Ohio DNR update geology and activity for utica with possible changes for harrison county

http://www.dnr.state.oh.us/portals/10/energy/Utica/Utica-PointPleas...

 

I looked over the presentation and from what I can gather it looks like everything wet to oil has shifted to the west on the maps???  If you look at page 24 the buell well has only 5% wellhead liquids but some others have over 49% well head liquids yet in the few reports of well production that have come out the buell well had the most liquids per day?????? Any feedback would be appreciated.

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I am also having trouble reconciling this with what we already know about the Buell numbers.

Maybe the map is wrong !

lets hope so!

Maybe CHK inflated the original numbers somehow to attract investors.  Maybe the map values represent the sustainable production numbers?

I think CHK and all the other billion dollar companies know more than the dnr, no offense.

In an investor report CHK has claimed that one of their wells--it did not specify which one--had 750,000bbl of EUR. This claim makes it the best well they've ever drilled. I have a feeling that Josh is correct.

Thats great news ! I bet it's the Buell well.  That is not based on anything other than a hunch ! But it would explain why Markwest is building in Cadiz and Chk is building in Scio. The Markwest Ceo said in an interview that the producers dictate where to build the plants and Harrison county is " The Spot "  Lets not try to over think whats going on here. So far the best producing well is in Harrison County, The two big facilities to process wet gas are in Harrison County , Major pipeline infrastructure is planned for Harrison County and now a seismic testing company is hand delivering letters to Harrison county landowners who live almost 2 hours away. It looks pretty obvious to me but thats just my take. I am sure we all would love to hear what everyone else has to say on the subject .  Good day to all !!

As I look at the maps, I don't see much of a difference from previous maps showing Harrison County's place the transition.  We have always been shown in the wet gas area, with the transition to dry gas happening somewhere just across the border into Jefferson.  As far as that 5% liquids on the Buell Well, that is just a btu breakdown based on the original numbers that Chesapeake reported in their well completion report.  If you remember, in that report they reported 6.1MMcfd gas and 59bod liquids.  If you convert the liquids to gas equivalent by multiplying it by 6000 (a generally accepted conversion factor for comparing btu values) you get 59 x 6000 = 354000 cubic feet of gas equivalent, and adding that in to the 6.1MMcfd gives the 6.5MMcfe/d number that you see on page 24 of the report, and if you divide the liquids portion by the total you get 0.354/6.5=0.05, or 5% which is the liquid percent they show.  BUT, as we know, the latest reported numbers from Chesapeake for the Buell Well are 9.5MMcfd gas and 1425bod liquids.  If you convert these liquids to equivalent gas you get 1425 x 6000 = 8.55MMcfe and added together with the gas you get a total of 18MMcfe/d.  Then if you take the liquids as a percent of that you get 8.55/18=47.5% liquids.   The report does mention the latest Buell numbers on page 33, but still uses the older reported number on page 24, so there is a discrepancy there.

The bottom line is that I don't see anything that downgrades the assessment of Harrison County in that report.  One slide that I thought was interesting (page 36) is that the wet areas of the Eagle Ford and the Utica are about the same size, 12.8 million acres vs. 11 million, respectively.

Also, the ODNR report reminds us that the Buell Well has been in production for almost a year now, and Chesapeake has to file an actual production report with the State by March 31st, so very soon for the first time we will have some real numbers to look at instead of these single-day or peak-flow numbers.  That will be so much more useful to predict what the future nearby wells might do.

Dan, I'm thinking anyone east or south of Cadiz are the ones who are seeing a major change in what had previously been identified as the "wet gas" area.

Dan, what are your thoughts on Adrienne's post?

 

Adrienne and Ann,

I stand corrected. You are right Adrienne, there is a shift in the wet gas band.  Below is a comparison of how it was depicted through Harrison County in illustrations in August of 2011 vs how it is depicted now:

As you say Adrienne, it shows that townships in the eastern edge of the county are no longer considered in the wet zone, while southwestern townships now are.  How accurate they are is still a question, although one would assume that the newer depiction is generally more accurate than the older.  I wonder how it will look after another year of drilling and production?

Chesapeake just paid the highest amount to date that I could find to Rhino LLC for 1500 acres. THey paid 6000 ac and 20% royalty. From what I could gather this is for land east of cadiz. I will go with the money for now.

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