The pipeline contractor was pulled of the job in shock. The 12'' pipe was laid out ready to weld. They said they never had this happen ever. They were moving to WV. The rumor here is the well is a dud. I can't believe they spent millions on the ROW for nothing. If I was running CNX heads would roll. Sad indeed!
Something suggests there's going to be a whole lot of fracking activity suddenly grind to a halt and move out of PA to WV or TX or wherever until the issue of ROC/Fracs constituting trespass is resolved better in Briggs case.
CNX took a full core on this >$14M well. It's hard to imagine they themselved would be surprised by what was down there unless somehow the frac job was a total screw up.
Incidentally, a quick back of the envelope calc on 5MMcf/day says at Fri close of $2.31 for Dominion South this "dud" of a well would generate $4.158M USD in 1 year of sales, and even at a 1/8th royalty that's more than $500K. A really good Marcellus well's-worth of several years back. Will it stay flat for 7 years at 5MMcf/day? Investors won't like it, analysts will kvetch, but a person could do worse.
If they can have that production remain 'flat' for seven years, THAT will be the real story.
According to my research, in Central PA, on average, the newer Utica wells have a decidedly steeper decline curve than the 'typical' recently produced Marcellus well. That may be true for only my area of interest, but it is an eye-opener when you view the comps.
I truly hope they can 'flatten' the decline curve, but I am not optimistic.
Bullfrex, could you link to that curve data? It's 180° different than the published type-curves I've seen. CNX has been touting a 14-18 mo flat peak at 25+ MMcf day and.3.5Bcf Estate Ultimate Recovery per 1000' of lateral on Aikens and Gaut Deep Dry Utica wells, and recently expressed the same confidence for this Marchand 3M completion.
Anyone hearing any new news about what has happened here? The ROW is under going a spraying of straw mulch. The mounds of dirt remain piled up. Are there any future plans for this ROW? Maybe another pipeline or two possibly!
One other possibility occurred to me. When EQT abandoned it's Armstrong Co Dry Utica plans and walked away from a permitted Kittanning well, it was said the production was committed to a powerplant. Could this be the case here, was this substituted? A completion might look a whole lot different, as might takeaway
Takeaway flow would be to a DTI pipeline near Punxsutawney and then to the northeast towards the Renova, PA storage fields. What do you mean by substitution of the EQT production plans and how would it impact the completion and takeaway of this well?
SK, I sent you a friend request. Maybe we can exchange decline curve data?
SK - is there a public source for this information?
My source on the EQT commitment was an attorney/consultant dishing inside info. The rest is just me asking if anyone knows something similar about what CNX might have up their sleeve yet to rescue this well from what otherwise looks like disaster