Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Adrienne Baker on March 22, 2012 at 8:32am

I am also having trouble reconciling this with what we already know about the Buell numbers.

Permalink Reply by scott jackovitch on March 22, 2012 at 11:49am

Maybe the map is wrong !

Permalink Reply by ray schmidt on March 22, 2012 at 1:02pm

lets hope so!

Permalink Reply by HB on March 22, 2012 at 6:11pm

Maybe CHK inflated the original numbers somehow to attract investors.  Maybe the map values represent the sustainable production numbers?

Permalink Reply by Josh on March 22, 2012 at 9:29pm

I think CHK and all the other billion dollar companies know more than the dnr, no offense.

Permalink Reply by 0i7okn54zwbdo on March 23, 2012 at 12:57am

In an investor report CHK has claimed that one of their wells--it did not specify which one--had 750,000bbl of EUR. This claim makes it the best well they've ever drilled. I have a feeling that Josh is correct.

Permalink Reply by scott jackovitch on March 23, 2012 at 1:26am

Thats great news ! I bet it's the Buell well.  That is not based on anything other than a hunch ! But it would explain why Markwest is building in Cadiz and Chk is building in Scio. The Markwest Ceo said in an interview that the producers dictate where to build the plants and Harrison county is " The Spot "  Lets not try to over think whats going on here. So far the best producing well is in Harrison County, The two big facilities to process wet gas are in Harrison County , Major pipeline infrastructure is planned for Harrison County and now a seismic testing company is hand delivering letters to Harrison county landowners who live almost 2 hours away. It looks pretty obvious to me but thats just my take. I am sure we all would love to hear what everyone else has to say on the subject .  Good day to all !!

Permalink Reply by Dan on March 23, 2012 at 1:10am

As I look at the maps, I don't see much of a difference from previous maps showing Harrison County's place the transition.  We have always been shown in the wet gas area, with the transition to dry gas happening somewhere just across the border into Jefferson.  As far as that 5% liquids on the Buell Well, that is just a btu breakdown based on the original numbers that Chesapeake reported in their well completion report.  If you remember, in that report they reported 6.1MMcfd gas and 59bod liquids.  If you convert the liquids to gas equivalent by multiplying it by 6000 (a generally accepted conversion factor for comparing btu values) you get 59 x 6000 = 354000 cubic feet of gas equivalent, and adding that in to the 6.1MMcfd gives the 6.5MMcfe/d number that you see on page 24 of the report, and if you divide the liquids portion by the total you get 0.354/6.5=0.05, or 5% which is the liquid percent they show.  BUT, as we know, the latest reported numbers from Chesapeake for the Buell Well are 9.5MMcfd gas and 1425bod liquids.  If you convert these liquids to equivalent gas you get 1425 x 6000 = 8.55MMcfe and added together with the gas you get a total of 18MMcfe/d.  Then if you take the liquids as a percent of that you get 8.55/18=47.5% liquids.   The report does mention the latest Buell numbers on page 33, but still uses the older reported number on page 24, so there is a discrepancy there.

The bottom line is that I don't see anything that downgrades the assessment of Harrison County in that report.  One slide that I thought was interesting (page 36) is that the wet areas of the Eagle Ford and the Utica are about the same size, 12.8 million acres vs. 11 million, respectively.

Also, the ODNR report reminds us that the Buell Well has been in production for almost a year now, and Chesapeake has to file an actual production report with the State by March 31st, so very soon for the first time we will have some real numbers to look at instead of these single-day or peak-flow numbers.  That will be so much more useful to predict what the future nearby wells might do.

Permalink Reply by Adrienne Baker on March 23, 2012 at 7:02am

Dan, I'm thinking anyone east or south of Cadiz are the ones who are seeing a major change in what had previously been identified as the "wet gas" area.

Permalink Reply by Ann Koch on March 23, 2012 at 11:16am

Dan, what are your thoughts on Adrienne's post?

 

Permalink Reply by Dan on March 23, 2012 at 4:44pm

Adrienne and Ann,

I stand corrected. You are right Adrienne, there is a shift in the wet gas band.  Below is a comparison of how it was depicted through Harrison County in illustrations in August of 2011 vs how it is depicted now:

As you say Adrienne, it shows that townships in the eastern edge of the county are no longer considered in the wet zone, while southwestern townships now are.  How accurate they are is still a question, although one would assume that the newer depiction is generally more accurate than the older.  I wonder how it will look after another year of drilling and production?

Permalink Reply by Hunter on March 24, 2012 at 1:47am

Chesapeake just paid the highest amount to date that I could find to Rhino LLC for 1500 acres. THey paid 6000 ac and 20% royalty. From what I could gather this is for land east of cadiz. I will go with the money for now.

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