timing

I heard that it may take 4-5 years for the gas companies to come back to landowners in Sullivan Co due to the fact that they may lease state land 1st. Is this true?

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Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 2, 2010 at 2:15am
If you can read a map, you can clearly see that the Geology identifies Sullivan and Delaware counties in the CORE area of the Marcellus fairway (bernstien MAP)as well as is the UTICA (other Docs)

you can call me a liar all you want, but your fight is not with me , but with the Geologists, the NYSERDA and Fortuna Energy, Berstien Research, among hudreds of others..

So please keep your disinformation out of this forum, until you can disprove their background and comments..

at this point we have not seen any of your credentials or any 3rd party references to validate your arguements..

I never claimed to be a in this business (unlike you ), just a land owner, who has done alot of research and providing that research for other landowners to evaluate themselves..
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Permalink Reply by Robin Fehrenbach Scala on April 1, 2010 at 4:09am
By the way, heard from a reliable source that NY State will start issuing marcellus permits later this summer.
Permalink Reply by Jeff Ferreira on April 1, 2010 at 6:11am
yea!! Sounds good to me. THanks
Permalink Reply by Paul Butski on April 1, 2010 at 7:26am
How far west will Marcellus leasing go? I am in eastern and southern part of Alleghany county, about 6 miles as the crow flies from the PA border. near Wellsville NY. I own 100 acres and was wondering what and if I could expect anything and how much you think they will be paying if anything?
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 1, 2010 at 7:40am
Thank you for that ray of hope.. ;-) but I am sure someone willcome along and screw things up>.
This is NY after all....
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 1, 2010 at 7:47am
not likely as Sullivan county sits smack dab in the middle of Core Drilling area of the Marcellus as well as UTICA and few other formations.. once Drilling is permitted , expect a flood of offers..
Permalink Reply by Nancy Famiola on April 1, 2010 at 9:03am
Haha. Jean back up your statement that Sullivan county New York is in the core of all the drilling of marcellus wells. Lets keep in mind there have been hundreds of wells drilled in counties like Bradford and tioga.

Simple question which I know you wont answer:

How many Marcellus wells have been drilled in Sullivan County, New York since 2007?

I expect you to avoid the question completely and bring up some other topic or post some random pdfs. Am I right?
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 1, 2010 at 11:57am
Well you are either dumb or an antagonist.... Every geologist in the country is screaming the same thing... and they are already signing leases in excess of 6k in the area..
and we were just told today by several sources that drilling permits may be issued in NYS as early as Summer..
this could be BS of course but, we have several NYS coalitions that have called meetings for the next weeks.. ours is on 4/15
so I will know more then,but for now reserve your thoughts unless you can provide some kind of evidence from a reputable source..
you post things and backup nothing
Permalink Reply by Nancy Famiola on April 1, 2010 at 12:25pm
You didn't answer my simple question - as predicted.
Permalink Reply by Jean Michel LeTennier on April 1, 2010 at 3:08pm
you are a piece of work.. so much disinformation...
we call it NYS DEC regulations.. or lack there of..
PA was wide open in 2005-9 and that is the only reason there is drilling now or any leases... and by the way that's about to change if you believe the newspapers
Once NYS DEC issues the regulations the companies will flock here, the Geology does not lie... nor does every single Geologist in the Country..

only people like you
Permalink Reply by Paul Butski on April 2, 2010 at 2:27am
Are you saying drilling opportunities will be better in NY than PA? Im just curious cause I know they are getting ready to drill 4000 plus wells in PA. They are opening old hotels with the intent of out of area workers who will be flocking into regions of PA who hasn't seen business in years. NY is missing out big time not just from the landowner leases but the revenue from workers and the new work force that would be created with this project. I am a landowner in Alleghany county NY and I hope NY realizes how much we are all loosing with leases,jobs and business opportunities.
Permalink Reply by Nancy Famiola on April 2, 2010 at 3:28am
Paul,

Jean has a stake in New York marcellus shale with his own property, so a lot of his comments are merely wishful thinking. The activity in New York will not come close to the activity in Pennsylvania. This is due to a couple reasons:

1) The shale is not as prospective in New York as it is in Pennsylvania. One of the largest reasons why is because the wells are very shallow in new york. The best results come at depths between 7000' and 8500'. New york depths are more along the lines of 5500' and below. That is a major issue. If you look at the drilling activity in Pennsylvania, the overwhelming majority of the drilling has occured at least 10 miles AWAY from the New York/Pennsylvania border. Jean acts as though these companies are drilling right on the state line just waiting for them to be able to cross it. That isn't the case at all. If you actually look at the permits and drilling activity, the northern 1/3 of the northernmost pennsylvania counties (Tioga, Bradford, Susquehanna) are left largely untouched, or have very few wells drilled or permitted. This is because the farther north you go, the shallower it is, and the less prospective it is. If companies aren't willing to drill within 10 miles of the state border, what makes Jean think they would want to go even farther north into New York?

2) Companies have developed their lease position in Pennsylvania already. Unlike any other play, the amount of acreage a company holds doesnt really have to do with how much acreage is out there, it is more dictated by how much money they can afford to spend. Geologic reasons aside - these companies have been forced to focus their leasing dollars in Pennsylvania. These companies have already spent billions of dollars on leases in Pennsylvania, and they already have hundreds of thousands of acres to develop here. They are set up here and are already way overloaded with acreage. If New York opens up and they decide to lease there, they will risk losing their leases in Pennsylvania due to them not being able to drill it (leases in Pennsylvania will expire). Because these companies already set-up shop in Pennsylvania, there will be no way that New York will get the attention on the leasing side as Pennsylvania.

Yes, the shale is still there in New York - but these companies have already expended the majority of their leasing budgets in Pennsylvania. Now Pennsylvania has over 1000 producing Marcellus wells, is more proved up and is a lot more valuable than New York. The Industry likes to see proved acreage, and right now Pennsylvania has a 1400 well head start. If New York opens, expect lease prices to be similar to those offered in McKean county, Pennsylvania (250-500/acre).

The governmental leaders in New York like to say the shale isnt going anywhere and the companies can wait. Well, that may be true, but these companies' leasing ships have already docked in Pennsylvania and by the looks of their success, they're not going anywhere even if New York is finally opened up. Their plate is full already.

You have every right to be upset with the regulators up there. Their thought process on how this industry works is pretty amazing. Opening up New York now is a non-issue. It's just too late. The majority of the money has already been invested in Pennsylvania. Sorry Paul, and I mean that.

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