The Shale Effect on the Election

Before the election, there was some discussion of Obama benefiting from the boost that shale exploration gave PA and OH. I think there is some evidence, at least on a micro level, that this wasn't the case. 

 

In Ohio

Just because it is interesting, compare the 2008 Ohio Results and the 2012 Ohio Result (you will have to click on the state)

I count 6 counties that flipped into the Republican column: Belmont, Noble, Athens, Jefferson, Monroe, Tuscarawas.

 

In Pennsylvania

Though no counties flipped, there is some evidence that there may have been a "shale effect." In several counties where shale drilling is strong, Romney either had a considerably better turnout and/or Obama had depressed turnout. Consider the following.

 

Butler County. In 2008, McCain won the county with 52,294 to 29,882 votes. This year, Romney won the county with 59,416 to 28,385; accounting for a 8,619 pro-Republican vote swing.

 

Washington County saw a larger turnout for Romney and a lower turnout for Obama as well.

2008 - 48,753 (Romney) - 44,286 (Obama)

2012 - 50,455 (Romney) - 38,503 (Obama). This accounts for a 7,405 pro-Republican vote swing.

And, it doesn't end there. Several counties in Northeast PA saw similar swings.

 

So, what role did oil and gas development play in the election? And, does this give us any indication of the the future political direction of the areas that benefit from shale exploration?

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Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 8, 2012 at 4:00am

a more noticable affect will be when the epa and the interior dept .start after fracking. the administration ,hours after election ,revived the u.n. small arms treaty.  we are living in historic times. a good person to talk to would be whoever is in charge of bringing business into youngstown. i heard on the radio that this person said he was getting phone calls  every day from all over the country and the world of companies wanting to come into youngstown because of the boom. ask him if the calls have dropped off.

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 8, 2012 at 10:20am

jeb, i was just using youngstown as the canary in the coal mine. all of ohio is going to lose.

Permalink Reply by Lance Nimmo on November 8, 2012 at 8:12am

The shale effect is minimal at best. Overall, landowners are a fraction of the population. It has came down to bums wanting free stuff. There are more of them than ever, so more of their votes than ever. Pretty simple.

Permalink Reply by craig on November 8, 2012 at 8:49am

Lance, You are absolutely right. They don't have to be bums either.... In Pa, the 'common law marriage' hasn't been in effect for many years. I came to find out this year that here's what can and is going on: Man and woman live in the same house, have kids. The man works, the woman doesn't. The woman files for food stamps and all the other freebies, AND receives them because she is a single mom because they are not legally married. I know this as fact from my attorney. So the trick is to not get married. I have one customer(that i know of) that does this. Her man has a good paying job, they have lived together for almost 10 yrs. She gets a cash benefit as well as food stamps, and drives one of her man's cars which is an Infinity G35!!!

I firmly believe that the downfall of our country is/will be that those fully dependent upon our gov't for their well being are still allowed to vote. If you are not a productive member of society in some way(with few exceptions), you shouldn't be allowd to vote as you are effectively a Ward of the State. I know this goes against all we stand for, but it is one way out of the mess our gov't has created. 

Permalink Reply by Barbara on November 8, 2012 at 9:08am

Craig, You are absolutely on the right track, too bad this will never happen but food for thought. Thank you for posting it.

 

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 8, 2012 at 11:05am

i'd agree with more oversight fang, twenty years ago. what do we oversee now? chinese money that is coming to an end. california will be an interesting study in economics, very quickly i think.

Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on November 8, 2012 at 11:36am

Did you read the post? lol. 6 former democrat counties flipped. And, Landowners (mineral owners) are only a fraction of those who benefit from the industry.

Permalink Reply by gary smith on November 8, 2012 at 1:38pm

you're right,i missed the whole point of the post. the area will continue to be influenced in the manner you presented. maybe the rest of the country will notice and help the area to get the whole country energy independent.

Permalink Reply by Jim Litwinowicz on November 8, 2012 at 3:37pm

There are several reasons other than shale that have caused people to flip to Republican;

They bought O's line of BS last time...and knew better this time

Many whites voted for him hoping it would close the racial divide...it didn't.

People were just tired of Bush ...now tired of Dems

People saw what Kasich did and liked it.

But there are also widespread shale affects outside the drilling zone. Lorain has two steel mothballed mills running now. Youngstown has a brand new one. A company in Akron hired a couple hundred people to build large tanks.

Makes it hard to determine the full affect.

Permalink Reply by Jim Litwinowicz on November 9, 2012 at 2:52am

Sorry, I guess I should have explained better. I was trying to say that the influence of shale extends beyond the drilling zone...not to say that this made voters flip their votes. Steel workers are mostly unionized and they vote as their masters tell them.

What is interesting to me is that most every swing state went for Obama and pundits say that is because unemployment is lower in them.  But almost every swing state has a Republican governor and a Republican legislature. Pa, Oh, Mi, Wis, Iowa, Virginia, Florida.  So the Republicans did too good a job in their states and cost us the presidency.

Permalink Reply by Dan on November 9, 2012 at 5:13am

Jim,

Do you think legitimate rape, attempted forced invasive ultrasound, dumping of millions of dollars of out-of state super-PAC money to influence local and state elections had anything to do with how the vote stacked up.  It seems to me the GOP has slowly disenfranchised group after group of voters to chase after a farther and farther right view almost to the point of playing outside the sidelines.

  The effective highest tax rates in the US went as high as 94% in 1944, 70% thru the 70's and down to 35% today.  The claim of more jobs by lowering the high tax brackets does not add up.  If this was even close to true we would have been begging foreign workers to relocate here for decades.  I would conclude shale had little to do with this election cycle.

We will slowly march toward energy independence in spit of all the extremely lame candidates that have paraded by in recent time.

Many of us here in Ohio will not be voting to reelect Kasich when his term is up.

Permalink Reply by Dan on November 9, 2012 at 5:15am

Also, the fact that in the past Romney  claimed he would be farther left than Ted Kennedy  couldn't have helped him.

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