Opinions regarding the best stacked play areas.

If you have land and had your choice were it was for the best stacked play area...were would it be.

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Permalink Reply by bo boboski on July 9, 2018 at 1:50pm

Guernsey county,Ohio

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on July 10, 2018 at 12:04am

Osceola Twp, Tioga Co., PA

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 10, 2018 at 12:52am

Bullfrex , how many layers are 'stacked ' in Northern Tioga , Pa ? 

Permalink Reply by Robert Bond on July 10, 2018 at 1:06am

Sounds good to me!!!  Guernsey county is a great place.

Permalink Reply by jason irvine on July 10, 2018 at 9:57am
Thanks for all the info
Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on July 10, 2018 at 2:39am

Ralph,

I believe only two; the Marcellus and Utica. Old Timer has some good inside info on the area, as he posted above. I will yield to the power! lol

Old Timer,

In your research, is there any area in Tioga Co. that could be a 'stacked play' opportunity?

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on July 10, 2018 at 7:12am

Thanks OT.

I have seen recently a 'map' of the Utica formation in Tioga Co., and it seems the thickest rock is in the SW quadrant of the county, but most of the current Utica wells have been drilled in the North and NE quadrant of TC.

Is that because the formation is deeper in the SW quadrant, making it too expensive to develop in the current price environment?

Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on July 10, 2018 at 5:05am

Stacked plays in Appalachia?

The best would be along the river and east into WV and PA.  If you look through some of Range Energy's, CNX's, EQT's, and/or Antero Resources' presentations, you will see where they made some really good Utica throughout south west PA, in northern WV and in the WV panhandle. 

Range's Sportsman club well in Washington County, PA created quite the stir a few years back - it was a monster.  This was followed by a series of huge Utica wells, through Greene, Washington Counties PA, and even farther east in Westmoreland County. There were a number of big Utica Wells in WV as well, with Magnum Hunter (pre-bankruptcy) bringing in large wells in Tyler WV.  Others operators, such as SWN brought in some decent wells in Wetzel and in the WV Panhandle.

The Utica gets deeper as you trend east, and is more expensive to drill.  However, the wells are much more productive as the formation is even more 'over-pressured' than it is in south east Ohio.  Actually both formations trend deeper as you go east, and the Marcellus goes from wet gas to dry gas.  Most of the pubco's company's have a 'wet/dry' line indicated on their maps.

There are some challenges when you have  'wet' marcellus sitting on top of 'dry utica' as most gathering systems tend to be geared for one type of gas or the other.

At the end of the day, the best stacked is probably NW WV and SW PA - Greene County will be a monster when EQT gets their act together.

In addition to the Utica and Marcellus, there is also shallower horizontal development potential in the Upper Devonian - this is primarily in SW PA (you essentially have a triple stack of Upper Devonian, Marcellus, and Utica).  However, economics are still challenging.

Finally, some have been experimenting with the Trenton and Black River.  The reality is nothing is a sure thing, and there is always potential for the next best thing to come along. 

Outside of the Ohio River Valley, most of the pay in OH is viewed as a single zone play (but the point pleasant/utica is one dang good zone in some places for a whole host of factors).  Places such as the Powder River Basin and DJ Basin to a lesser extent, and the Permian, Delaware, and Mid-Con basins to a much higher degree are known for being true 'stacked' plays with multiple horizons and multiple formations.

If you look at slides 17 - 20 of the attached presentation, you will get a sense of where the best part of each formation/zone lays.  Keep in mind this is a slight dated (2015) presentation and there has been a large increase in data and knowledge since then.  Additionally, Range, like all public companies, tend to insert a large amount of 'bias' into their public maps to make their acreage look like the best.

RRC%202015%20Range%20Resources%20DUG%20East%206-24-2015.pdf

Permalink Reply by Ralph cramdon on July 10, 2018 at 7:28am

Good post Jeffery ... 

 Permian Basin / Delaware Basin has got to be the best stacked play in the USA ............ 

