Production Decline Curve Data

From Marcellus Gas.org:

In an effort to gain a better understanding of what the true production drop-off is for PA unconventional gas wells, our database team developed a more comprehensive analysis model, and found that the per-day production rate of wells declines 70% over a 3 year period.

 

Our analysis is based on a sampling of over 3,500 wells with reported production values in at least one of the PA DEP reporting periods between July 2010 and June 2013.

 

In the first 6 months of production, our results show the average value of gas produced each day is

$12,785.00 (3,816 Mcf). The average per-day value drops to $3,785.00 (1,130 Mcf) when a well has been in production for 31 to 36 months - a drop of 70%.

 

The largest drop-off (26%) occurs between the first and second 6 month production periods.

 

  PERIOD  |  DOLLARS   |  GAS MCF

 

 6 Months | $12,785.00 | 3,816 Mcf

12 Months | $ 9,473.00 | 2,826 Mcf

18 Months | $ 7,451.00 | 2,224 Mcf

24 Months | $ 6,090.00 | 1,818 Mcf

30 Months | $ 5,110.00 | 1,525 Mcf

36 Months | $ 3,786.00 | 1,130 Mcf

 

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Permalink Reply by Alan Emerick on October 18, 2013 at 3:59am

I have a problem with the reported gas flows reported from wells. Small bits of information indicate that some wells flow free of compression against the collector line pressure and some are on compression stations which reduce the pressure the gas from the well flows. Big difference and might well be the major difference in well proformance. One well which was reported in detail showed 1.2 mcf @ 3500psi backpressure, 3@ 2400psi backpressure, and > 6 mcf after " surface equipment was installed". Cabot, in one of their reports attributes their great well flows in part to the connection to compression. I would think that a valuable tool to evaluate well production would be the choke, backpressure, ability to get gas from well head, etc. and not just production numbers without understanding the variables. Cabot appears to be best at getting great gas flow, but how??

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