger, of higher quality, greater power density, and packed to endure the rigors of battle. China has much greater consumer demand for basic lithium-based batteries (primarily for EV’s) and makes a hell of a lot more money producing such. What incentive would they have to retool production to accommodate an adversary?

These risks have been evident for some time. In fact, a de-classified report by the Interagency Task Force (in fulfillment of Executive Order #13806) described this vulnerability in 2018, during President Trump’s term in office. China could indeed cause severe shortages of key defense products, including drones, F-35’s, fighter jets, surface-to-air missiles, and even radios. That would be an alarming and potentially catastrophic event.

Alternatives to lithium batteries are being explored and developed but they are years, if not decades, from being market-ready. A better solution would be to develop supply chains independent of China or China-based companies. But where could we possibly obtain another reliable source for lithium, one without political and military risks? How about Pennsylvania. I know….Pennsylvania? How could a US based source be developed, especially one that involves no mining and which is obtained as a by-product of a necessary industry already up and running? Before you declare me insane, allow me to briefly explain.

Some will surely take issue with my use of the term “necessary industry” in making reference to oil and gas fracking. I am not here to debate the integrity or necessity of the industry, but I do believe deriving lithium as a by-product of fracking and horizontal drilling is incrementally better than the alternative. It is generally recognized that traditional lithium mining leads to soil degradation, water scarcity, and air contamination among other issues.

So, is lithium mining worse than fracking? Well, according to Mining-Technnology.com, the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse emissions that result from the mining, extraction and production of lithium are “worse than the production of fossil fuel-powered vehicles”. That’s a sad and ironic truth that EV enthusiasts are now forced to face. Further, Wikipedia reports that lithium mining has such a detrimental effect that many countries have already established incredibly strict environmental and rehabilitation codes to mitigate the process. Fact is, lithium mining results in significant negative environmental impact not only to local ecosystems, but to the environmental health of the entire planet. Now…. back to Pennsylvania.

A June 4th report found on CEN.ACS.org (a fixture for Chemical and Engineering news), stated that a “massive potential lithium source was recently found to exist in wastewater from PA shale gas wells”. How massive? Try 40% of all US demand for the critical battery metal. Justin Mackey, a Geo-Chemist at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, estimates that wastewater from PA’s Marcellus shale exploration could provide roughly 1160 metric tons of lithium per year. The lithium here comes from ancient volcanic eruptions that occurred as the shale rock was being deposited.

The bad news, if there is any, is that much of SW PA may not be productive for lithium extraction. With today’s technology, lithium is typically economically feasible only when the brine contains 200 mg/L or more. Whereas wells in NE PA have a median lithium content of 205 mg/L, and are certainly prospective for lithium extraction, wells in the SW part of the Commonwealth have a median of only 127 mg/L. West Virginia has also been mentioned, as it also contains Marcellus wells, but if the North to South trajectory shown in PA continues, it will likely not be commercially feasible. Technology will have to improve in order to make the economics work here, far beyond the relatively simple evaporation techniques currently available.

It didn’t take long for E&P companies to begin scrambling to take advantage of this opportunity. On June 4th, Occidental Petroleum announced that it had entered into a joint venture with BHE Renewables (Berkshire Hathaway’s energy unit) to commercially produce lithium, by extracting it from sub-surface wells “in an environmentally safe manner”. They plan to use the ten Geothermal power plants that they already own in California’s Imperial Valley and claim to be able to process 50K gallons of lithium-rich brine per minute. Once their process has been perfected, BHE plans to build, own, and operate several commercial lithium production facilities nearby. I suppose the brine will arrive in tankers via rail from PA, as I have only heard of lithium appearing in brine or flow-back water from Marcellus completions. It remains to be seen if lithium will appear in any other shale formations nationwide. For now, I am only hearing about its presence in PA.

It's a monkey-see, monkey-do world we live in and energy companies are not immune to such. Consequently, there was no surprise when other majors made announcements to enter the fray. Exxon Mobil, for example, has already notified investors that it has plans to start producing lithium from its sub-surface wells by 2027. And this is almost 100% directed toward extracting the lithium for use in EV batteries. BP and Shell have also made recent announcements regarding their intent to invest in the EV revolution, although their current plans are directed as to the market for EV charging stations, rather than extraction or production of lithium itself.

Now, as to the conundrum for environmentalists. If EV’s are indeed a huge part of the movement to wean America, and the planet in general, from the evils of fossil fuels, how do they reconcile the use of lithium batteries? The mining, extraction, and production of lithium has been scientifically proven to be far worse ecologically than hydraulic fracking. And, the environmental impact of obtaining lithium can presently only be lessened by its replacement with lithium derived from fracked wells. Will they swallow their pride and embrace (tolerate) shale fracking in PA (and wherever else it may be found to exist) so that they may power their beloved EV messiahs in a more eco-friendly manner?

In the unlikely event that Greenies accept the lesser of two evils and adopt the use of flowback water from shale wells in lieu of traditional lithium extraction, they still have what some would call “an uncomfortable truth”. Spin it however you wish, but there is no getting around the scientific fact put forward by the researchers at Mining-Technology.com – mining lithium has proven to be “worse for the climate than the production of fossil-fuel powered vehicles”. I know I have already used this quote once, but it is worthy of repetition.

For environmentalists, its “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”, at least that’s how Winston Churchill would have described it. As for me, I’ll just settle for conundrum. Let’s see how environmentalists respond.