Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Doug Duffield on August 17, 2012 at 11:56am

Same pad, greenzweig was South Westerns first logged marcellus well in Brad. Co. not THE first well in the county. How about that 70% decline in the first year you mentioned on another site?

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 17, 2012 at 1:19pm

Hi D Duffield, Greetings.

I am unaware of posting 70% declines for Greenzweig but would have expected that from what we ( we, meaning a few that share diggings) knew circa 2008, soon after the first well was drilled on that site, a V, March 2008.

 With all respect and old hat at this point and maybe of no interest here, the log from the 1^st Greenzweig scored the highest out of 20+ Marcellus logs in a review ~2009. The combo of thickness+richness+plus had it forecast as probably having the most gas in place of the 20+ wells. The Matuscheck well in mid Wayne County PA came in last.

Based on general knowledge the early view was for a yr 1 decline of 70% + or -. Since then as you would know more than most, it will average out much slower. If you look at Ultra, Talisman, Seneca (other?) publ;ic decoine graphs, it might be 60%. Also worth knowing, most have flattened their curve expectations again within the last 6 months. The fall is less a few months in, which is positive for EUR projections.

 

IMO only, we think the Southwestern CEO said it well in the last Conf call, their wells/geology are very close to the quality of other area wells wit the big announcements, meaning Cabot. Southwestern is conservative, not looking for headlines but looking to maximize EURs. They state they expect to get more gas over time by holding-back vs blow out completions with 20+ IP rates. Like all, they need to drill to HBP ay this point.

 

Their wild side would be the new longer, more stages wells, where the output rises mo 2-5 vs 1-2.  Simple view, through time all cos will maximize their recipes and all will do very well.

 

Like it or leave it, other than held-back, Marcellus wells do and will have declines of 60% of so yr 1. But a held-back doing 8 mmcf/d, might be dopng 12+, not held back.

Our guess anyway. We know others disagree. And thye may be right.

M Humphrey

Permalink Reply by Doug Duffield on August 18, 2012 at 12:52am

The first Greenzweig was a vertical, they ran the flare for three months (off and on) didn't seem to lose pressure, it was quite a tourist attraction. The then drilled the first horizontal and ran the flare for a month. Then they built the fresh water holding pond on the downside of the pad, making it the perfect place to experiment with completions, which have turned out to be very good (by reports). What are you basing decline on, initial ip or the peak incline ip?

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 18, 2012 at 6:16am

DEP @s out and the 6 Hs on Greenzweig are all about 5 mmcf/d- tremendous.

Tell me but I think this is our 1st look at NE bradford, Talisman is reportin many, many Pike Twp wells and it looks good - lots of 6s, 5s, some down to 2s.

Orwell on the other hand has 6 wells reporting, 1.6 to 1.85,  not so good, though there may be an explaniation- lack of tie-in capacity?

What do we use? not sure what you mean, decline source is from corp  graphs.

I track Shirley 5 H, two full yrs into prod, and basically zero decline.

 

Permalink Reply by Doug Duffield on August 18, 2012 at 8:25am

Just wondered why you keep touting 60% declines when wells in the fairway are producing like the shirley, ergo imo you can't say with certainty just what declines will be until we have five or six years of production. Choking back wells has seemed to improve production after flowback, chk trys to keep them around 8mmcfd, all maecellus isn't the same.

 

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 19, 2012 at 4:07pm

No question many Terry Twp & nearby wells are steady producers- no argument. Industry people tell me 100%, it isn't a magical find but 100% from holding back. Southwestern says some hold back improves eventual total extraction. I don't know that Chesapeake has said the same, but it is assumed they believe the same.

We don't mean to be an irritant, I don't think we are in any great disagreemet.

Lft to its own devices, with some very modest choking Terry Twp would probaly be seeing something like 12 or higher IPs  and declines less than forcast 4 yrs ago, but still in some "nirmal" decline.

Let me dig up ome links. Was it Ultra or Seneca who revised their curves, more flatter 3-9 mo out, but still showing commonly expected about 60 yr one, 40, yr 2 and o on. Even with 60s, you see 40s and 7os.

 

Flat output in wells doing 8 / d yells, thus is great geology, it is better than the 8 implies! It is fr better than forcast just a couple or yrs back.

You might recall, in 08 or so, the thinking was 4 or 5 bcf lifetime would be dynamite, now in the best, it looks like 10 +.

We don't have much 3 yr let alone 5 yr data, you are 100% right, but any industry person will say whatever it unfolds to be, we won't be flat at 8 for 4 or 5 yrs.

 

No interest in arguing, these are our views, we are confident but can well be wrong!

http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnfull/20120802/DA49560

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 19, 2012 at 5:05pm

http://www.swn.com/investors/Press_Releases/2012/05.03.12.pdf

 I see Noble has a 17 mmcf /d IP well but are forcasting there overall EURs at 7 Bcf.

Permalink Reply by Doug Duffield on August 20, 2012 at 9:52am

Not arguing by any means, just debateing a few points, i go by monthly royalty check stubs on five different wells even though i know there is manipulation and also they are choked, the decline isn't nearly 60% for the first year or year and a half.

Permalink Reply by Kevin on February 3, 2013 at 9:06am

I ran across this old post while researching Greenzweig U and R pads. Both of these pads are separate from the original Greenzweig unit. The R pad is called the Bromley/Swisher unit in Stevens township. They are both located behind Frank and Mary's restaurant on rt 706, I think. This is all new to me. Once I checked Landex and found out I belonged to a unit, I became a little bit more interested in what is going on.