Permalink Reply by jason irvine on July 10, 2018 at 10:11am
Great info. I have 80 acres on the border of wetzel and tyler counties in wv. We are in the 1250 1275 btu range in the marcellus...wet gas. Were not far from the utica test wells along the river. We just recently signed a lease with antero. Our first lease expired in january. Thank you all for responding.
Permalink Reply by Jeffrey Beunier on July 12, 2018 at 5:25am

here's an article/post from BTU Analytics that you may find helpful

https://btuanalytics.com/update-on-dry-utica/

Stacked Pay? An Update on Dry Utica

View all posts by Marissa Anderson

Being able to drill multiple horizons in a play, as emphasized in regions like the Permian and STACK, increases the drilling location inventory and longevity of a play. What about Appalachia? Utica production has primarily been focused in Ohio; however, the resource spans well into Pennsylvania and West Virginia, states where drilling has primarily targeted the Marcellus. Since the Utica sits under the Marcellus, this gives producers in region the potential for a ‘stacked pay’ opportunities, providing upside to drilling inventory and production. Since the Utica gets relatively deeper and drier moving east, it’s often referred to as ‘dry Utica’ in Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Despite several noteworthy wells with impressive IP rates, since it is deeper, economics can be hindered by higher costs. EQT, who produced the monstrous, well-known Scotts Run dry Utica well, suspended their deep Utica testing program in middle of last year to focus on the Marcellus. Lately though, discussion of the dry Utica is making an appearance in producer earnings, particularly with the ‘stacked pay’ potential it provides. Two companies, CNX Resources and National Fuel Gas (Seneca Resources), report actively developing this resource in their outlook.

Looking at horizontal wells that have started producing since 2013, it is clear that dry Utica development in Pennsylvania and West Virginia is still in its infancy, with less than 200 producing wells tagged as targeting the Utica/Point Pleasant formation, compared to over 5,500 Marcellus wells, as shown in the figure below. Note this is leveraging data identifying the target formation as reported to the states. Key operators which brought on dry Utica wells in 2017 include: Shell, JKLM, and National Fuel Gas, all focused in central and northeast Pennsylvania, and CNX Resources, which is focused further south in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania.

Looking at production data, the overall average IP rates in 2017 for Utica/Point Pleasant wells are in line with the Marcellus. Focusing on the key operators targeting the Utica, the average IP rates in the Utica for CNX Resources, National Fuel Gas and Shell are all higher than the Marcellus, with CNX and Shell materially higher. CNX Resources brought on two highly productive wells at the end of last year. Note, however, there are far fewer wells for Utica which makes it difficult to understand how things may trend if more development occurs.

Going one step further, the relative economics of Utica wells in Pennsylvania and West Virginia appear less favorable than the Marcellus, as shown in the figure below. However, operators with development plans that include the Utica generally have Utica wells that are outperforming their Marcellus wells. CNX Resources, National Fuel Gas, and Shell are likely to continue to develop the Utica if well performance trends continue.

Ultimately, the dry Utica remains a very small portion of overall drilling activity in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, but the resource potential is there, particularly as several producers continue to delineate this acreage. Over the long term, the dry Utica provides upside to production out of Appalachia. Check out the Upstream Outlook and Northeast Gas Outlook to continue following production trends in the Utica, and the E&P Positioning Report to understand how economics are evolving in the region.

Author: Marissa Anderson

Marissa Anderson is a Senior Energy Analyst for BTU Analytics, LLC. She has a diverse 10 years of experience in the energy industry including fundamental analysis, investor relations and engineering. Prior to joining BTU Analytics, Marissa was a Senior Investor Relations Analyst with MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P., and a Senior Energy Analyst with Bentek Energy where she focused on the Natural Gas Liquids market. Marissa holds a B.S. in Chemical Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines, an M.S. in Global Energy Management from the University of Colorado Denver, and is a licensed professional engineer in the state of Colorado.

Permalink Reply by Bullfrex on July 12, 2018 at 9:09am

Thank you Jeffrey-very informative.

The chart showing Wellhead Breakevens by Reservoir seems to be cutoff? with the Shell data missing? I would be interested in their data, if it is in fact what is missing from the chart. They are our producer, and we like to see how they 'stack up' (pun intended) in Tioga County and the neighboring counties.

Would it be possible to see that side of the chart? Thanks in advance

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