Occam's Razor is a principle urging one to select among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation of the effect

Occam's Razor has been around in various forms for thousands of years … Aristotle, stated "Nature operates in the shortest way possible.".

Some other ways in which Occam's Razor could be stated are:

"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"

"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."

"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."

. . . or in the its most basic form . . . "Keep things simple!".

The most useful statement of the principle in science is:

"when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better."

Most of us (wittingly or unwittingly) make use of Occam's Razor in our daily lives; it is a powerful tool in helping make decisions when competing arguments are presented.

Now that you have read about Occam's Razor, let me tell you you a little story about a small village in Gaslandia where:

• Water is bubbling out of Springs, Wells and flowing Streams.
• This water contains Methane Gas in small but measurable quantities.
• Methane Gas has been documented as being present in the water, in some cases this documentation is hundreds of years old.
• This land is rich in shallow coal deposits, mined by a tribe of Dwarfs for over one hundred years.
• The coal deposits are rich in Methane Gas that can be freely released into air and water.
• One day, Leprechauns arrive with a drilling rig and drill a 7000’ deep well and vast amounts of Methane Gas is discovered.

One week after the 7000’ well is drilled, Ernie the Troll drills a 100’ deep water well and … low and behold … Methane Gas is present in the water.

Two theories are set forth to explain the presence of Methane Gas in Ernie the Troll’s water well:

1. Ernie the Troll insists that the 7000’ well is responsible for the Methane Gas and demands a Pot of Gold from the Leprechauns as compensation. Al Foxedup, a Big City film maker arrives after hearing of Ernie the Troll’s gassy well. Seeing the opportunity to make a name for himself, Al insists that the problem is caused my Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys (MIFM). We know that monkeys are mischievous by nature. Since the monkeys are invisible, it is impossible to see them, it is impossible to prove that they do not exist. The suggestion that they also fly makes the story even better. Al makes his movie, warning about the dangers of Methane Gas producing Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys and the Movie is a tremendous success throughout Gaslandia. Al warns that the Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys are inclined to go anywhere where wells are drilled. In fact Al Foxedup insists that by drilling down 7000’ and busting up (fracturing) the rocks, the Leprechauns are purposely releasing the  Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys from the bowels of the Earth. Panic ensues across the land as people stand vigilant in fear of an invasion of Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys. A movement develops and Leprechauns are rounded up and placed in a special internment camp (Camp FracMo), as punishment for the supposed crime of releasing the Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys.  
2. Mayor Occam Letsfrac (who is also the Village School Teacher) suggests that there has always been a problem with Methane Gas in their water and that in all likelihood that Methane Gas is Coal Bed Methane – the same Coal Bed Methane that comes out of the well that powers their Wooden Shoe Factory.

Mayor Occam Letsfrac calls a Village meeting to discuss which of the two competing theories are correct.

Mayor Occam Letsfrac insists that his theory is correct, it offers the simplest explanation, and is consistent with all the observations.

And, Mayor Occam Letsfrac notes that no one has ever seen one of Al Foxedup’s

Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys.

To counter, Al Foxedup notes that since you cannot see an Invisible Monkey, they therefore must exist – challenging anyone to prove him wrong. And besides, Al is now a rich and famous Filmmaker, loved by Follywood stars and politicians – Al has the support of the rich and famous. Al has been on Nofrac Windfree’s show. Al has street cred; outside of the Village, no one has heard of the Mayor.

Sadly, the Mayor could not prove that Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys do not exist.

Al’s argument wins by popular acclaim.

The Village votes to recall and exile (former) Mayor Occam Letsfrac.

The new Village leaders erect a statue of Al Foxedup.

And, everyone (except for the Leprechauns) live happily ever after.

Is there a moral to this story?

I guess it would be that it is amazing to see how many people want to be Al Foxedup.

JS