Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Hunter on January 27, 2011 at 9:21am

Let me try again Gents.  I am new to this, so I can only get my head around one unit of measure for production.  That is Million cubic feet per day (MMcf/day).  To make it easy, what is a fair estimate, in MMcf/day, for 1 well bore lateral in PA.  I can then do the math for a pad with multiple well bore laterals.  In my specific case, the gas company is talking about a pad with 6 well bores (laterals).  So once I know what 1 lateral might produce in PA (in MMcf/day), I will mulitply X 6 for the total production.  Thanks. 

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Permalink Reply by FXEF on January 27, 2011 at 10:53am

Rural,

 

I'm not really sure what you are trying to figure, but each well is unique in itself. The area of PA the well is located, the lateral length and number of fracture stages will all play a part on the volume of gas a well will produce per day. A well will decline over time, tight gas plays like the Marcellus will have a decline rate similar to this: 1st Year – 70%, 2nd Year – 33%, 3rd Year – 22%, 4th Year – 17%, 5th Year – 13%, 6th Year – 11%, 7th Year – 9%, 8th Year – 8%, 9th Year – 7%, 10th Year – 6%.

 

It has been stated previously that the IPs range from 1.5 MMCFD to 10 MMCFD in PA, depending on the location of the well. If you are in an area where the majority of the wells come in at 10 MMCFD, then that is what you can expect.

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Permalink Reply by D Shea on January 27, 2011 at 5:00pm

Probably the best true source of info. is derived from the PA DEP Oil & Gas Reporting page from the PA DEP website. You can get actual production numbers there. Huge difference between NE PA vs. say SW PA. For example, if you were to search by operator and select Range Resources (most wells drilled in SW PA) one can see that except for a very small number of wells that are in the range of 2Mmcf per day, the vast majority of their wells are producing at under 1Mmcf per day. However in NE PA, the wells clearly tend to flow at higher rates. One would also have to consider if they are in a wet or dry gas area. Initial IP flow rates can be deceiving, whereas 12 month flow actual flow rates would allow one to do a better job at predicting royalties. Initial IP rates are often the numbers shared by the companies solely for the purposes of securing capital from lenders and impressing investors but don't translate well into what the owner of a parcel of land is going to see in terms of royalties over the course of a year. If you take the time however to peel back the onion a bit in most companies presentations to investment bankers you can usually find a slide or two showing typical Mmcf production  for the average lateral. https://www.paoilandgasreporting.state.pa.us/publicreports/Modules/...

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Permalink Reply by Farmhouse on January 27, 2011 at 12:09pm

Good comments. Thank you. 

I have previously read a royalty estimate rule of thumb is about $10 per day, per acre, per well. Can anyone substantiate this? Or is this a rural legend...?

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Permalink Reply by bill h on January 27, 2011 at 2:53pm

We're getting about 7, boilerplate lease, SE Bradford Co

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Permalink Reply by hunter777 on January 28, 2011 at 6:22am

From checks I've seen in the Susquehanna County area, figure between $6-10 in the second year of production. You'll want to ignore the first year's production as that can vary widely.

 

Be aware of the decline as mentioned in FXEF's post.

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Permalink Reply by Farmhouse on February 24, 2011 at 8:01am

But again is that per acre, per day, PER WELL/LATERAL??

In other words: 20 acres in the unit with 6 producing laterals.

would you figure 20 x $6 x 30 (days) x 6 wells? = $21,600 per month (approx) for the first two years? Then declining.

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Permalink Reply by Hunter on January 28, 2011 at 10:11am

Thanks for all the comments.  I think it finally got through my cranium.  The reason I was after production in MMcfd was to plug the numbers into a royalty estimator found at www.geology.com (in website's search window, place "natural gas royalty estimation").  The estimator will only compute royalty based upon MMcfd.

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