Jack's Picks VI

What follows is a discussion in which I will post/share industry related articles that I believe to be of general interest to some who frequent this site.

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Permalink Reply by Tim on October 29, 2014 at 12:37am
Great posts, ty.

In regards to pipeline, and pricing in north central PA, the Dominion Cove is only one of many pipelines being built. There are projects on the table in virtually every direction, so its not a binary event. We will see the differential shrink in the next 2-3 years, and pricing firm up depending on the amount of lng being shipped on the seas.

Jack, what is your outlook for the Utica in north central PA? The two Shell wells have been quite strong, with another producing in Tioga (silvstetd), and another about to be flared (watkins). The shale extends into the west, Potter county, with increased leasing activity their the last two months, and steadily increasing. Interested to hear your thesis on the 'Northern Utica' play.
Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on October 29, 2014 at 4:42am

RE: "what is your outlook for the Utica in north central PA? The two Shell wells have been quite strong, with another producing in Tioga"

I look upon Shell's recent successes as the most important development for PA in 2014.

It extends in depth of that portion of the Utica which is prospective; a swath of land that had been considered  to be 'over mature' can now be considered to be within the dry gas window (or potentially within the dry gas window).

I believe that the ramifications of those successful deep Utica wells extend beyond north central PA.

The Utica Shale of PA is deposited in the NNE-SSW trending Rome Trough; implications are that additional prospective territory is opened up both to the NNE and to the SSE of the Shell wells. The truth of that will likely be affected by any lateral variations in Total Organic Carbon (TOC), thickness or burial history of the Utica.

An old adage concerns the science of 'Trendology'; the best place to look for Oil & Gas is on trend with where you have already found Oil & Gas. I anticipate that activity will take place (in baby steps) out from (along trend with) the successful Shell wells.

For the Marcellus and Utica, I believe that we are in the early years of a story that will take 20-40 additional years to play out; as bystanders, we will sit and watch how matters play out.

All IMHO,

                 JS 

Permalink Reply by Tim on October 29, 2014 at 7:36am
Thank you for the insight.
Permalink Reply by markkot on October 29, 2014 at 6:24am

Jack,

I always read your replies with interest and you probably have commented along the way and I've missed it, but what's your view on NW PA, specifically Crawford Co?

 

thanks for your opinion(s),  mark

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on October 29, 2014 at 9:58am

RE: "what's your view on NW PA, specifically Crawford Co?"

This is not an area for which I have much specific knowledge; it is not an area that I closely follow.

The O & G companies who operate in that area doubtless have proprietary mapping and well data beyond that which is available in the public literature. 

From the published maps of the Utica; for PA, only the Northwestern most corner of the State finds the Utica to be within the oil window.

Crawford County (along with portions of Erie, Mercer and Lawrence Counties,) has the good fortune to be in a location where the Utica is within the Oil Window. What is not within the Oil Window, would be within the Wet Gas window.

Pluses (in addition to being in the oil and/or Wet Gas window) would be the more shallow depth of the Utica (cheaper to drill and complete). A minor minus would be a thinning of the Utica as one approaches the edge of the depositional basin; still, within Crawford County, the Utica does have substantial thickness.  The pluses outweigh the minuses as oil and NGLs still have substantial value; when contrasted against Dry Gas.

 

There are others on this site who doubtless know more about this area and could add to or correct any errors in what I have stated.

 

All IMHO,

                    JS

Permalink Reply by Joseph-Ohio on October 29, 2014 at 10:34am
Thank you for your read JS.

Would like the action to pick up.

Seems to me what's happening in NW PA would also be happening in NE OH (unless there's an impervious barrier and / or a drastic geological sea change at the PA OH border).

We need some (alot of) development action in this geography if you ask me.

All only IMHO.

Thanks once again.
Permalink Reply by Nancy LeNau on October 29, 2014 at 2:54pm

Jack Straw,  I seem to read almost everything you write !  I am learning so very much.  Thank you.  I would Love  to hear what you say about my part of the area. I have a farm in Hookstown, PA.  Beaver County.  We are very close to the Ohio River near Shippingport.  Also close to the Northern Panhandle of W.V. We are currently   with CHK. but Range is buying up leases in our area.  My neighbor was contacted by Range and was offered $2,500.00 per acre and 17 % for a straight 5 year lease..  Just WHAT ??  is under us ?  I think the Marcellus is around 30 ft. thick, Utica is thicker, Maybe  some Black River Trenton ?  I don't think any oil. Not sure.  Anything  you can tell me would be much appreciated.  Sorry , this is so long Jack.  I will be waiting for your reply.  MANY, MANY, THANKS !   God Bless...

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on October 29, 2014 at 2:46pm

The below link is to a 41 page report from Range Resources entitled: Takeaway Capacity in Appalachia.

 

It discusses the situation (existing and potential future) in getting our Natural Gas to market.

I suggest paying particular attention to page 21.

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NTU2OTYwfENoaWxkSUQ9MjU1MzAxfFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Permalink Reply by Nancy LeNau on October 29, 2014 at 3:17pm

Oh My Jack !   Trying to understand this all.  We are farmers and I just want my Husband ( who is ill ) to see the Grand Canyon .  That is his wish.  Thank you for all your help !   God Bless you for helping everyone !  I will keep reading what you write !   

Permalink Reply by Jack Straw on October 29, 2014 at 4:05pm

RE: "I just want my Husband ( who is ill ) to see the Grand Canyon"

I am a great fan of Google Earth, a free download.

It is quite intuitive; you simple fool around with it to learn how to use it.

With Google Earth on your computer, the National park Service has a 'virtual tour' of the Grand Canyon:

http://www.grandcanyonvirtualtour.com/

Remarkable views.

If you are not yet familiar with Google Earth; you will find it most amazing ... it will show you how small the Earth is.

JS

Permalink Reply by Nancy LeNau on October 29, 2014 at 4:19pm

Oh WOW Jack !   You are Truly Wonderful !!!!  THANK YOU !!!!   Daniel and I both THANK YOU !!  God Bless....

Permalink Reply by Tim on November 2, 2014 at 5:24pm
Awesome piece, thanks for sharing!

Page 21 is good, but 16 stood out for me; neg differential to be shrunk much sooner than most think.

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