if you look at natural gas prices back in 2011-2012 the prices were terrible trading under $2 but energy companies were leasing everything around paying $thousands per acre bonus spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Fast forward to 2018, natural gas prices are trading over $3, the cracker plant is being built, multiple other big gas projects are popping up, gas lines are being built, and energy companies are doing very little leasing other then select areas? I would think if natural gas prices keep working up we should see more leasing activity, I’m surprised it’s so quiet in so many areas?
Many of the E&Ps are leased in enough areas to keep them busy for some time....and they are enjoying the low hanging fruit of their labors.
There will have to be a sustained uptick in NG prices, takeaway and demand before the 'wild west' days return....if ever.
In my humble opinion.
i don't see a repeat of the early boom ever. some isolated pockets in highest areas in a different way. like Bull said there is at least 20yrs. drilling inventory. companys generally don't compete with one another for a long time now. companys like Shell have drilled acreage in shotgun pattern which adds strategic control and now at the end of secondary terms they offer less going forward. leasing is following a maturing market pattern in that i believe will continue just in a different way than the old "boom".
Why was there a boom in the first place during that time period? Natural gas was at multi year lows, the infrastructure wasn’t here to get the gas/oil out, no cracker plant talk at that time??? Since that 2011-2012 lease boom there have been multiple gas projects built and many more planned, to me now that Natural gas is over 50% higher and the cracker plant and other new projects will need a bunch of gas that companies would be more active now then back then?
I think in general (very similar to what is happening in the Permian right now), companies are trying to get anything and everything. Investors liked to see 15-20% or higher growth rates and companies had to add land to produce more gas faster. Back when prices were low, the majority of the acreage wasn't leased and companies went where they thought the "core" was. Fast forward to today and the core has been identified. Investors no longer want to see large growth rates and we will see a steady stream of gas from Appalachia. Companies are only going to have look for areas they are actively drilling in to lease and more than likely that acreage is already leased by another company. Unless a new formation pops up, or the PA Utica really takes off, it will be awhile before we see any fast paced movement in Appalachia.
backup a few years. "in the beginning" gas peaked aprox. 14$ pre-shale. G. Mitchell and co. figured out hydro frac. in Barnett. the industry finally got wind since secrets can't be kept forever. geologists knew there was gas in shale throughout appalachia. companys like Range and CHK quietly began leasing up here say maybe pre 05 cheap. cat jumps out of the bag and we all here about it. BOOM 06 to 08. that's when companys beat doors down offered big money and competing amongst themselves wild west style. 08 financial collapse came along and they decide to stake areas and stop bidding against each other. now it's virtually all locked up and as time goes will be consolided into a few large producers. our energy complex is now addicted to NG. it simply MUST continue to be produced or an economic dislocation WILL occur. the weak link is the capital supply to e&p's hence consolidation into strong hands. all areas with gas will be produced someday date uncertain. tech will extract more from the field and all will eventually be produced. the boom now is a total NG production boom.
We are located in Butler County, PA, Washington Township. Landlady beginning contacts for next drilling unit in that area.
Offer is $2000 per acre, 14% royalties, and get this....with a deduction for transportation costs.
Landlady is not able to provide ANY figures for transportation costs. She says there is no way of knowing that. That sounds like a huge "red flag" to me. They could charge as much as they want.
So...I need some opinions...does this sound like the going deals? I know folks who plan to sign for that. Is there any negotiation? Or does that not exist for the small property owner.
Is the Landlady working for Edgemarc Energy? I know they are leasing in Butler County.
BOP land services for Edgemarc.
I figured it was them, they mainly lease in Butler County.
I'm new to this since our last go round back in 2011-12 when we worked with BCLG.
Any thoughts about this offer?
I follow Butler County since I own acreage there, I know they were offering $1750 and 14% earlier this year so at least they are upping the offer a little? I don’t know how many companies are currently leasing in Butler County so I don’t know if there is a competition issue or not? I do know natural gas and oil have been going up nicely and are forecasted to go much higher later this year. If you have a lawyer you use you probably want to have them look at the offer and get their take.