Occam's Razor is a principle urging one to select among competing hypotheses that which makes the fewest assumptions and thereby offers the simplest explanation of the effect
Occam's Razor has been around in various forms for thousands of years … Aristotle, stated "Nature operates in the shortest way possible.".
Some other ways in which Occam's Razor could be stated are:
"If you have two theories that both explain the observed facts, then you should use the simplest until more evidence comes along"
"The simplest explanation for some phenomenon is more likely to be accurate than more complicated explanations."
"If you have two equally likely solutions to a problem, choose the simplest."
"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
. . . or in the its most basic form . . . "Keep things simple!".
The most useful statement of the principle in science is:
"when you have two competing theories that make exactly the same predictions, the simpler one is the better."
Most of us (wittingly or unwittingly) make use of Occam's Razor in our daily lives; it is a powerful tool in helping make decisions when competing arguments are presented.
Now that you have read about Occam's Razor, let me tell you you a little story about a small village in Gaslandia where:
One week after the 7000’ well is drilled, Ernie the Troll drills a 100’ deep water well and … low and behold … Methane Gas is present in the water.
Two theories are set forth to explain the presence of Methane Gas in Ernie the Troll’s water well:
Mayor Occam Letsfrac calls a Village meeting to discuss which of the two competing theories are correct.
Mayor Occam Letsfrac insists that his theory is correct, it offers the simplest explanation, and is consistent with all the observations.
And, Mayor Occam Letsfrac notes that no one has ever seen one of Al Foxedup’s
Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys.
To counter, Al Foxedup notes that since you cannot see an Invisible Monkey, they therefore must exist – challenging anyone to prove him wrong. And besides, Al is now a rich and famous Filmmaker, loved by Follywood stars and politicians – Al has the support of the rich and famous. Al has been on Nofrac Windfree’s show. Al has street cred; outside of the Village, no one has heard of the Mayor.
Sadly, the Mayor could not prove that Mischievous Invisible Flying Monkeys do not exist.
Al’s argument wins by popular acclaim.
The Village votes to recall and exile (former) Mayor Occam Letsfrac.
The new Village leaders erect a statue of Al Foxedup.
And, everyone (except for the Leprechauns) live happily ever after.
Is there a moral to this story?
I guess it would be that it is amazing to see how many people want to be Al Foxedup.
JS
Tags:
Thats funny, I dont care who you are....
I'm 5'4" and I take this whole parable as an insult!
And I'm showing "Gasland" at the Yellow Creek Theatre" this summer and you're all not invited.
That made my night. Well done, sir.
Flying Monkeys are a serious problem, especially the feral ones.
Are Flying Monkeys associated with Purple Squirrels? lol
© 2024 Created by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher). Powered by
h2 | h2 | h2 |
---|---|---|
AboutWhat makes this site so great? Well, I think it's the fact that, quite frankly, we all have a lot at stake in this thing they call shale. But beyond that, this site is made up of individuals who have worked hard for that little yard we call home. Or, that farm on which blood, sweat and tears have fallen. [ Read More ] |
Links |
Copyright © 2017 GoMarcellusShale.com