"why no decline in Terry twp wells" cont.

I think we are beating a dead horse here, I don’t mean to go on and on. Right or wrong our developed view is the lack of decline common  in SE Bradford wells isn’t sourced from magical rock that will go on an on, rather 1. implies the rock in this area is super good and CHK is tempering flows. And for either a lack of take-out capacity or in the belief long term EURs (expected ultimate recovery) are more optimal with early constraints. Other cos, namely Southwestern have stated the later being their reasoning behind hold backs. 

Which brings up the question of is SWN’s & CHK’s skill or rock that mush less than Cabot 35 miles away with wells doing 20 IP, vs SWN/CHK’s 8-10. Our theory is the Susque rock is somewhat better but COG is going all-out in the completion phase and eating into long end EUR.

We won’t know for 5 + yrs. 

Repeating as well nd we are told by industry folks that this is common in other plays, CHK seems slower to experiment with spacing and other metrics until well into the play. UPL, Talisman, Seneca, and now SWN to some degree have been experimenting. We hear 3rd hand that SWN does not plan to go way down in spacing, i.e. 80 acres yes but maybe not even 60. In their Fayetteville I think they are down to 40 or under. All say each shale has different physical rock properties and the ultimate completion formulas will differ play to play. 

Others will disagree but therefore we expect perhaps 10 wells in an 800 acre unit, not the 25 bandied about.

 

Much of this is mute, the area has super rock, among the best in the whole 50 million acres of Marcellus. And anyone with O&G rights here should be over thrilled and feel blessed. 

Mr Duffy- We see the DEP figures have a DAVE well (what twp is that?) producing 1st 12 days at ~8.5 mmcf/d. That is the highest we recall for SE Bradford to date. 

Also re your reference to Terry Twp, Shirley I think you said, we were given numbers of Sept 2010, 2H 240,000 mcf, 5H 230,000 mcf and June 2012   2H 130,442 and 5H 244,991. 

2H is viewed as positive, down less than 505 in 24 months, 5H unchanged, amazing. Might that imply it is a 12 or 14 mmcf IP well without choke? 

Chesapeake June 2012 price, 2.35, better than 1.85 but still stinko.

 

Melissa Humphrey

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Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Tom on August 24, 2012 at 5:30am

I've been following your posts.  I'm in the unit right next to the Greenzweigs and have been receiving roylaties for almost two years.  We saw little drop in flow for the first 8 months then on Oct. 1st 2011 they shut down our well for 7 days and after that the flow was decreased.  I talked to my contact at SW and he indicated that they were reducing flow because they were running out of room in the lines with new wells coming on board. ( I'm sure price also played a factor) He assured me gas was not an issue.  Since then it has been relatively constant but considerably lower.  I can't say anything bad about SW.  They have been very fair and honest through our whole process and I do feel blessed to be where we are. 

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 24, 2012 at 6:39am

SWN has taken their Fayetteville production from 0 to 2 Bcf/d in 8 years.

That is a giant accomplishment.

They are execellent in tech and science.

Years ahead, you will be receiving royaty from more wells in

your unit. 

Melissa.

*** Wish I had some Herrick mineral rights!

Permalink Reply by Deci Ruiz on August 26, 2012 at 1:34am
Hi I have herrick mineral right and i'm in two SWN units. Could you give me more info.
Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 26, 2012 at 8:57am

Mr Ruiz- All I cn say is you are ina top area and as more wells get drilled Southwestern will lilekly get more efficient in extracting more gas.

 

Nice asset.

Melissa

Permalink Reply by Moldyoak on August 28, 2012 at 5:26am

When those guys on the rigs were drilling at the Crawford, Plymouth and the Dave sites (all three sites very close in a little string) they kept going on about how dense the rock was and how subsequently slow the drilling was.  I also remember as pertaining to Crawford and Dave that they said they were both going to have enormous pressure.  Crawford is choked, don't know how much, but 4H is only 3 stages completed.  Not sure if Dave is choked or if that 8.5 is open flow.

Permalink Reply by melissa humphrey on August 28, 2012 at 3:00pm

Thanks Moldyoak. fwiw I will ask a geologist friend next visit what density implies.

We can say for certainty that pressure is a key, key component. IE the two wells mentioned

above with varying output from the same site, the stronger one of the two had higher pressure early on - I think it was ~ 20% higher, yet for the first 18 mo, output was similar. Now the weaker is30-40% under the superior well.

Pure guess, the 8.5 is choked.

I think we all know, all wells are choked a bit just to smooth flow. Though that Range well way back, 25 mmcf IP, may have been fracked like crazy and left in open flow. Feb to Sept it went from 25 mmcf to 1.3 or there abouts. An experiment.

    Thanks to all for the input, we have  varied experiences and data sources, combined 1+1 = 3!

Melissa

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